GABONESE PUBLIC BORED, POLITICIANS FASCINATED, BY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIBREVILLE 000688

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM GB
SUBJECT: GABONESE PUBLIC BORED, POLITICIANS FASCINATED, BY
IMPENDING LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

REF: LIBREVILLE 300

Classified By: DCM Katherine Dhanani. Reason: 1.4 (d).


1. (C) Summary: Most of the 877 candidates competing for 120
seats during Gabon's December 17 legislative elections have
no chance of success, regardless of whether the elections are
free and fair. The large majority of the winners will likely
come from President Bongo's Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG),
which currently holds 88 seats. Other parties that
participate in the coalition supporting the President had
hoped to combine slates with the PDG, but are being forced to
run alone, against PDG candidates in every constituency.
Opposition parties decided not to boycott this election after
Bongo agreed to meet some of their demands for electoral
reform. There is limited interest in the contest, although
some curiosity about whether Bongo promised opposition leader
Mamboundou assembly seats when Mamboundou left his refuge in
the South African Embassy in April. End summary.


2. (U) While the campaign for Gabon's December 17th
legislative election will officially begin only on December
2, the Gabonese political class is already fully engaged in
politicking. On November 16 the National Electoral
Commission announced that 877 candidates would compete for
the 120 seats in the National Assembly. President Bongo's
PDG is running candidates in all 120 constituencies, and
President Bongo began a program of travel to the provinces on
November 21, ostensibly to review progress on implementation
of his promised Acts for Gabon. Several opposition parties
are fielding broad slates, although their prospects of
success may be more narrowly linked to geographical
strengths: the Union of Gabonese People (UPG) has a slate of
96 candidates, and Zachary Myboto's newly registered Gabonese
Union for Democracy and Development (UGDD) is fielding 71.


3. (U) President Bongo's successful mediation of political
dialog in May paved the way for participation of the full
universe of opposition actors in this election. The
prospects for a fully democratic exercise looked relatively
dim in March when security forces launched an early morning
raid on the headquarters of opposition leader Pierre
Mamboundou. After escaping the March 21 raid, UPG leader
Mamboundou holed up in the South African Embassy until
holding an April 19 meeting with President Bongo (reftel).
The truce established at that time paved the way for
inter-party talks at which opposition leaders aired demands
for electoral reforms, backed by threats to boycott the
legislative elections. Fourteen parties supporting President
Bongo and twelve opposition parties met from May 12 to 24,
but failed to agree on most points. President Bongo listened
to both sides and announced his decisions on May 26. Among
the most important concessions to the opposition were
decisions to give an official copy of polling station results
to candidates' representatives, to discontinue the practice
of holding a separate round of military voting, and to create
a new, permanent electoral commission. Bongo refused
outright an opposition request to reinstate a second round of
balloting in races where no candidate gains a majority, and
yielded marginally to demands that a single ballot be
implemented, agreeing only to experiment with a single ballot
during local elections in 2007. Nevertheless, the opposition
parties unanimously accepted the deal offered by the
President and agreed to participate in the vote.


4. (C) The President also significantly shaped the elections
when he rejected appeals from some of his supporters, led by
Deputy Prime Minister Paul Mba Abessole of the Gathering for
Gabon (RPG),that he form a new coalition party, the Union
for a Presidential Majority, that would field a single
candidate in each constituency. Mba Abessole and other
leaders in the coalition supporting the President fear their
chances in direct competition with the better-financed PDG.
Bongo's decision has led to some interesting match-ups,
including a face off in one of Libreville's districts between
Prime Minister Jean Eyeghe Ndong and Vice PM Mba Abessole.
(Insiders say Abessole stands no chance of winning, but will
be bought off with a promise of continued prominence in the
cabinet.)


5. (C) Comment: The Gabonese public shows little interest in
this election, and with good reason: the important contest in
Gabon was held a year ago, when President Bongo won
re-election with an implausibly large mandate. (Bongo's
prominent role in laying the foundation for these legislative
elections is further evidence that the Presidency is the one
post that really matters in Gabon.) The president has
skillfully managed the pre-election period to avoid boycotts
or protests. The question now becomes the extent to which he

will seek to manage electoral outcomes. Many observers
believe that in April Bongo cut a deal with Mamboundou that
included a promise of a certain number of legislative seats
for the UPG. This suggests the election will be massaged to
create appropriate numbers of winners from different camps,
most plausibly before election day through the allocation of
resources, but possibly on election night when results are
compiled. PDG party barons, however, have their own human
and financial resources and appear unlikely to concede seats
even if the boss requests it. We will be surprised if the
PDG takes fewer than the 88 seats it won last time, although
opposition candidates may win more than the handful of seats
they won in 2001. (Most of the eight other parties
represented in the Assembly are members of the Bongo's
coalition, and most of the 12 independent legislators also
support the President.)
WALKLEY