Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LAPAZ522
2006-03-01 20:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:  

GROWING TENSION OVER CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY

Tags:  ECON PGOV PREL BL 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4174
PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHLP #0522/01 0602014
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 012014Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8241
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5633
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 2901
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6772
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 3991
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1339
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 1242
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 3591
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 3974
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 8493
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 000522 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: GROWING TENSION OVER CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY


Classified By: Charge D'Affairs David M. Robinson for reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 000522

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: GROWING TENSION OVER CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY


Classified By: Charge D'Affairs David M. Robinson for reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).


1. (C) Summary: The first days of March are shaping up to be
a showdown over the Constituent Assembly (CA),as Congress
begins debate on the conflict-ridden draft proposal forwarded
by the congressional committee to the floor. If Congress
doesn't reach consensus by March 4, the National Electoral
Court may have trouble holding the election of CA
representatives on July 2 as proposed by the GOB. Various
departmental prefects and civic committees continue to
elaborate proposals for the CA and raise concerns about the
GOB's efforts to rush forward with enabling legislation. How
the congressional debate develops this week will tell us much
about the cohesiveness of the MAS block of deputies in
Congress, the ability of opposition parties to work together,
and the willingness of the GOB to summon social pressure to
influence the legislative process. End summary.


2. (C) The first days of March are shaping up to be a
showdown over the Constituent Assembly (CA). The
congressional committee charged with reaching consensus on
enabling legislation for the CA sent an incomplete bill to
the floor of Congress for debate, having failed to hammer out
differences on key issues. The committee was supposed to
send a proposal to the floor by February 24, but missed the
deadline. Within the committee, disagreement persisted
regarding four articles, mostly pertaining to the number of
constituent assembly representatives and how to select them.
Members of the committee also told us that they could not
decide whether to conduct a legally binding referendum on
autonomy on same date CA representatives are elected.


3. (C) If Congress doesn't reach consensus on the CA
legislation by March 4, the National Electoral Court (CNE)
may have trouble keeping the election of CA representatives
on track for July 2, the date proposed by the GOB. The CNE
has said publicly that it requires 120 days to schedule the
election, which means the court needs to start preparations
on March 4. Privately, however, CNE officials have told us
that they need a minimum of 90 days, which means the debate
could continue through April 3 and still meet the GOB
timetable for the CA election.


4. (C) Various departmental prefects and civic committees
continue to elaborate proposals for the CA and raise concerns
about the GOB's efforts to rush forward with enabling
legislation. Leaders from Santa Cruz and Tarija have been
especially vocal, reminding GOB leaders of the need for a
binding referendum on the autonomy issue. The MAS is
opposed to a July 2 autonomy referendum which would have a
legally binding outcome on the CA, arguing that the CA should
have unlimited power to "refound Bolivia." Vice President
Alvaro Garcia Linera announced that President Evo Morales
could perhaps be more flexible on this issue. At the same
time, MAS representatives warn that if the Congress does not
take action by March 4, the socials sectors could be called
out to pressure a reluctant Congress to approve the GOB
proposal.


5. (C) Opposition political party leaders have worried that
the MAS would try to assemble a quorum this week, with many
opposition members of Congress in their home regions for
Carnaval celebrations, and force its proposal through
Congress. The Constitution provides that 2/3 of the members
present (once quorum is achieved) are required to pass the CA
legislation. Representatives from the Unidad Nacional (UN)
party told us that while the MAS deputies fall just short of
quorum, the MAS might be able to garner sufficient numbers to
reach quorum and push through the enabling legislation for
the CA.


6. (C) Comment: How the Congressional debate develops this
week will tell us much about the cohesiveness of the MAS
block of deputies in Congress, the ability of opposition
parties to work together, and the willingness of the GOB to
summon social pressure to influence the legislative process.

LA PAZ 00000522 002 OF 002


Moving the CA legislation forward too quickly without
developing a consensus among the departments could alienate
many and result in a political backlash that would hurt the
GOB. Many of the issues in question about the CA --
especially the method of selecting CA representatives --
break according to regional and not political party lines.
Nevertheless, we have no indication that MAS deputies will be
willing to break with the GOB to vote for their region's
interests. Opposition politicians continue to seek
postponement of the CA, thereby denying the MAS a quick
legislative victory and forestalling MAS efforts to further
consolidate political power. End comment.
ROBINSON