Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LAPAZ1743
2006-06-27 19:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:
LATEST POLLS ON CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001743
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/AND L.PETRONI
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: LATEST POLLS ON CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY
Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001743
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/AND L.PETRONI
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: LATEST POLLS ON CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY
Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (SBU) With less than a week before the July 2 Constituent
Assembly elections, a June 17-18 Apoyo opinion poll of all
nine department capitals projects the MAS will win at least
114 of 255 seats in the Assembly. According to the poll, MAS
candidates are likely to win 14 of the 45 department-wide
(plurinominal) and 100 of the 210 district (uninominal)
contests. The MAS is followed by Podemos, which is expected
to garner 12 department-wide and 66 district seats, and the
National Unity (UN) party, projected to win 7 plurinominal
and 5 uninominal seats.
2. (SBU) The poll also indicates that the referendum on
departmental autonomy will pass in four departments (Beni,
Santa Cruz, Tarija, and Pando). According to the poll, two
departments are too close to call (Chuquisaca and
Cochabamba),and three departments (Potosi, La Paz and Oruro)
are expected to vote against autonomy.
3. (C) Comment: Polling for the Constituent Assembly election
has been very thin. The Apoyo poll has two principal
weaknesses -- it did not take into account voter absenteeism
(which could be around 40 percent, according to some
analysts),and it failed to cover rural areas where the MAS
is strongest. The poll's prediction that the MAS will garner
40 percent of the national vote is out of line with general
expectations here. Most analysts believe the MAS will win 48
to 52 percent of the national vote. The poll's projections
that Podemos will win around 20 percent and the National
Unity party will win around 10 percent of the national vote
may be more accurate since the opposition is stronger in
urban areas. End comment.
GREENLEE
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/AND L.PETRONI
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: LATEST POLLS ON CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY
Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (SBU) With less than a week before the July 2 Constituent
Assembly elections, a June 17-18 Apoyo opinion poll of all
nine department capitals projects the MAS will win at least
114 of 255 seats in the Assembly. According to the poll, MAS
candidates are likely to win 14 of the 45 department-wide
(plurinominal) and 100 of the 210 district (uninominal)
contests. The MAS is followed by Podemos, which is expected
to garner 12 department-wide and 66 district seats, and the
National Unity (UN) party, projected to win 7 plurinominal
and 5 uninominal seats.
2. (SBU) The poll also indicates that the referendum on
departmental autonomy will pass in four departments (Beni,
Santa Cruz, Tarija, and Pando). According to the poll, two
departments are too close to call (Chuquisaca and
Cochabamba),and three departments (Potosi, La Paz and Oruro)
are expected to vote against autonomy.
3. (C) Comment: Polling for the Constituent Assembly election
has been very thin. The Apoyo poll has two principal
weaknesses -- it did not take into account voter absenteeism
(which could be around 40 percent, according to some
analysts),and it failed to cover rural areas where the MAS
is strongest. The poll's prediction that the MAS will garner
40 percent of the national vote is out of line with general
expectations here. Most analysts believe the MAS will win 48
to 52 percent of the national vote. The poll's projections
that Podemos will win around 20 percent and the National
Unity party will win around 10 percent of the national vote
may be more accurate since the opposition is stronger in
urban areas. End comment.
GREENLEE