MAS INSIDERS SPECULATE ABOUT MORALES' INTENTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 003178

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: MAS INSIDERS SPECULATE ABOUT MORALES' INTENTIONS

REF: LA PAZ 2130

Classified By: Ecopol Counselor Andrew Erickson for reason 1.4 (b).


1. (C) Summary: Two MAS insiders independently told poloff
November 22 that President Morales intends to close congress
and the courts in January 2007. Both said the GOB is gearing
up for the next presidential elections, which will likely be
set for early 2008. One said if Morales stumbles
politically, the MAS may move to crown Senate President
Santos Ramirez as its next leader. One insider, a MAS
congressional staffer, also told poloff about growing
discontent within the MAS party in Congress. The reports of
Morales' plans to close Congress and the courts may be
indicative of Morales' intentions or may be mere rumors, but
his ability to achieve such ends will depend greatly on the
cohesiveness of Bolivia's political opposition. End summary.

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NEXT STEP IN THE PLAYBOOK?
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2. (C) Two MAS insiders independently told poloff November 22
that President Morales intends to close congress and the
courts in January 2007. One is a reliable Embassy contact
and MAS congressional staffer; the other, a new contact, is a
MAS insider who participated in the mid-November MAS congress
in Cochabamba. Both said that Morales' agreement to raise
Constituent Assembly delegates' salaries was a step toward
closing congress. By raising salaries, they said, Morales
hopes to have purchased the unconditional loyalty of MAS
delegates, which he lacks in congress. The MAS staffer says
closing congress is consistent with Morales' plan to
restructure the GOB. Instead of merely closing the Senate
and adding a fourth branch of government (a nine-member
council which would supervise the attorney general,
comptroller general, the human rights ombudsman, and the
police and military) via a new constitution (reftel),the
staffer believed that Morales' end game is to reorganize the
GOB around only two branches of government-- the executive
branch and the new government council.


3. (C) Both contacts said the GOB is gearing up for the next
presidential elections, which will likely be set for early

2008. The Constituent Assembly is scheduled to end in August
2007 and many analysts expect Morales to resign from office
in favor of new elections (which presumably would allow for
re-election and a longer presidential term). The MAS staffer
said the Bolivian government is planning its biggest campaign
to date, likely to start mid-2007, and that the GOB is
working to immobilize the possible competition (septel).

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ONE BIG HAPPY FAMILY
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4. (C) The MAS staffer said that if Morales stumbles
politically, the MAS may move to crown Senate President
Santos Ramirez as its next leader, with MAS Constituent
Assembly delegate Roman Loaiza as his running mate. Loaiza,
who suffered a near-fatal fall in the Constituent Assembly on
September 1, recuperated in Santa Cruz and then received
additional medical treatment in Cuba. The staffer told
poloff that Morales has been heavily involved in Loaiza's
recovery, even personally visiting him in the hospital,
because Morales reportedly has an illegitimate child with
Loaiza's oldest daughter. (Note: Another of Loaiza's
daughters is married to hardline Education Minister Felix
Patzi. End note).


5. (C) The MAS staffer also told poloff of growing discontent
within the MAS party in Congress. He said that two weeks

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ago, MAS staffers drafted a letter to President Morales
suggesting several courses of action relating to Congress.
In response, Minister of the Presidency Juan de la Quintana
invited the staffers to a meeting at the presidential palace.
When they arrived, however, Quintana abruptly attacked them
for having drafted such a "bold" letter. Several days later,
the staffers learned that the president had ordered their pay
docked. The staffers wrote a second letter to President
Morales, essentially challenging the pay reduction. Quintana
called one of the staffers to say that they wouldn't be
docked a second time, but that he hoped never to hear from
them again.

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READING COCA LEAVES
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6. (C) The MAS staffer also provided insight into Morales'
decision-making process, saying that Morales frequently asks
five indigenous fortune tellers who he keeps on retainer to
read coca leaves to guide his decisions. The staffer said
Morales heavily relies on these fortune tellers, favoring
their mystical advice over the substance of the issue at
hand. For example, he said that when Morales has to make a
hiring decision, he refuses to read the candidate's
curriculum vitae, instead soliciting advice from the fortune
tellers regarding whether the person will support him.

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COMMENT: DUBIOUS INTENTIONS
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7. (C) Comment: La Paz is awash with rumors, but we report
the musings of these two contacts because of their privileged
placement within the MAS organization. The reports of
Morales' plans to close congress and the courts may be
indicative of Morales' intentions or may be mere rumors, but
his ability to achieve such ends will depend greatly on the
cohesiveness of Bolivia's political opposition.
Traditionally fragmented and disorganized, the opposition's
current strategy of holding up passage of and demanding
changes to the MAS land reform bill as a pressure tactic to
win a two-thirds vote for constitutional changes may have
some impact. The more difficulty Morales has in getting
congress to pass his agenda, however, the more Morales may
consider using anti-democratic and unconstitutional measures,
such as closing the other branches of government, to achieve
his desired ends. End comment.
GOLDBERG