HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 001729

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/AND P.FRENCH AND L.PETRONI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF?

REF: A. LA PAZ 1157


B. LA PAZ 1517

C. LA PAZ 1660

Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Bolivia's 1952 revolution, led by the
National Revolutionary Movement (MNR),redistributed land and
nationalized mining resources (including tin, Bolivia's
principal export at the time) in an effort to correct
economic disparity and established universal suffrage to
promote greater social inclusion among the indigenous. Half
a century later, President Morales, via the July 2
Constituent Assembly, promises to "refound" Bolivia on behalf
of its indigenous majority, redistributing land and
nationalizing natural resources. Morales' official campaign
platform is clearly leftist, but not extreme; his critics
fear that his unofficial policies are much more radical.
While today's Bolivia is not the Bolivia of 1952, the demands
of Bolivia's indigenous majority remain largely unchanged.
Morales will attempt to meet those demands via the
Constituent Assembly, but if he loses, he may find another
means to the same ends. End summary.


2. (SBU) After three days of intense fighting between armed
peasants and miners and the Bolivian army, the National
Revolutionary Movement (MNR) regained power in April 1952.
Prior to the revolution, the Bolivian state was weak, the
economy was stagnant, and the indigenous majority suffered
from social, economic, and political exclusion. Most
Bolivians perceived land distribution as unjust, and many
criticized the "underutilization" of large estates. In 1950,
Bolivia, still dependent on tin exports, was the world's
highest-cost producer of tin, with little to show in terms of
profits.


3. (SBU) The MNR's populist program mobilized Bolivia's
middle class and peasants to completely reorganize society.
Militias sprung up throughout Bolivia, and armed peasants
began seizing land and calling for nationalization of natural
resources. Once in office, President Victor Paz Estenssoro
met popular demands (and pressure from the labor sector) by
breaking up many of western Bolivia's latifundios,
nationalizing the mining sector (via the creation of COMIBOL,
the state-owned mining company),establishing universal
suffrage by eliminating literacy requirements for voters, and
beginning to rebuild the weak Bolivian state.


4. (SBU) Half a century later, President Morales, via the
upcoming Constituent Assembly, promises to "refound" Bolivia
on behalf of its indigenous majority, redistributing land and
nationalizing natural resources (see reftels). He also
proposes political changes. The Movement Toward Socialism
(MAS) party advocates amending the Constitution to provide
for a second round if no presidential candidate wins 50
percent plus one vote in the first round (as opposed to
sending the vote to Congress). The official MAS position is
that the president should serve a five-year term with no
possibility of re-election, with the people granted the power
to revoke the president's mandate by direct popular vote.
The party's economic platform is based on rejection of the
"neoliberal" model and pursuit of international economic
relations "with dignity and sovereignty" (see reftels).
Socially, the MAS promises universal access to health care
and education. The party's official proposal also vaguely
discusses new administrative and political subdivisions
within regional departments to recognize indigenous
communities and seeks to "decolonize" the judicial system by
electing judges and prosecutors. In short, the MAS' official
proposal is clearly leftist, but not extreme.


5. (C) Morales' critics, however, fear that his unofficial
policies are much more radical. Many analysts and opposition
figures agree that the Morales government will attempt to
consolidate power by calling new national elections following

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the Constituent Assembly to renew its mandate and strengthen
its control over Congress and the prefects. On many issues,
the Morales government engages in "double talk," putting
forth its moderate official position while encouraging its
bases to take a more radical approach. For example, while
the MAS is not officially pursuing presidential re-election,
individual MAS officials and social sector groups have called
for it. Likewise, while Vice President Garcia Linera has
said the GOB's official position on departmental autonomy is
neutral, many MAS officials have clearly stated their
opposition to autonomy, and even Morales has stated he will
personally vote against it.


6. (C) The MAS' alleged campaign tactics support the
opposition's theories that the MAS has hidden, undemocratic
aims. In addition to reports that the MAS will use
syndicalist pressure to get out the vote on July 2 (using
either bribes or threats as leverage),opposition political
parties offer anecdotal evidence of the MAS' undemocratic
tendencies. On June 25, participants in a MAS march
intimidated supporters of other political parties, coming to
blows with an MNR candidate who resisted pressure to clear
the MAS' planned route. A female Podemos Constituent
Assembly candidate told Emboffs that she frequently receives
threatening phone calls and has gotten dead animals in the
mail. A few weeks ago, her car, full of campaign materials,
was stolen. When the materials resurfaced, illegally posted
in churches and restricted campaign areas, she was fined.
The candidate attributes the intimidation tactics to the MAS,
although she has no proof.


7. (C) Comment: While today's Bolivia is not the Bolivia of
1952, the demands of Bolivia's indigenous majority remain
largely unchanged. The populist rhetoric of the 1950's is
the core of Morales' campaign. Land distribution,
nationalization of natural resources (this time
hydrocarbons),and social inclusion are the big issues, just
as they were over fifty years ago. As in the '50's, the
Bolivian state is weak, and people are ready for drastic
change. In some ways, history is repeating itself. Morales
will attempt to meet the people's demands via the Constituent
Assembly, but if he loses, he may govern by decree as another
means to the same ends. End comment.
GREENLEE