SENATE MEETS IN DARK OF NIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LA PAZ 003245

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL PHUM BL
SUBJECT: SENATE MEETS IN DARK OF NIGHT

REF: LA PAZ 3204

Classified By: Ambassador Philip S. Goldberg for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Following a series of questionable but probably
legal maneuvers to attain a quorum, the Bolivian senate met
late in the night of November 28 and rapidly approved five
new laws, including the controversial land reform bill (INRA)
and a Bolivian-Venezuelan military agreement. Within hours
of the senate's action, the president signed the bills into
law just after midnight . While arguably legal, the GOB's
aggressive manipulation of senate procedures is a worrying
indication that it is not interested in working across party
lines. The aftermath of the president's midnight maneuver is
that the MAS has effectively gained control of the senate.
MAS contacts indicate that they are preparing to move forward
with an aggressive political agenda. While the national
opposition continues to flail rhetorically, it shows little
sign of posing a threat to current MAS hegemony, and
President Morales popularity has soared in the most recent
polling, probably reflecting the popular support for his
renegotiation of hydrocarbons contracts. End summary.

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A MEETING IN THE DARK OF NIGHT
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2. (C) While President Morales and Vice President Garcia
Linera were meeting publicly with the La Paz Civic Committee
on the night of November 28 to discuss starting a dialogue,
the senate was convened in a surprise session to pass the
controversial land reform law (INRA) and a stalled military
agreement with Venezuela. Despite weeks of intense MAS
pressure, both bills had been held up by opposition
resistance. This ended when the GOB was able to convince two
opposition party alternate senators, one from Podemos party
and one from UN, to break the opposition-led senate boycott
and thus create a quorum (reftel).


3. (C) The Bolivian senate is made up of twenty-seven
senators, three from each department. Each senator is
elected along with an alternate. Before November 28, the
Podemos party held thirteen seats, MAS twelve, and UN and MNR
one each. On November 28th, Beni Podemos Senator Hector
Mario Vargas attended the session, but left before the voting
started. While rumors and accusations of the opposition
being bought off by the MAS party abound, none have yet been
confirmed. Following Vargas' appearance at the senate on
November 28th, Podemos and MAS contacts confirm that Beni
Senator Hector Mario Vargas has abandoned Podemos and will
join the MAS, thus appearing to give the MAS the senate
majority.

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MAS TRIUMPHANT, LOOKING AHEAD
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4. (C) MAS party strategist and Santa Cruz Senator Guido
Guardia'a advisor Jose Arraya was jubilant when he spoke with
Emboff. "With Vargas we have the majority," he said, "now we
just need two more to take absolute control of the senate.
We are going to neutralize Cochabamba Podemos Senator Tito
Hoz de Villa (by bringing up corruption charges) and already
have a deal with his alternate senator. I'm working on
cutting deals with either the UN or MNR for their votes."
When asked about the constituent assembly, Arraya replied:

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"if we don't get the two-thirds in the final vote we'll just
go with a simple majority". This was followed by a string of
obscenities in which he expressed his desire to "go after"
the CAO (Eastern Agricultural Chamber),the CAINCO (Santa
Cruz Business Federation),and opponents in the eastern
departments.

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THE OPPOSITION FLAILS AND WAILS
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5. (C) Podemos alternate Senator Rene Zamora from Potosi
told Emboff that in recent days he had been approached by the
MAS to break ranks and attend the senate session. Zamora
said this was not the first time he had been approached by
the MAS, reporting that as in other instances, he replied
that he "is not for sale." The senator argued that the MAS'
approach on November 28th "demonstrates that the GOB is not
interested in building consensus or even having any dialogue
with the opposition." Zamora told Emboff he fears that now
that the MAS controls the senate it will pursue criminal
charges against four of Bolivia's ex-presidents (Rodriguez,
Mesa, Sanchez de Lozada, and Paz). With both houses under
MAS control Zamora claimed, the legislature could radicalize
considerably -- he held out the prospect of changes in coca
jurisprudence as an obvious area for MAS creativity. Zamora
was pessimistic about the situation in Sucre, "they have
railroaded the senate, next is the Constituent Assembly."


6. (C) Podemos' Chief of Staff for party leader Jorge
"Tuto" Quiroga, Gustavo Alliaga, told Emboff that Podemos had
heard rumors of pending changes in allegiance as early as
last week but simply "didn't want to believe it." Alliaga
claims that Pando alternate Senator Fermin Heredia Guzman
will be named Bolivian consul general in Sao Paulo as his
reward for joining the MAS. (Note: The new Brazilian
Ambassador told Ambassador Goldberg on November 30 that one
of the alternates, a long time resident of Brazil, was a
"shady character" who was almost certainly the recipient of
money or favors in return for his actions. End Note)
Alliaga said the mood at Podemos party headquarters is
somber. At this point "we are even resigned to losing in the
Constituent Assembly. Bolivia will end up with a one hundred
percent MAS constitution."

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.. BUT CAN IT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER?
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7. (C) In a meeting with Emboff, Senate Vice President Jose
Villavicencio (UN) said he felt like he had been "sucker
punched" when he found out his second had broken ranks. The
senator stated that while the MAS did not follow Senate
protocol in the way it convened the secret session, it was
not illegal. After a day of reflection, Villavicencio said
he was trying to look on the bright side of things, which was
that the GOB had taken off its mask and exposed its
undemocratic nature. President Morales' actions were helping
to unify the previously fractured opposition parties. The
senator commented that he met with UN party President Samuel
Medina on November 29 and that the two agreed there were
three choices at this juncture: submit, flee the country, or
fight for a democratic state. Villavicencio then announced
that "the UN party has chosen to fight. The battlefield will
be the constituent assembly."


8. (C) Villavicencio explained that measures the UN will
take will include expanding the UN hunger strike, supporting
the planned December 1 twenty-four hour strike in the eastern
departments, and continuing to boycott the senate. Waxing
dramatic, the senator went on to say, "we have to stop the

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domino effect of Venezuela, Cuba, and now Ecuador. The
department of Pando is willing to go to war to not let
Bolivia become communist. We do not want to separate,
rather, we are prepared to defend the whole of the country to
maintain a unified and democratic Bolivia. Don't let the
momentary tranquillity in La Paz fool you, outside of the
capital the people are restless."

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Perhaps no subject in the conservative,
agricultural Bolivian lowlands is so neuralgic as the
ownership of land, and until this turn of events, it appeared
that the opposition had the government stalemated in the
senate, which it controlled until November 28th. Opposition
leaders appear to have seriously miscalculated the depth of
the commitment of their team, and underestimated the
government's understanding of Bolivia's parliamentary rules
of order. (And just plain willingness to use all the tools
at its disposal to get the requisite number of senators to
switch parties.) The MAS is emboldened by this victory, and
by recent poll results that show its popularity surging with
the hydrocarbons renegotiation. With the finger pointing in
the opposition continuing, Podemos in particular appears to
have been dealt a body blow, although Podemos leader Tuto
Quiroga continues to hold on in his position for now. The
political struggle will now move to the constituent assembly,
and the fear and rage of the opposition is increasingly
palpable. Senate Vice President Jose Villavicencio asked
Emboff to pass on the following message: "we are ready to
defend ourselves." The question is whether the opposition
can put together a political alliance that can successfully
do just that. End Comment.
URS