Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LAPAZ443
2006-02-21 17:56:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:  

CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: EYE ON THE PRIZE

Tags:  SOCI PGOV BL 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0014
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLP #0443/01 0521756
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 211756Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8146
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5618
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 2884
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6757
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 3979
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1327
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 1226
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 3579
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 8481
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
UNCLAS LA PAZ 000443 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR FOR WHA A/S SHANNON AND P/DAS SHAPIRO
NSC FOR DFISK
USINCSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SOCI PGOV BL
SUBJECT: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: EYE ON THE PRIZE

REF: LA PAZ 336

UNCLAS LA PAZ 000443

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR FOR WHA A/S SHANNON AND P/DAS SHAPIRO
NSC FOR DFISK
USINCSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SOCI PGOV BL
SUBJECT: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: EYE ON THE PRIZE

REF: LA PAZ 336


1. (SBU) Summary: The Constituent Assembly (CA) is shaping
up to be Bolivia's grand political prize and the Evo Morales
administration has devoted itself almost exclusively to
passing legislation assuring near total control of the
process to the MAS (the governing party),including with
threats of social pressure. Meanwhile, the opposition in
Congress and the regions has sought to generate alternative
projects and to prolong the debate -- to better the chances
for a balanced outcome. Whether the CA will simply revise
the existing constitution or else (more ambitiously)
"refound" the Bolivian state is a central question; the
answer will turn on who is in charge. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Long a large but undefined project looming on the
political horizon, with some claiming it alone could repair
Bolivia's fraying social consensus and others fearing it
would inevitably fracture fragile national unity, the
Constituent Assembly (CA) is now shaping up to be Bolivia's
grand political prize. Many observers see it as the crucial
second step in a two-step process that began with the
December 18 national elections. Some believe its importance
will dwarf that of the elections. In concrete terms,
controlling the CA could mean shaping Bolivia's political,
social and economic direction for the next generation.


3. (SBU) These potentially stratospheric stakes explain why
the government has devoted itself to passing its legislative
proposal for the CA as quickly as possible, to the near
exclusion of any other activity. Many observers have
commented that, apart from a few symbolic pronouncements
(such as the public austerity plan, not yet approved by
Congress),top government officials have done little else but
campaign for the Assembly. Moreover, the government's
legislative proposal - three representatives per
constituency, with candidates achieving more than 50%
sweeping all three seats (ref) - seems designed to ensure
that the MAS wins the two-thirds majority it will need to
control the process outright. On February 15, President
Morales again publicly threatened to lead protest marches
against the Congress should it fail to approve the
government's proposal. According to news reports, MAS
legislators (who now have the power to do such things) set
February 20 as the deadline to receive additional legislative
proposals, a clear attempt to accelerate the process or at
least to avoid prolonging it. To many observers, the
government is in a hurry because it wants to capitalize on
its momentum out of the elections and its near 75% popular
support in recent polls.


4. (SBU) Meanwhile, the opposition in Congress and the
regions has tried to slow the process down. Many observers
believe that the longer the initial debate, the more the
Bolivian people will become aware of the diverse alternatives
and of the dangers of a MAS monopoly of power, the more
likely the government's inflated popularity will drop, and
therefore the better the odds that a politically balanced CA
can emerge. Civic leaders from Tarija, Beni and Pando have
threatened that their departments will boycott the Assembly
if Congress fails to consider their proposals, which call for
representation primarily by region rather than by legislative
constituency. Other regional groups, including from Santa
Cruz, have given their congressional representatives
alternative proposals for Congress's consideration. Some
opposition legislators have told us that they might push
proposals that feature corporatist representation,
particularly for indigenous peoples, but largely for tactical
(rather than ideological) reasons -- to attract the support
of social sector and indigenous groups who oppose the
government's proposal because it does not include such
representation. We have heard that congress has received as
many as 12 legislative proposals so far.


5. (SBU) One central question relates to the scope and
limits of the CA; that is, whether it will be simply
"derivative," and seek to revise the existing constitution,
or else "originary," a much more ambitious effort to clean
the slate, restructure the Bolivian state and even "refound"
Bolivian society as a whole. The answer to this question
will turn on who ends up controlling the CA process, probably
the most crucial matter of all. Ricardo Paz, a vociferous
proponent of a CA ("as long as it's well done") told us
recently that the government's proposal is designed
exclusively to secure its hold on power, which, he mused, was
not supposed to be the point at all. Should that happen, the
government will be able to do just about whatever it pleases
-- at least in theory.
GREENLEE