Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LAPAZ205
2006-01-27 19:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:  

EARLY WARNING SIGNS?

Tags:  ECON PGOV PREL BL 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4787
PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHLP #0205/01 0271945
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 271945Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7886
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5560
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 2823
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6694
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 3908
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1269
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 1163
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 3530
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 3910
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 8422
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 000205 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: EARLY WARNING SIGNS?

Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 000205

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: EARLY WARNING SIGNS?

Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: President Morales' first week in office has
brought public and private reassurances that his government
will cooperate with the USG and respect democracy and the
rule of law, but there are also some early warning signs that
the new government may undermine democratic institutions. To
date, Morales has skipped over three classes of eligible
generals in naming the new military high command, has
signaled that U.S. military officials might have limited
access to Bolivian military installations, has blurred lines
between the executive and legislative branches by inviting
congressional leadership to live with him in his official
residence, has slashed executive branch salaries, and has
moved toward limiting freedom of the press. These signs
could be insignificant GOB bungling, or they could be
something more. End summary.


2. (C) President Morales' first week in office has brought
public and private reassurances that his government will
cooperate with the USG and respect democracy and the rule of
law. In a meeting with a visiting staffdel (see septel) on
January 25, Vice-President Alvaro Garcia Linera said all the
right things -- that the GOB will work with the U.S. on
counternarcotics, that it recognizes the importance of free
trade, and that the GOB realizes that it cannot fully
function without U.S. assistance. Garcia Linera promised
that the GOB will not expropriate private property without
just compensation, and that Bolivia will follow its own path
instead of that of its Bolivarian neighbors, stating that
"countries don't have friends, only interests."


3. (C) Despite these assurances, the new Morales government
has made some erratic and potentially troubling decisions in
its first week. In naming a new military high command,
Morales cleaned house, using the still-brewing MANDPADs
scandal as pretext. He skipped over three classes of
eligible generals and sent large numbers of capable officers
into mandatory retirement so he could appoint MAS supporter
Wilfredo Vargas Valdez as the new commander of the armed
forces. According to one source, Vargas has hinted, but has
not officially declared, that U.S. military officials might
have limited (or no) access to Bolivian military
installations.


4. (C) Additionally, President Morales has blurred lines
between the executive and legislative branches by inviting
congressional leadership to live with him in his official
residence. Fulfilling his promise, he has slashed executive
branch salaries. Morales is leading by example (his own
salary dropping from approximately 30,000 bolivianos, or
$3750, per month to 15,000 bolivianos, or $1875, monthly),
but has declared that no government official can earn more
than him, thus requiring drastic cuts in public sector
salaries across the board. Some political analysts believe
that the salary reduction is a tactic to force high-level
bureaucrats to resign or to intimidate them into following
the party line.


5. (C) The MAS faction in Congress is also working on a bill
to limit press freedoms. A MAS deputy told us that the bill
will set norms for the media, emphasizing more responsible,
less sensationalist coverage that avoids personal attacks and
offenses. The media labor union stated that it would attempt
to block passage of the law, and would take to the streets in
protest. Morales' spokesman, Alex Contreras, went on the
defensive, stating that the law would not undermine freedom
of the press and promising to allow widespread discussion of
the bill before it comes to a congressional vote. Embassy
contacts also tell us that the GOB is assembling its own
government television station, which would operate in
addition to official Bolivian TV, and that Venezuela plans to
help install radio stations for their "literacy" program.


6. (C) Comment: These early signs, when viewed separately,
don't necessarily set off alarm bells. But taken together,
they could be signals of the new GOB's intent to undermine

LA PAZ 00000205 002 OF 002


democratic institutions. They could also signal little more
than the mis-steps of a government with no experience in
manipulating the levers of power, and unaware of the
consequences that might flow from these. Still, for many
observers, the benefit of the doubt has begun to erode. End
comment.
GREENLEE