VENEZUELAN AMBASSADOR PLEDGES DEFENSE OF GOB; GOV

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 002726

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016
TAGS: SNAR PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN AMBASSADOR PLEDGES DEFENSE OF GOB; GOV
FRUSTRATED WITH MORALES?

REF: A. LA PAZ 2637


B. LA PAZ 2647

Classified By: Ambassador Philip S. Goldberg for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

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Summary
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1. (C) Summary: President Morales convoked cocaleros of the
Chapare October 7 to publicly demonstrate against the U.S.'s
hedged certification of Bolivia on counternarcotics and to
defend his coca policies. Standing at President Morales'
side, Venezuelan Ambassador Julio Montes pledged to defend
Bolivia's revolution with Venezuelan "blood and lives"
against all who would "threaten" the "beautiful Bolivian
revolution." Morales' own discourse was more moderate than
usual, although his intent was apparently to shore up
cocalero support by throwing an anti-American bash following
his decision to go after the Carrasco National Park
cocaleros. While domestic response to the outspoken
Venezuelan remarks has been muted, an opposition senator will
introduce a bill asking the foreign ministry to declare the
Venezuelan "persona non grata" for his interference in
Bolivia's internal affairs. While this bill will likely find
little traction, the Venezuelan ambassador's comments may
well reflect Venezuelan exasperation with Morales' failure to
keep his political footing during recent crises with
cocaleros, miners, and now the public transport unions. As
one opposition-oriented analyst told us October 10:
"President Morales came in promising the people he would be
Nelson Mandela and cure us of our racist past; all that is
over now. Now he is just trying to survive." While this
comment reflects opposition optimism, it illustrates a sense
in Bolivia among experienced observers that the political
dynamic is shifting away from President Morales and his MAS
party. End summary.

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Venezuelan Blood for GOB --
Bolivian Coca for Venezuela
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2. (SBU) President Morales convoked cocaleros of the Chapare
October 7 for an anti-American rally in Shinahota to publicly
reject the U.S. decision to certify Bolivia on
counternarcotics with a six month review and to defend the
"cato" of coca (septel). Morales said "they (the Americans)
can't interfere in the internal affairs of Bolivia." He said
"again the U.S. government sets conditions... our fight now
is together-- government and cocaleros--to tell (the United
States) there won't be zero coca in the six federations of
the tropico of Cochabamba, cato of coca or death. Together
we're going to defend, organized, unified, against those
interests they want to impose."


3. (SBU) Morales invited the Venezuelan ambassador to
Bolivia, Julio Montes, to accompany him, and shared the
lectern with the other speakers who also engaged in
anti-American rhetoric and violent discourse. The Venezuelan
ambassador, who was featured prominently, declared "if for
some reason the beautiful Bolivian revolution were
threatened, and Bolivians asked for our blood and our lives,
we will be there." Morales also announced that Venezuela
will invest USD 500,000 to open a plant in the Chapare to
industrialize coca, and Montes promised that Venezuelan will
be a prime market for industrialized coca.

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GOV Defending Bolivia
Against what Enemies?
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4. (C) On October 9, the press reported that opposition
Podemos Senator Oscar Ortiz will introduce a bill in the

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senate asking the foreign ministry to declare the Venezuelan
ambassador "persona non grata" for his interference in
internal Bolivian affairs. Ortiz told poloff October 10 that
Podemos believes Montes' statements constitute unwanted
interference in an internal Bolivian conflict, as do his
previous statements urging the constituent assembly to
declare itself "plenipotentiary." Ortiz said the senate
resolution, which must be passed by simple majority, would
urge the ministry of foreign affairs to declare Montes
persona non grata. While as of this writing it is unclear
how much traction this resolution will gain, the opposition
believes that it is important to keep Venezuelan meddling in
the public eye. (NOTE: We are reporting septel on
Venezuelan-Bolivian military cooperation. END NOTE).


5. (C) More specifically, Senator Ortiz told us October 10
that he believes the Venezuelan ambassador's comments were
aimed squarely at the opposition, and not against any
potential non-Bolivian "enemies of the revolution." We asked
Ortiz what the opposition's strategy was in light of recent
Morales' missteps with the miners, confrontations with
competing cocaleros, and troubles with transportation unions.
(A national transport strike is threatened for later this
week, in addition to the strike which already paralyzed La
Paz on October 9th.) While Ortiz lamented that opposition
weakness has left it unable to put a national leader up
against the MAS, he expressed satisfaction that President
Morales is generating enough opposition due to his own
confrontational and exclusivist style that the opposition can
afford to remain passive for the time being.

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Comment: Venezuelans Fear
Client May be Crumbling?
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6. (C) Comment: Evo Morales has had a tough news week, but
his popularity remains high with his base and he knows how to
strike a chord with the elements that comprise it, as he
demonstrated at the anti-American rally for his Chapare
cocalero supporters over the weekend. That being said,
certain union and cooperativist workers previously in
Morales' corner are now turning against him and his
government. Venezuelan diplomatic hamfistedness is of course
nothing new in this hemisphere or elsewhere. Nonetheless,
the Venezuelan ambassador's comments may well reflect
Venezuelan exasperation with Morales' failure to keep his
political footing in the light of recent crises with
cocaleros, miners, and now the transport unions. As one
opposition-oriented analyst told us October 10; "President
Morales came in promising the people he would be Nelson
Mandela and cure us of our racist past; all that is over now.
Now he is just trying to survive." The Venezuelan
ambassador's public endorsement of the Morales'
administration underscores just how closely this GOB is
associated with the GOV, and arguably just how worried the
Venezuelans are that the situation is slipping out of
President Morales' control. There is a sense in Bolivia
among experienced political observers that the political
dynamic is shifting away from President Morales and his MAS
party. End comment.
GOLDBERG