Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LAPAZ2393
2006-09-05 21:19:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:
CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY AT A CROSSROADS
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 002393
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY AT A CROSSROADS
REF: LA PAZ 2372
Classified By: DCM Krishna Urs for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 002393
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY AT A CROSSROADS
REF: LA PAZ 2372
Classified By: DCM Krishna Urs for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (C) Summary: The Constituent Assembly is at a crossroads
after political disagreements over its rules of order
escalated into violence September 1, resulting in MAS
delegates approving their own proposal for a majority vote on
constitutional changes after opposition parties abandoned the
session. The opposition has resisted the MAS' attempts to
steamroll the Assembly's rules and the "media luna" is
organizing a massive strike for September 8. While the GOB
has offered a proposal to end the stand-off, its
anti-democratic rhetoric has overshadowed this so-called
compromise. The GOB's handling of this conflict to date has
exacerbated east-west tension, and neither side seems
inclined to give any ground on the Assembly's rules. End
summary.
2. (SBU) The Constituent Assembly is at a crossroads after
political disagreements over its rules of order escalated
into violence September 1, resulting in MAS delegates
approving their own proposal for a majority vote on
constitutional changes after opposition parties abandoned the
session (reftel). In the chaos, MAS representative Ramon
Loaiza fell, suffering serious head injuries. Press reports
confirm that Loaiza, who remains hospitalized in Santa Cruz,
emerged from a coma and is responsive, although he is
unlikely to resume his position as MAS party leader in the
Assembly.
3. (SBU) The opposition has resisted the MAS' attempts to
steamroll the Assembly's rules and the "media luna"
(departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando and Tarija) is
planning a massive strike for September 8. Podemos leader
Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga has called for OAS and European Union
observers for the Assembly. While the opposition appears to
be mobilizing, it is unclear whether they will emerge with a
unified position, or even return when the Assembly resumes
session September 6.
4. (SBU) While the GOB has offered a proposal to end the
stand-off, its anti-democratic rhetoric has overshadowed this
so-called compromise. The GOB "concession" provides for an
absolute majority vote on constitutional changes; a 2/3 vote
on the final text (already required by the enabling
legislation); a possible modification of the rules of order
by 2/3 vote; and a referendum if the Assembly fails to
approve the final constitution by 2/3 vote (in contradiction
to the enabling legislation, which mandates a 2/3 vote and a
popular vote to approve the new constitution). Most view
this "compromise" as empty, particularly in light of the
GOB's recent rhetoric, which has included statements by Vice
President Garcia Linera that the MAS will get its simple
majority "one way or another" and Morales' characterization
of the opposition and the east as "blood suckers" who want to
sabotage the GOB's hydrocarbons nationalization and the
Assembly.
5. (C) Comment: The GOB's handling of this conflict to date
has exacerbated east-west tension. Morales' inflammatory
rhetoric will make consensus more difficult, as will his
stirring up of the social sectors (Morales first called on
them to travel to Sucre to defend the Assembly, but then,
apparently realizing this could have precipitated additional
violence, attempted to call them off). Neither the MAS nor
the opposition seems inclined to give any ground on the
Assembly's rules. La Paz Prefect Jose Luis "Pepe Lucho"
Paredes told the DCM September 5 that he believes a rapid
deterioration in the political situation is possible over the
next week, particularly given the possibility of a
transportation strike in La Paz early next week in support of
the opposition. The Assembly is a key element of the MAS
party platform and ultimately Morales needs a functioning and
legitimate Assembly to move his agenda forward. Given the
increasingly politically tense atmosphere, Morales may
calculate that now is the time to compromise and step back
LA PAZ 00002393 002 OF 002
from the brink. End comment.
GREENLEE
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY AT A CROSSROADS
REF: LA PAZ 2372
Classified By: DCM Krishna Urs for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (C) Summary: The Constituent Assembly is at a crossroads
after political disagreements over its rules of order
escalated into violence September 1, resulting in MAS
delegates approving their own proposal for a majority vote on
constitutional changes after opposition parties abandoned the
session. The opposition has resisted the MAS' attempts to
steamroll the Assembly's rules and the "media luna" is
organizing a massive strike for September 8. While the GOB
has offered a proposal to end the stand-off, its
anti-democratic rhetoric has overshadowed this so-called
compromise. The GOB's handling of this conflict to date has
exacerbated east-west tension, and neither side seems
inclined to give any ground on the Assembly's rules. End
summary.
2. (SBU) The Constituent Assembly is at a crossroads after
political disagreements over its rules of order escalated
into violence September 1, resulting in MAS delegates
approving their own proposal for a majority vote on
constitutional changes after opposition parties abandoned the
session (reftel). In the chaos, MAS representative Ramon
Loaiza fell, suffering serious head injuries. Press reports
confirm that Loaiza, who remains hospitalized in Santa Cruz,
emerged from a coma and is responsive, although he is
unlikely to resume his position as MAS party leader in the
Assembly.
3. (SBU) The opposition has resisted the MAS' attempts to
steamroll the Assembly's rules and the "media luna"
(departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando and Tarija) is
planning a massive strike for September 8. Podemos leader
Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga has called for OAS and European Union
observers for the Assembly. While the opposition appears to
be mobilizing, it is unclear whether they will emerge with a
unified position, or even return when the Assembly resumes
session September 6.
4. (SBU) While the GOB has offered a proposal to end the
stand-off, its anti-democratic rhetoric has overshadowed this
so-called compromise. The GOB "concession" provides for an
absolute majority vote on constitutional changes; a 2/3 vote
on the final text (already required by the enabling
legislation); a possible modification of the rules of order
by 2/3 vote; and a referendum if the Assembly fails to
approve the final constitution by 2/3 vote (in contradiction
to the enabling legislation, which mandates a 2/3 vote and a
popular vote to approve the new constitution). Most view
this "compromise" as empty, particularly in light of the
GOB's recent rhetoric, which has included statements by Vice
President Garcia Linera that the MAS will get its simple
majority "one way or another" and Morales' characterization
of the opposition and the east as "blood suckers" who want to
sabotage the GOB's hydrocarbons nationalization and the
Assembly.
5. (C) Comment: The GOB's handling of this conflict to date
has exacerbated east-west tension. Morales' inflammatory
rhetoric will make consensus more difficult, as will his
stirring up of the social sectors (Morales first called on
them to travel to Sucre to defend the Assembly, but then,
apparently realizing this could have precipitated additional
violence, attempted to call them off). Neither the MAS nor
the opposition seems inclined to give any ground on the
Assembly's rules. La Paz Prefect Jose Luis "Pepe Lucho"
Paredes told the DCM September 5 that he believes a rapid
deterioration in the political situation is possible over the
next week, particularly given the possibility of a
transportation strike in La Paz early next week in support of
the opposition. The Assembly is a key element of the MAS
party platform and ultimately Morales needs a functioning and
legitimate Assembly to move his agenda forward. Given the
increasingly politically tense atmosphere, Morales may
calculate that now is the time to compromise and step back
LA PAZ 00002393 002 OF 002
from the brink. End comment.
GREENLEE