SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION PRIMER

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIBREVILLE 000180

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
KINSHASA PASS BRAZZAVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV TP
SUBJECT: SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION PRIMER

Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER GLENN FEDZER
FOR REASON 1.4 (B)


1. (C) Summary: Sao Tome will hold legislative elections
March 26. Ten political parties and coalitions will compete
for all 55 seats in the National Assembly. Compared to other
central African countries where the President dominates
governance, the Assembly is the key institution in Sao Tome,
with real control over law and budget. Today no one party
holds sufficient seats to appoint a government, and despite
significant campaign spending and accusations of vote buying,
the outcome is likely to be continued governance by
coalition. Most observers believe the election will be free
and fair (although campaign tactics may not),and the results
peacefully accepted by the population. End Summary.

A legislative election in Africa that matters
--------------

2. (U) The campaign for control of Sao Tome's Assembly
kicked off March 11, with voting scheduled for March 26. Ten
parties are competing for 55 seats in six districts on Sao
Tome island and one encompassing Principe. Preliminary
results should be available the night of voting, with
official results published two weeks later.


3. (SBU) Compared to other central African legislatures,
the democratically-elected National Assembly in Sao Tome
plays an unusually strong role in the country's political
life. Unlike in neighboring countries with a strong
Presidency, the Assembly (and the government appointed by its
majority) plays the dominant role in adopting legislation and
budgets. Since currently no party holds a majority, (see
para 5 below),forging consensus in the Assembly is
difficult, sometimes interferes with legislation and has
destabilized governments. The resulting stalemate is an
ongoing source of frustration for the general population, as
are the sparks that that fly almost daily from friction
between the assembly and the Presidency. Sao Tome has had
three prime ministers in the last two years, all drawn from
the MLSTP (which has formed alliances with other parties in
the Assembly).


4. (SBU) Sao Tomeans are reluctant to predict which party
will come out on top March 26, and many expect that heavy
spending by the MLSTP, MDFM, and ADI will cancel each other
out and produce an outcome not much different from the status
quo. Despite high stakes and heavy spending, nearly
everyone in Sao Tomean believes the population will
peacefully accept the outcome, although some agitators may
spark small non-violent demonstrations.


A Cast of Characters
--------------

5. (C) Sao Tome has a mixed Presidential/Parliamentary
system. The President currently appoints the Foreign and
Defense Ministers, but he will lose this authority after the
Presidential election in July. Ministers need not be sitting
members of the Assembly, but the government formed must have
the approval of an Assembly majority. The ten parties or
coalitions running on March 26 are:

--MDFM/PCD coalition. The MDFM is the party of President
Fradique Menezes and holds 23 seats in the current assembly.
Observers and opponents allege the MDFM receives financial
support from Nigeria, Libya, Equatorial Guinea, and Taiwan.
The MDFM president is Tome Vera Cruz, and PCD and coalition
President is Leonel Mario d'Alva. Former party stalwart and
National Assembly Vice President Carlos Neves has split with
Menezes and is leaving the MDFM to run with the UDD (see
below).

--MLSTP/PSD Party (Note: PSD, "Social Democratic Party," was
added to the "Movement for the Liberation of Sao Tome and
Principe" after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The MLSTP/PSD
is not a "coalition" like the MDFM and PCD). The party of
Prime Minister Maria do Carmo Trovoada Silveira, it holds 24
seats and controls parliament in alliance with the ADI. The
MLSTP allegedly gets money from China and Angola. Party
President is Poser de Costa, and the Vice President is
Dionisio Diaz. It is widely believed an outright MLSTP win
would result in Sao Tome shifting diplomatic recognition back
to the PRC from Taiwan.

--ADI. Currently with five seats in the National Assembly,
the ADI and party President Patrice Trovoada are said to be
as flush with campaign funds as the MDFM and MLSTP. Many
observers, confident they know sources of funding for the
MLSTP or the MDFM, were quick to note that "they had no idea"
where ADI was getting money. One MLSTP supporter, when
pressed, opined that private Nigerian and American oil
executives were the likely culprits. ADI suffered some
defections in a power struggle between Trovoada and founding
members of the party; many key grass-roots organizers now
support the UDD.

--UE-KEDADJI Coalition. Representing four parties (the PPP,
CODO, PRD, and UNDP),UE-KEDADJI currently holds three seats
and will run with an addition party, the PRS, in the upcoming
election. Francisco Silva (PPP) runs the coalition
delegation in the Assembly. Other party leaders include
Manuel Neves Silva (CODO),Armindo Graca (PRD),Paixao Lima
(UNDP),and Hamilton Vaz (PRS). The coalition has limited
financial means, but may squeak out a few seats.

--UDD. A new party with some old names, including Party Vice
President Gabriel Costa (a former Prime Minister),and
current National Assembly Vice President Carlos Neves. Party
President Manuel Diego and Costa both complain that they have
no funds to run a campaign, but other observers feel the
party may gain a few seats behind the political experience of
its leaders and help from some skilled campaigners who
defected from the ADI.

--Novo Rumo. The "New Path" is led by Joao Gomes, whose
populist rhetoric has struck a chord with voters. A
long-shot to win more than a few seats, he appears to be one
of the more respected politicians in the campaign.

--FDC. The party of ex-"Buffalo" Arlecio Costa. The
Buffaloes are apartheid-era South African mercenaries, some
of whom were implicated in the 2003 coup attempt. At last
count 14 ex-Buffalo live in Sao Tome. FDC is unlikely to win
a seat.

--PTS. Party President Anicleto Rolin. Unlikely to win a
seat.

--GE. Party President Levy Nazare formed the "Generation of
Hope" around technocrats and government officials in their
twenties and thirties, who want to end the mismanagement of
their parents' generation. Nazare complained that big
parties will bury the smaller parties with externally-donated
funds, and considered dropping out of the election when
government campaign funds were not provided (as occurred in
some earlier elections). Nazare does not expect to win much
support beyond the urban middle class, but chose to remain in
the election to take advantage of broadcast time provided to
all parties on state run television and radio to get his
message across.

--PSL. Party President Augustino Rita. Unlikely to win a
seat.

A seat is cheaper in Caue...if you can get there
-------------- ---

6. (C) All 55 seats in the National Assembly are open. The
seats are allocated to six different districts in Sao Tome,
and a seventh in Principe Island, although the parties are
not obliged to run in each district. Actual residence in a
district is not a prerequisite for candidacy, a cause of some
friction with voters as most candidates on party lists are
middle and upper-class elites from the capital district of
Agua Grande. Parties win seats based on getting a percentage
in each district, making votes in districts like Caue (642
votes needed for a seat) more valuable than Agua Grande (2464
votes per seat). Parties may form coalitions and add their
vote totals together (even after the election) to claim
seats. (Comment: Unfortunately for party activists
interested in buying votes, roads to Caue are in an
exceptionally poor state of repair. End comment.) A total
of 79,842 voters are registered in Sao Tome and Principe:

District Seats Registered Voters

Agua Grande 13 32,025

Me Zochi 13 20,550
Canta Galo 7 7629

Caue 5 3206

Lemba 6 5780

Lobata 6 7305

Principe 6 3347


Real Money Today For Oil Money Tomorrow
--------------

7. (C) Campaign spending is reportedly lavish, and
accusations of vote buying are routine. Many Sao Tomeans
perceive the stakes are higher for this election, believing
the next Assembly will control Sao Tome as oil revenue begins
to arrive in the islands. Expectations of an oil windfall
are premature, but politicians are reportedly spending far
more than in previous elections regardless. Banker and
former Minister of Finance Acacio Bonfim told the Embassy
there is an unusually high demand for Dobras (the local
currency),and believes that campaign spending and vote
buying are the cause. His firm (the Bank of Sao Tome and
Principe) has watched politicians empty their local currency
accounts in preparation for the election, and he fears the
additional spending and supposed influx of hard currencies
will temporarily strengthen the Dobra and even create a short
term spike in consumer prices.

Dispute highlights Assembly-Presidency Conflict
-------------- --

8. (C) The National Electoral Commission (CEN) administers
the vote and all 232 polling stations, and is at the center
of the most recent dispute between the Assembly and the
President. President Menezes recently formed an independent
audit committee to examine the CEN's data base in a dispute
over 9000 "undocumented" voters, a move even neutral
observers condemned as unconstitutional. An MDFM party
member said Menezes' intention was good, but the execution,
terrible. National Assembly Vice President Carlos Neves
attacked Menezes publicly for the move. He told the Embassy
that if the CEN granted the committee access it would create
chaos, adding that these problems should be addressed by the
"right institutions," i.e., the Assembly, and not the
President. Neves adds that most of the 9000 undocumented
voters were legally registered in 1996, as the law allows two
witnesses to stand in for documentation such as a birth
certificate. CEN President Jose Carlos Barrios agrees with
Neves, saying he will give the President's committee the
output from his data base, but not let them anywhere near his
computers.

A system that works..sort of
--------------

9. (C) COMMENT: The constant infighting, bickering, and
political logjams that mark Sao Tome political institutions
obscure the fact (or perhaps prove the point) that Sao Tome
is something rare in this part of Africa: a functioning
democracy. Despite possible vote buying, voters who go to
the polls are free to pick any party on the ballot, a point
that even constitutes the campaign strategy for some smaller
parties (take their money and vote for us...). The MLSTP and
MDFM most likely will split most of the vote, with ADI, UDD,
UE-KEDADJI, and perhaps Novo Rumo picking up a few seats.

SIPDIS
Unless a party picks up a majority, an alliance in the
Assembly will again be required, and the conflict between the
Assembly and the President will continue. If the MLSTP wins,
President Menezes may decide not to run for reelection to
avoid the frustration of fighting the Assembly for the
majority of his second term. Regardless, most observers
confidently predict that the ballot on the 26th will be free
and fair, and the population will peacefully accept the
results on the 27th.
WALKLEY