MAS ONLY PARTY READY FOR CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 000733

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: MAS ONLY PARTY READY FOR CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY


Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: President Morales' Movement Toward Socialism
(MAS) party is mobilizing its formidable machinery for the
Constituent Assembly (CA) and is forming new alliances with
various social and political groups. The MAS is allegedly
"buying" votes via the Venezuelan-backed program to issue
identification documents to previously disenfranchised voters
and is attempting to alter the CA enabling legislation to
bolster its position and weaken that of the political
opposition. While the CA enabling law permits new political
parties, citizens' groups and indigenous organizations to
submit candidates, the April 3 deadline for meeting the
National Electoral Court's registration requirements presents
a logistical obstacle to widespread participation.
Meanwhile, the opposition, apparently still reeling from its
defeat in the December elections, is struggling to provide a
meaningful counterweight to the MAS, with little hope for
success. End summary.


2. (C) President Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS)
party, a well-organized (and well-financed) machine in its
own right, is gearing up for the Constituent Assembly (CA)
and is forming alliances with various social and political
groups to extend its reach. The MAS has already won
endorsements from prominent social and indigenous
organizations such as the Federation of Miners Cooperatives
(FENCOMIN),the Movement without Fear (MSM),the Labor Union
of Rural Bolivian Workers (CSUTCB),and the Regional Workers
Union (COR) of La Paz. The MAS is encouraging these and
other small political parties/citizens groups to propose
their own slate of candidates (and therefore appear
"independent"),the intended result being MAS control of
both the majority and minority representatives for each
electoral district.


3. (C) With its Venezuelan-financed program to issue
identification documents to previously disenfranchised
voters, the MAS is reportedly "buying" support for its CA
candidates. Several Embassy interlocutors tell us that the
carnets, provided free of charge, come with strings attached
(in effect, the citizen must vote for the MAS). One member
of Congress believes that, based on the last census (reputed
to underrepresent Bolivia's population) and the numbers of
carnets the GOB plans to distribute, government
identification cards will be "issued" to around 700,000
persons who don't exist. The MAS is also leading an effort
to modify the CA's enabling legislation to eliminate
government subsidies of political parties during the CA
campaign. The MAS plans to publicly decline such funds as an
austerity measure, and to criticize its opponents for not
following suit. A deputy with the National Unity (UN) party
told us that the MAS won't succeed in changing the law, but
will drag the opposition through the mud in an attempt to
gain votes. The MAS is also attempting to postpone the
deadline for voter registration for the CA to allow the
citizens receiving carnets (who are presumably more likely to
support the MAS) to participate in the election.


4. (C) While the CA enabling legislation permits new
political parties, citizens' groups and indigenous
organizations to submit candidates, the April 3 deadline for
meeting the National Electoral Court's registration
requirements presents a logistical obstacle to widespread
participation. Many indigenous and women's groups are
frantically searching for alliances with existing political
parties or citizens groups, as they couldn't obtain the
signatures required to form a new legal entity by April 3.
Only two organizations, the Bolivian Social Democrats (BSD)
and Potosi Mayor Rene Joaquino's Social Alliance (AS),began
the registration process in a timely manner; one other group,
the Patriotic Social Union Movement (Muspa),has completed
the process.


5. (C) In the absence of new political organizations,
opposition to the MAS in the CA will likely be the same major
parties that ran in the December election, many of which are

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still reeling from their defeat. The UN and Podemos are only
beginning to look for CA candidates; they are struggling with
how to provide a meaningful counterweight to the MAS. The UN
is attempting to work out an under-the-table deal with
Podemos and the MNR to run only one opposition slate of
candidates in each district. Such a deal has been met with
interest, but real political leadership is lacking to push it
forward. Both Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga and Samuel Doria Medina
are keeping a low political profile. Quiroga is challenged
by the split of the National Democratic Action party (ADN),
his former party, from the Podemos coalition. Many doubt
that Podemos or the UN will nominate a full slate of national
candidates for the CA due to lack of organization and
funding. Several parties which did not participate in the
December elections (like the newly-formed Social Alliance in
Potosi or Sucre's Free Bolivia Movement (MBL) may be able to
sway some voters in a few departments, but appear to have
limited national capacity.


6. (C) Comment: Morales' stated goal is for the MAS to take
the CA by an overwhelming majority, by electing as many as 70
percent of the CA delegates. Clearly, the MAS is the only
party with a well-defined strategy for the CA and the funding
to match. If the opposition doesn't unite quickly and
convince its financiers (like Doria Medina) to open up their
coffers, they'll weaken their opportunity to have a sizable
role in the CA, thus giving the MAS control to re-write
Bolivia's constitution. End comment.
GREENLEE