MAS MACHINATIONS AT CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY POLARIZE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 002636

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: MAS MACHINATIONS AT CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY POLARIZE
-- FOR NOW

REF: LA PAZ 2393

Classified By: DCM Kris R. Urs for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On September 28 in Sucre, on almost purely
party lines, the Constituent Assembly (CA) voted in favor of
Evo Morales' MAS party's proposal that it declare itself an
"originary" organ, and thus theoretically superior to all
other branches of government, including the legislature that
voted it into existence -- as well as the constitutional
court. This decision, should it hold, will not come into
force until after the new constitution for which the CA is
responsible is approved by a two-thirds majority in its final
form, although the MAS may well seek to change this in the
weeks ahead to allow for complete MAS dominance of the CA.
The opposition is calling foul, and has threatened vaguely to
seek assistance from international legal bodies, but this is
seen as a hollow threat. There seems to be no inclination on
the part of the independent constitutional court to review
this decision, although it is to be expected that the
opposition may file an appeal in the coming days.
Troublesomely, the opposition seems to be without a strategy,
beyond a vague desire to internationalize this issue. Given
opposition fecklessness, the MAS worst enemy as it rams
through its hegemonistic strategy may be itself. New
constitutions in Boliva are relatively common reforms in
Bolivian history; what has proven far more elusive is the
societal consensus that allows their successful
implementation. In this regard the MAS may soon find, like
so many other would-be Bolivian rulers, that its aggressive
constitutional reach far exceeds its grasp. End summary.

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MAS Plows Forward
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2. (C) Following more than a month of raucus and
increasingly deadlocked debate, the MAS decided late in the
evening of September 28 to push forward with its
controversial proposal to declare the CA an "originary" organ
of the state, thereby theoretically placing at at the highest
pinaccle of state power and superseding all others, including
the judiciary, the legislature, and even the presidency. The
decision, should it hold, will only come into force after the
entire constitution proposed by the CA is approved by an
internal two thirds vote, as the rules currently hold; but
the MAS shows every inclination to railroad through a change
to this rule as well, allowing for a simple majority vote on
all matters. (Given that the MAS enjoys a simple majority,
such a move would turn the CA into a mere rubber stamp body
for the MAS on all constitutional matters, and would
undoubtedly result in an extremely polemical, radical, and
potentially anti-democratic constitutional document, based
upon experience to date. For instance, alleged draft MAS
constitutions we've seen to date contain seriously flawed
understandings of basic human rights, and broadly define
social problems as human rights issues in potentially
profoundly undemocratic directions.)


3. (U) The vote was pushed through by the MAS CA president,
Sylvia Lazarte, with little regard for parliamentary
procedure. Lazarte cut off debate early in the discussion,
and the final vote was almost entirely on party lines. The
MAS "steamroller" eliminated the prospect of what had
appeared to be some promising opposition and MAS efforts
towards compromise in recent days. News reports indicate
that the scene in the CA at the time of the vote was
extremely tense, with in one case an opposition and a MAS
member nearly coming to blows. Attempting to delay the
voting, the opposition stood up and sang the Bolivian
national anthem, but the voting continued.

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Opposition Daydreams

LA PAZ 00002636 002 OF 002


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4. (C) While the scene at the CA was reportedly tense, at
least this time CA members avoided the descent into national
scandal following the melee of violence which charactized
the events of September 2, when Roman Loayiza fell from the
lectern and was seriously injured (Reftel). Nonetheless, the
opposition is predictably outraged by the MAS' heavy-handed
tactics. As yet, however, there have been no indications
that the opposition has any serious strategy to challenge
this vote effectively. There has been vague talk this
morning about the prospect of perhaps appealing for
international arbtration, but how the opposition thinks its
going to either obtain an international hearing or enforce it
remains to be seen. We have heard nothing yet about an
opposition effort to challenge this move in Bolivia's own
respected, independent constitutional tribunal, which seems
to us the court of first recourse.

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Comment
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5. (C) Given that this decision was undoubtedly taken at
the level of the presidency, it is best seen as a power grab
on the part of President Morales and his party as opposed to
such an effort on the part of the CA itself, which is
strictly obeying orders, according to all contacts with whom
we have spoken. As such it provides an interesting window
into President Morales' plans for the coming months. With
the CA deadlocked and CA president Sylvia Lazarte's
popularity down 15 points over the last 30 days, according to
a respected local polling firm, and "approval" of the
performance of the CA down some 24 percent over the same
period, it may be that Morales simply determined that he had
more to lose with continued stalemate than with a further
step towards open confrontation. In the MAS playbook,
confrontation seems to trump cooperation at every juncture.
The problem for this government is that its continued
reliance on confrontation is beginning to severely limit its
options. With the CA an increasingly discredited
constitutional body, it is becoming a seething pit of
opposition anger and frustration. New constitutions are not
that unusual in Bolivia; there have been some 21 in its
history. But for constitutions to work there must be
sufficient social consensus for their effective
implementation. What the MAS may soon find in Bolivia is
that its aggressive constitutional reach far exceeds its
grasp.

GOLDBERG