Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LAPAZ2683
2006-10-04 19:02:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:  

CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: TRUE MAS INTENTIONS?

Tags:  ECON PGOV PREL BL 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 002683 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: TRUE MAS INTENTIONS?

REF: LA PAZ 2636

Classified By: Amb. Philip S. Goldberg for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

---------
SUMMARY
---------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 002683

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: TRUE MAS INTENTIONS?

REF: LA PAZ 2636

Classified By: Amb. Philip S. Goldberg for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Poloff met with approximately twenty Constituent
Assembly representatives in Sucre September 28-29 and
observed the Assembly's chaotic operations. Following the
MAS' approval of Article 1 of the rules of order by simple
majority (reftel),the principal debate among opposition
delegates was whether they could appeal the MAS' actions
given the Assembly's now "original" and plenipotentiary
nature. The next major question to be decided is whether
approval of the constitution will require a two-thirds vote
(as mentioned in the enabling legislation) or whether the MAS
will unilaterally change procedure to allow for a simple
majority-- and complete MAS dominance. While the Assembly
will not likely debate this mechanism this week, opposition
representatives worry that the MAS will impose its will in
the end. If the MAS continues to approve the rules of debate
by simple majority, there will be little doubt about the MAS'
true intentions, and even less room for the opposition to
influence the new constitution. End summary.

--------------
CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY CHAOS
--------------


2. (C) Poloff met with approximately twenty Constituent
Assembly representatives in Sucre September 28-29 and
observed the Assembly's chaotic operations at close hand. To
open the September 28 session, MAS President Silvia Lazarte
called an hour-long roll call vote instead of using the
electronic voting system. During the chaos that ensued,
dozens of Assembly delegates competed for the floor while
Lazarte attempted to drown them out. Throughout the session,
MAS delegates grandstanded for the benefit of social sector
leaders who stared down on the plenary from the upper
balcony. The session dragged on for hours in confusion
before delegates began debate on Article 1 of the rules of
order, which pertained to whether the Assembly would be
"original" and plenipotentiary to "refound" Bolivia. The
list of speakers included 98 representatives, but after only

20 had spoken, Lazarte abruptly curtailed debate and called a
vote. As reported reftel, the MAS approved Article 1 by
simple majority.

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CHANGING THE RULES?
--------------


3. (C) Outside the Assembly, the principal debate among
opposition delegates was whether they could appeal the MAS'
use of a simple majority vote given the Assembly's now all
powerful nature. Some in the MAS argue that because the
Assembly is "original" and superior to the other state
powers, the Constitutional Tribunal does not have the
authority to review its decisions. Most legal experts assert
that while the MAS is calling the Assembly "original," the
Assembly cannot operate in a vacuum, as the current Bolivian
constitution expressly recognizes the authority of the
Constitutional Tribunal to review constitutional matters.
One National Revolutionary Movement (MNR) delegate may appeal
to the Constitutional Tribunal, but opposition delegates
voiced concern that an appeal would be pointless. Some
Podemos delegates discussed an appeal to the Interamerican
Court in San Jose, Costa Rica, but admitted that process
would take too long and any eventual ruling would be
difficult to enforce. Virtually all of the delegates
believed the MAS will pass its own rules of order, article by
article by simple majority. (NOTE: On October 3, the
Assembly approved eleven non-controversial articles of the
draft regulations, each by a two-thirds vote. The MNR and
the National Unity (UN) parties joined MAS delegates to

LA PAZ 00002683 002 OF 002


approve each article by more than the 170 votes required for
a two-thirds majority. END NOTE).

--------------
COMPROMISE UNLIKELY; VOTING RULES KEY
--------------


4. (C) The next major question to be decided is whether the
constitution will require a two-thirds vote (as mentioned in
the enabling legislation) or whether the MAS will
unilaterally change procedure to allow for a simple
majority-- and complete MAS dominance. The MAS' latest
proposal is for a simple majority vote, but gives the
opposition a limited veto to force a two-thirds vote on
certain constitutional measures and provides that if the
two-thirds vote fails, the matter would be decided via
popular referendum. Some small parties may support this
proposal, but the larger opposition parties indicate they
will reject it.


5. (C) While the Assembly will not likely debate this
mechanism this week, opposition representatives worried that
a compromise with the MAS is not likely. One delegate
reported that MAS delegates are not allowed to negotiate or
even interact with the opposition. (NOTE: In support of this
point, a MAS delegate told poloff that he was afraid to meet
in person, citing the culture of suspicion within his party
and the MAS' strict party discipline. END NOTE). UN party
delegates worried that because Morales raised his supporters'
expectations regarding the Assembly, the president cannot now
abandon the simple majority vote. They noted that the MAS
had thwarted negotiations numerous times, commenting that the
MAS seemed to want to generate conflict. Podemos delegates
cited the MAS' passage of the index of the rules of order by
simple majority, as well as the passage of Article 1, as
evidence that the MAS has undemocratic and authoritarian
designs on the Constituent Assembly. Small opposition party
delegates shared that concern, but also worried about Podemos
radicalizing its position.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) The MAS appears to be using its familiar syndicalist
style to push forward its agenda in the Assembly. While the
MAS' true colors may be beginning to show, the real test will
come later. It is unclear what path the opposition will
take-- challenging the MAS via 1) the domestic courts, 2) the
international arena, 3) the creation of a extra-legal
"parallel" Constituent Assembly, or 4) street protests.
Eastern Bolivian civic committees are planning a "national
meeting of democratic Bolivia" but have not yet specified a
date. If the Assembly continues to approve the MAS' rules of
debate by simple majority, there will be little doubt about
the MAS' intentions, and little room for the opposition to
influence the new constitution. Still, we assess that only
by continuing to work within the Assembly can the opposition
hope to expose the MAS' anti-democratic intentions. End
comment.
GOLDBERG