Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LAPAZ626
2006-03-08 20:57:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:  

MNR CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY

Tags:  ECON PGOV PREL PTER PARM PINR BL 
pdf how-to read a cable
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P 082057Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
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INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5660
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RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 000626 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL PTER PARM PINR BL
SUBJECT: MNR CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY


Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 000626

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL PTER PARM PINR BL
SUBJECT: MNR CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY


Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a meeting with Embassy officials on March
8, MNR Senator Miguel Majluf and MNR deputy Michiaki Nagatani
expressed confidence about their party's prospects for the
Constituent Assembly (CA) and satisfaction with the
opposition's efforts to limit MAS power in the CA. They said
we should expect the recent hiccups in the bilateral
relationship to continue since President Morales is back on
(or never left) the campaign trail for the July 2 election of
CA representatives. Nagatani noted an increasing distance
between Morales and Vice-President Garcia Linera, and
attributed the success of the CA enabling law to the more
"rational" Garcia Linera. Both noted the high Cuban and the
more discreet Venezuelan profiles in Bolivia, hinting that
the opposition would bring this "interference" to light. The
purpose of the meeting was to answer Majluf's and Nagatani's
questions about the Embassy cutting its support of a GOB
anti-terrorism unit; after hearing the U.S. rationale, both
said it is "understandable" and promised to educate their
colleagues in Congress. After a slow start, it seems the
political opposition may be shaping up, although limited
financial resources may limit its potential. End summary.


2. (C) In a meeting with Embassy officials on March 8, MNR
Senator Miguel Majluf and MNR deputy and former presidential
candidate Michiaki Nagatani expressed confidence about their
party's prospects for the CA and satisfaction with the
opposition's efforts to limit MAS control over same. Even
with limited resources, they believe the MNR can gain 10
percent of the total CA representatives. They opined that
the MAS, with unlimited financial resources, could win
approximately 46 percent (they estimate that the MAS controls
41 out of 70 electoral districts in Bolivia.) Somewhat
exaggerating the MNR's role in moderating the CA legislation,

Majluf stated that the MNR gained valuable ground, including
the five representatives for each department in the CA,
because he threatened to walk out of the Senate and cause the
MAS to lose its quorum, Majluf said the GOB also knew it had
to defer to the "media luna" (Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni and
Pando) to keep social peace. According to Majluf, the MNR
also convinced Podemos, who wanted to boycott Congress, to
attend the critical vote on the CA law because, according to
a recent poll, 84 percent of Bolivians support the CA and
therefore, the opposition could not appear to oppose it.


3. (C) Majluf and Nagatani advised us to expect the recent
hiccups in the bilateral relationship to continue since
Morales is back on the campaign trail for the July 2 election
of CA representatives. They said that Morales is likely to
politicize minor issues (like the cancellation of visas) in
an effort to gain support from his radical base and votes for
MAS CA candidates.


4. (C) Nagatani noted an increasing distance between
President Morales and Vice-President Garcia Linera, and
attributed the success of the CA enabling law to the more
"rational" Garcia Linera. Majluf described Morales as having
lots of "complexes," and Garcia Linera as easier to work with
because of his analytical and open nature. Both agreed that
Garcia Linera is managing the CA process for the GOB.


5. (C) Both interlocutors noted the high Cuban and the more
discreet Venezuelan profiles in Bolivia, hinting that the
opposition would bring this "interference" to light.
Nagatani said there are approximately 600 Cuban doctors
working overtly in Bolivia, and that in Santa Cruz, the
Cubans have rented all available luxury housing. Nagatani
also said Cuba is sending planes full of low-income Bolivians
to Cuba for "CA training," many without passports. Nagatani
has asked the executive branch to identify Cubans/
Venezuelans in country, but has not received any response.
In response to ECOPOL counselor's question about why
Bolivians are not commenting on Venezuelan influence in the
various government ministries, Majluf said the people haven't
objected because the Venezuelans have kept such a low
profile. He thinks, however, that the Venezuelans will soon

LA PAZ 00000626 002 OF 002


begin to operate more openly, and as they do, opposition to
their presence will increase.


6. (C) The purpose of the meeting was to answer questions
posed by Majluf in his capacity as president of the defense
committee in the Senate and by Nagatani, president of the
Chamber of Deputies' international relations committee,
regarding the Embassy discontinuing support of a GOB
anti-terrorism unit. Instead of this topic dominating the
meeting, both Majluf and Nagatani quickly accepted the U.S.
rationale for the cut, calling it "understandable" in the
context of inter-governmental cooperation (as opposed to
assistance). Both appreciated the information and promised
to educate their colleagues in Congress, but noted that all
matters in the new Congress are complicated by the
inexperience of the vast majority of members and the
"sindicalist" posture of the new MAS deputies who are
attempting to define and defend their "territory" in the
absence of party leadership.


7. (C) Comment: After a slow start, it seems the political
opposition may be shaping up. Opposition parties and civic
organizations (particularly from the media luna) have been
credited with preventing the CA law from facilitating the
MAS's path to a more authoritarian regime. Given the number
of opposition parties interested in presenting candidates for
the CA (including the National Unity (UN),MNR, Podemos, MIR,
Free Bolivia Movement (MBL) and Rene Joaquino's new Social
Alliance) the opposition has a chance for a real presence in
the Assembly. However, limited financial resources
(especially on the part of the MNR and Podemos) may prove a
tangible limit to the opposition's potential. End comment.

GREENLEE