Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LAPAZ2415
2006-09-07 19:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:  

THE MEDIA LUNA STRIKE: WHICH SIDE WILL BLINK

Tags:  ECON PGOV PREL BL 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002415 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: THE MEDIA LUNA STRIKE: WHICH SIDE WILL BLINK
FIRST?

REF: LA PAZ 02393

Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002415

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: THE MEDIA LUNA STRIKE: WHICH SIDE WILL BLINK
FIRST?

REF: LA PAZ 02393

Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In response to growing ruling party
intransigence in the Constituent Assembly charged with
writing Bolivia's new constitution, the largely "media luna"
(Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, and Pando) based opposition has
called a regional general strike for September 8th (reftel
02393). Embassy officer met separately with several eastern
opposition political leaders to discuss their plans for the
general strike. The three leaders stated that the strike
will be successful throughout the eastern departments and
could even spill over into parts of Cochabamba and Chuqisaca.
They argued that radical elements are driving the MAS and
its positions, and believed that the strike would be an
effective response to the MAS' refusal to compromise. Our
contacts had no clear picture of the way forward following
the strike. End summary.


2. (C) Claudio Mansilla (former Trade Minister and Podemos
campaign manager, soy bean producer and current President of
the Private University of Santa Cruz),told us that the
"media luna" strike is not the solution to the Constituent
Assembly,s problems but he argued that it is warranted given
the situation. Mansilla averred that his business colleagues
in the highlands do not support the strike and are just happy
not to have blockades in La Paz since Morales took office;
nonetheless, the strike will succeed. Mansilla believes
Morales will be unwilling to compromise on the simple
majority issue because of pressures from his radical power
base. Mansilla said he does not have a good feel for which
side will blink first.


3. (C) Michiaki Nagatani (MNR Congressman from Santa Cruz
and former Presidential candidate) on the other hand, argued
that Morales will eventually compromise. Nagatani predicts
the strike will be very successful and cause Morales to step
back. Nagatani noted increasing discontent within the MAS
party, with some members of the MAS discreetly reaching out
to opposition party members. Nagatani argued that the
president is increasing moving towards second-guessing his
ministers. He noted that the Ministry of the Presidency has
started to send an "emissary" to all congressional meetings
involving ministers to report back what the various ministers
are telling members of congress. This is a sign, Nagatani
felt, that the president was losing confidence in his own
team's ability to manage the government.


4. (C) Congressman Rodrigo Ibanez (Podemos from Tarija) was
more pessimistic; he expressed a growing fear of the
possibility of violence, and claimed that he and other
opposition congressman have received threats from elements
associated with the MAS. He believes that radical elements
within the MAS party are forcing the government to harden its
position at every turn and will continue to push the division
between the east and west. Eastern Bolivian opposition
figures realize that the "media luna" would not be a viable
independent country, but fear Bolivia,s deterioration into
"another Cuba". Fearful that Bolivian democracy is eroding,
Ibanez would like international organizations to send
observers, but was vague about how that would help.


5. (C) Comment: None of the "media luna" contacts we
pulsed talked of independence, although the frustration level
is extremely high. All our contacts agreed that Morales and
his MAS party remain intent at stoking the flames of
confrontation. In this regard, we note that the president
has accused the opposition of separatism and threatened
investigations of thouse participating in the strike.
Podemos Senator Ortiz told us September 7 that "preparations
are all set" and he expects "massive participation". The
September 8 strike will be a test of wills as well as
rhetoric. End Comment.

GREENLEE