CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: LISTS OUT; GOVERNMENT SEEKS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 000985

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON SOCI PHUM EAID BL
SUBJECT: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: LISTS OUT; GOVERNMENT SEEKS
DONOR SUPPORT



1. (SBU) Summary: The list of candidates for the Constituent
Assembly, publicly released on April 4, suggests an
opposition increasingly fragmented and in disarray. While
this should boost the MAS's hope to dominate the assembly,
the ruling party has problems of its own. These stem from
social sector groups that feel betrayed for having been left
off of the MAS's lists, and that may retaliate with street
protests or even by taking their votes elsewhere. In an
April 6 meeting with donors, VP Alvaro Garcia Linera said the
Constituent Assembly was the government's highest priority --
designed solely to strengthen and expand Bolivia's democracy
-- but acknowledged that the process would depend on
international funding. End Summary.

Lists Out: Fragmentation and Frustration
--------------
2 (SBU) The list of candidates seeking election as
representatives to the Constituent Assembly was publicly
released on April 4. A cursory review of the more than 2,000
names vying for the 255 available assembly slots suggests
increasing atomization and disarray among the so-called
opposition. While we had heard that quiet planning was
underway to coordinate the efforts of disparate groups --
Podemos, UN, MNR, MIR, ADN, and a number of citizens
organizations -- so as to avoid a further fragmentation of
non-MAS support, this effort appears to have come to naught.
In many constituencies one MAS or MAS-leaning candidate is
lined up against numerous "opposition" candidates. Moreover,
several opposition groups, such as Podemos and MNR, appear to
have split into more than one piece. Observers believe this
failure to join forces will significantly strengthen the
MAS's already strong hand.


3. (SBU) Notwithstanding its numerous advantages, including
possession of the executive bully pulpit, access to
government funds and the Venezuela-run national campaign to
provide voting documents to rural Bolivians (most of whom
will presumably be MAS voters),the ruling party has problems
of its own. These stem from the absence of representatives
from key indigenous and social sector organizations on the
MAS's electoral lists. For example, the executive secretary
of the regional Labor Central of El Alto (COR),Edgar Patana,
found his name nowhere on the list, contrary to promises made
to him by the MAS. A number of these groups have accused the
MAS of behaving like a traditional political party in using
the people as a "stepladder" and then leaving them behind.
Over the April 8-9 weekend, many met to discuss possible
retaliation, which reportedly could include initiating street
protests or even taking their support to the MAS's rivals.

Dependent on Donor Support
--------------

4. (SBU) In an April 6 meeting with representatives of the
international donor community, including the UNDP and a range
of European Embassy and aid missions, Vice President Alvaro
Garcia Linera emphasized that the Constituent Assembly was
the government's highest priority. He said it would be
designed solely to strengthen and expand Bolivia's democracy
-- urging those present to bring to his attention any
evidence of anti-democratic abuses -- and underscored the
important "symbolic and ritual" function of allowing
Bolivians from all sectors to participate and feel ownership
in the result. He also noted that the end result would be a
constitution that was only 20-30% changed from the current
one. (Comment: Garcia has suggested to us privately that
only 10% of the current Constitution would be altered.
President Morales, in a subsequent gathering of core
supporters in Cochabamba, claimed it would be more like 80%,
and entail "re-founding" Bolivia. Whatever the number and
real intention, Garcia Linera was playing his appointed role
- that of soothing the concerns of the international
community regarding the government's autocratic proclivities
- with predictable polish and eloquence. End Comment.)


5. (SBU) Garcia said the Government's efforts to support the
assembly, which include setting up a national Constituent
Assembly and Autonomy Referendum office in Santa Cruz, would
depend entirely on donor support. (In a similar meeting with
donors a month earlier, Garcia Linera said the government
would carry out its program with or without international
support.) According to the government's draft proposal to

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donors, this three-phased effort will cost just over USD 10
million. The government has reportedly already received
commitments of USD 1 million from the UNDP, the World Bank
and Japan for Phase 1. Several donor representatives
questioned why the GOB was depending entirely on
international support for a process allegedly so important to
Bolivia itself.
GREENLEE