Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LAPAZ1597
2006-06-13 15:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:
COUNTDOWN TO CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTION
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 001597
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/AND L.PETRONI
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: COUNTDOWN TO CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTION
REF: A. LA PAZ 1322
B. LA PAZ 1414
Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 001597
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/AND L.PETRONI
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: COUNTDOWN TO CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTION
REF: A. LA PAZ 1322
B. LA PAZ 1414
Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (C) Summary: With three weeks to go before the July 2
Constituent Assembly elections, polls in La Paz, Cochabamba
and Santa Cruz, together representing 70 percent of the
population, indicate Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS)
party will win approximately 45 percent of the vote, with
Podemos and the National Unity (UN) party grabbing 10 percent
each and the National Revolutionary Movement (MNR) taking
around 5 percent. Much of the population remains undecided
due to voter fatigue and lack of information about the
Constituent Assembly. While voters generally seem to favor
departmental autonomy in the national referendum also
scheduled for July 2, the department-by-department results
will leave the Constituent Assembly the unenviable role of
putting referendum results into practice. With polling even
less reliable than that available in December and increased
voter apathy, election results are impossible to foretell,
although all signs still indicate the MAS will win less than
the 2/3 necessary to control the Assembly. End summary.
2. (SBU) With three weeks to go before the July 2 Constituent
Assembly elections, polls in La Paz, Cochabamba and Santa
Cruz, together representing 70 percent of the population,
indicate Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party will
win approximately 45 percent of the vote, with Podemos and
the National Unity (UN) party grabbing 10 percent each and
the National Revolutionary Movement (MNR) taking around 5
percent (data from May 29 Apoyo poll). Because of the
expense involved, no political party is polling in all 70
electoral districts; instead parties are conducting private
polls in limited districts where interest is high or
competition fierce.
3. (SBU) Twenty to twenty-five percent of the population
remains undecided due to voter fatigue and a lack of
information about the Constituent Assembly. The National
Electoral Court (CNE) is running a series of supplements in
the major daily newspapers offering party-by-party position
statements on a variety of topics -- to date covering the
major issues the Assembly will address, possible forms of
government, and the role of the legislative branch. The CNE
has also launched an educational campaign called "Road to the
Constituent Assembly," in which six persons representative of
Bolivian society travel together in a bus which breaks down.
In the story, released via a series of TV spots and cartoon
pamphlets, the travelers jointly decide what path they will
choose, thus serving as a teaching point for the mechanics of
the Constituent Assembly election, how the Assembly will
function, and the types of issues it will address.
4. (C) Voters seem to favor departmental autonomy in the
national referendum also scheduled for July 2. To this
point, President Morales and Vice President Garcia Linera
have allowed other MAS officials to take the lead opposing
autonomy, given their previous declarations favoring it, but
that appears to be changing. On June 12, Morales stated that
he opposes "the autonomy proposed by Santa Cruz." In the La
Paz department's altiplano, the MAS has purchased radio ads
encouraging the party loyal to "vote no." Autonomy continues
to be a high priority for the "media luna" departments of
Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando and Tarija, setting the stage for a
possible east-west split on the issue. Because the
referendum results will be enforced by department (some
departments can opt in favor, while others may opt out),the
Constituent Assembly will have the unenviable role of
structuring the new government in accordance with the results
of the referendum.
5. (C) Comment: With polling even less reliable than that
available in December and increased voter apathy, election
results are impossible to foretell, although all signs still
LA PAZ 00001597 002 OF 002
indicate the MAS will win less than the 2/3 necessary to
control the Assembly (reftels). Morales' popularity remains
high, but he faces discontent from Santa Cruz and the
business sector and increasing conflicts over land. His
economic plan, due out later this week, could generate
additional criticism from the business community, but
regardless of content, it is not likely to have a negative
effect on his popularity with the masses. End comment.
GREENLEE
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/AND L.PETRONI
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: COUNTDOWN TO CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTION
REF: A. LA PAZ 1322
B. LA PAZ 1414
Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (C) Summary: With three weeks to go before the July 2
Constituent Assembly elections, polls in La Paz, Cochabamba
and Santa Cruz, together representing 70 percent of the
population, indicate Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS)
party will win approximately 45 percent of the vote, with
Podemos and the National Unity (UN) party grabbing 10 percent
each and the National Revolutionary Movement (MNR) taking
around 5 percent. Much of the population remains undecided
due to voter fatigue and lack of information about the
Constituent Assembly. While voters generally seem to favor
departmental autonomy in the national referendum also
scheduled for July 2, the department-by-department results
will leave the Constituent Assembly the unenviable role of
putting referendum results into practice. With polling even
less reliable than that available in December and increased
voter apathy, election results are impossible to foretell,
although all signs still indicate the MAS will win less than
the 2/3 necessary to control the Assembly. End summary.
2. (SBU) With three weeks to go before the July 2 Constituent
Assembly elections, polls in La Paz, Cochabamba and Santa
Cruz, together representing 70 percent of the population,
indicate Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party will
win approximately 45 percent of the vote, with Podemos and
the National Unity (UN) party grabbing 10 percent each and
the National Revolutionary Movement (MNR) taking around 5
percent (data from May 29 Apoyo poll). Because of the
expense involved, no political party is polling in all 70
electoral districts; instead parties are conducting private
polls in limited districts where interest is high or
competition fierce.
3. (SBU) Twenty to twenty-five percent of the population
remains undecided due to voter fatigue and a lack of
information about the Constituent Assembly. The National
Electoral Court (CNE) is running a series of supplements in
the major daily newspapers offering party-by-party position
statements on a variety of topics -- to date covering the
major issues the Assembly will address, possible forms of
government, and the role of the legislative branch. The CNE
has also launched an educational campaign called "Road to the
Constituent Assembly," in which six persons representative of
Bolivian society travel together in a bus which breaks down.
In the story, released via a series of TV spots and cartoon
pamphlets, the travelers jointly decide what path they will
choose, thus serving as a teaching point for the mechanics of
the Constituent Assembly election, how the Assembly will
function, and the types of issues it will address.
4. (C) Voters seem to favor departmental autonomy in the
national referendum also scheduled for July 2. To this
point, President Morales and Vice President Garcia Linera
have allowed other MAS officials to take the lead opposing
autonomy, given their previous declarations favoring it, but
that appears to be changing. On June 12, Morales stated that
he opposes "the autonomy proposed by Santa Cruz." In the La
Paz department's altiplano, the MAS has purchased radio ads
encouraging the party loyal to "vote no." Autonomy continues
to be a high priority for the "media luna" departments of
Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando and Tarija, setting the stage for a
possible east-west split on the issue. Because the
referendum results will be enforced by department (some
departments can opt in favor, while others may opt out),the
Constituent Assembly will have the unenviable role of
structuring the new government in accordance with the results
of the referendum.
5. (C) Comment: With polling even less reliable than that
available in December and increased voter apathy, election
results are impossible to foretell, although all signs still
LA PAZ 00001597 002 OF 002
indicate the MAS will win less than the 2/3 necessary to
control the Assembly (reftels). Morales' popularity remains
high, but he faces discontent from Santa Cruz and the
business sector and increasing conflicts over land. His
economic plan, due out later this week, could generate
additional criticism from the business community, but
regardless of content, it is not likely to have a negative
effect on his popularity with the masses. End comment.
GREENLEE