NO SURPRISE IN SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE LEGISLATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIBREVILLE 000200

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
KINSHASA PASS BRAZZAVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2016
TAGS: PGOV GB
SUBJECT: NO SURPRISE IN SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE LEGISLATIVE
ELECTIONS-YET

REF: LIBREVILLE 180

Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER GLENN FEDZER FOR REASON 1.4 (B)


1. (U Summary: The MDFM ("Movement for the Democratic
Force of Change" -- the party of President Fradique de
Menezes) and the MLSTP ("Movement for the Liberation of Sao
Tome and Principe" -- the party of the Prime Minister) split
the vote in the March 26 Sao Tome and Principe (STP)
legislative elections, with ADI ("Independent Democratic
Alliance" -- the party of Patrice Trovoada) finishing third.
The MDFM took 22 seats, the MLSTP 20, ADI 12 and Novo Rumo
("New Direction") 1. ADI's strong showing puts Patrice
Trovoada in position to negotiate with the MDFM or MLSTP for
the best deal to join a governing coalition in Sao Tome's 55
seat assembly. The campaign and election were peaceful, but
26 voting places (out of a total of 232) were shut down by
local activists or boycotted on voting day as a means of
protesting local economic/infrastructure conditions.
International observers noted some minor technical problems
during the election and suspected incidents of vote buying,
but considered the vote to be generally free and fair. Those
polling stations that had to close or were boycotted March 26
are scheduled for a re-vote on Sunday, April 2 (as called for
in Sao Tome's voting laws),but the results are not
anticipated to affect significantly the outcome of the
legislative elections. There were 79,842 voters registered
for the elections, out of a total population of approximately
160,000. End Summary.


2. (C) Sao Tome and Principe -- considered by many to be
one of the few genuine democracies in this part of Africa --
concluded two-weeks of campaigning for legislative elections
with large rallies throughout Sao Tome on March 24. The
final day of campaigning was virtually a carnival, with
singing and dancing widespread and noisy political party
rallies taking place just a few blocks apart. The events
included a profusion of free hats, T-shirts, flags and paid
entertainment. The dirt-poor country seemed awash in
campaign paraphernalia As predicted by banker Acacio Bonfim
(reftel),the exchange rate for the local currency
temporarily strengthened due to inflow of hard currency
allegedly to finance the election. A twenty-year old dancer
performing at one rally was undecided on which party she
would vote for, but said her pay for the day (the equivalent
of 40 dollars, the monthly minimum wage) might help her make
a decision. Gabonese President Bongo appeared to be one
international contributor: on March 23, three days before the
election and a week after President de Menezes made a private
visit to Gabon, a planeload of campaign material for the MDFM
arrived from Libreville on an airline owned by Bongo. Many
suspected that the delivery was a sign that Bongo was
financially backing Menezes.


3. (U) On election day, non-violent community protests,
particularly in rural areas of MeZochi province, blocked
voting at 26 polling stations. The Electoral Commission
rescheduled the voting in those locations for April 2. While
the stations accounted for over 9500 registered voters, their
votes are unlikely to shift the outcome by more than one or
two seats. The protests were only marginally related to the
election process; activists in most of the involved
communities were demanding water, electricity, and better
roads -- one village hung up a banner "no road, no votes" --
and blocked access to the polling stations with trees, old
cars, and burning tires as a means of dramatizing their
concerns. The protesters were non-violent, non-threatening,
and talked freely with electoral observers and security
forces; the latter took no action to remove the barricades or
arrest demonstrators. One community (a village involved in
labor difficulties with the Pestana Group, a Portuguese
resort company) allowed the electoral workers to set up a
polling station but then boycotted the election completely as
a means of publicizing their grievances.


4. (U) In a letter delivered to the president of the STP
Electoral Commission, international observers, including a
team from the US Embassy in Libreville, noted minor technical
flaws, such as late openings, inconsistent procedures, or a
lack of sufficient ink at some polling stations. There was
no evidence or accusations of voter intimidation or threats
by the government or security forces, and in most locations
the voting occurred peacefully, and the flaws observed were
neither intentional nor influential on the results. The
observers concluded that "the elections were generally
conducted in a manner that met international norms" and that
STP voters were free to express their political choices at
the ballot box.


5. (C) However, observers suspected, but could not
definitively prove, that there was some vote buying on
election day -- or at least the expectation on the part of
some voters that they would be paid for their votes. Voters
milling around some polling stations told observers they were
waiting for someone to give them money for a vote; some even
approached observers with offers to sell their vote. Many of
these individuals, frustrated in their intent to get paid,
finally gave up and swelled the waiting lines late in the
day, ending up voting by candlelight.


6. (U) As predicted (reftel),the MDFM, MLSTP and ADI split
the vote, with President de Menezes' MDFM the biggest winner
with twenty-two seats. The MLSTP won twenty, ADI twelve, and
Novo Rumo one seat. Twenty-eight seats are needed for a
majority in Sao Tome's fifty-five seat National Assembly.
The strong showing by ADI allows it to hold out for the best
deal in forming a coalition government in partnership with
one of the larger parties.


7. (U) We will provide further analysis once the votes of
Sunday April 2 are in and the final election results tallied.
WALKLEY