Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LAPAZ1322
2006-05-17 12:50:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:  

MAS HAS STRONG ADVANTAGE ENTERING THE CONSTITUENT

Tags:  ECON PGOV PREL SOCI BL 
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VZCZCXRO8030
PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHLP #1322/01 1371250
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 171250Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9213
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5852
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3155
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 7012
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 4260
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1553
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 1530
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 3788
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 4193
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 8735
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 001322 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL SOCI BL
SUBJECT: MAS HAS STRONG ADVANTAGE ENTERING THE CONSTITUENT
ASSEMBLY CAMPAIGN

REF: A. LA PAZ 01317


B. LA PAZ 01254

C. LA PAZ 01265

Classified By: Charge D'Affaires David Robinson for reasons 1.4(b) and
(d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 001322

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL SOCI BL
SUBJECT: MAS HAS STRONG ADVANTAGE ENTERING THE CONSTITUENT
ASSEMBLY CAMPAIGN

REF: A. LA PAZ 01317


B. LA PAZ 01254

C. LA PAZ 01265

Classified By: Charge D'Affaires David Robinson for reasons 1.4(b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Evo Morales and his Movement
Toward Socialism (MAS) party will launch their campaign for
the 2 July Constituent Assembly election on May 26 riding a
wave of popular support for the President's hydrocarbons
nationalization decree. The MAS remains the most powerful
party nationwide, and Morales, aided by massive media
coverage, by far the most prominent political figure. The
MAS is well-positioned to compete in every district in
western Bolivia, and our contacts say the MAS has built a
network of allies among sympathetic smaller political groups
in many districts to compete for the delegate awarded to the
runner-up. On the other hand, the MAS could be hurt by
competition from indigenous and center-left parties in some
districts, by declining middle class support in others, and
by weakness in the east. (Reftel) Overall, most observers at
this stage believe the MAS may win a solid majority of
delegates, but fall short of the two-thirds, or 170
delegates, needed to control the Assembly. END SUMMARY.

The Dominant Political Force
--------------

2. (SBU) As campaigning begins for the July Constituent
Assembly election, President Morales and the MAS are riding a
wave of euphoria over hydrocarbons nationalization, and are
positioned to win a solid majority of Assembly delegates.
Observers note that Morales and his party dominate the
current political scene with control of Congress, high
approval numbers, and the only articulated national agenda.
While the opposition struggles to revive existing leaders or
to find new leadership, Morales is the clear and popular
leader of the MAS government. Our contacts also say the MAS
has a sizeable funding advantage and allege that the party is
using control of state resources to bolster its campaign.
The press reports that the MAS is feeding its coffers further

with funds from supporters holding public office--mandatory
"donations" ranging from 5 to 30 percent of their salaries.


3. (SBU) Broad press coverage of the government has
reinforced MAS dominance. Bolivian print and television news
media--particularly the main La Paz-based outlets--focus
their political coverage almost exclusively on the activities
of the President and his top officials, with little room for
opposition activities apart from strikes threatened by
political and civic leaders in Santa Cruz. One academic
contact told poloff that he measured 25 television references
to the MAS for every reference to the opposition. Not all
the MAS press coverage is positive, but local analysts
believe that the constant drumbeat favors the MAS.


4. (SBU) Congressional election results from last December
also suggest that the MAS will dominate the July election.
MAS candidates won 39 of 44 districts in La Paz, Potosi,
Oruro, Cochabamba, and Chuquisaca by an average margin of
over 30 percent, and won 14 of these districts by more than
40 percent. By contrast, the MAS lost the other five
districts by an average of only five percent, suggesting the
MAS is competitive in all districts in these departments this
time around. In the opposition-dominated eastern lowland
"half moon" ("media luna") the MAS won an additional 5 of 26
districts because the non-MAS vote split between several
parties.

Building Alliances to Win Extra Delegates
-------------- -

5. (SBU) The MAS has reportedly worked to bolster its
Assembly delegate count by forming electoral alliances with
smaller parties in districts where the MAS dominates in an
effort to win both first and second place. This strategy
could allow them to secure the two delegates given to the

LA PAZ 00001322 002 OF 002


winner in each district, as well as the delegate reserved for
the runner-up. Hugo Moldiz, a key MAS organizer, told the
press the "alliance tactic" will allow the MAS to take
advantage of its strongholds and offset the electoral rules,
which he describes as "too flexible" and generous to the
opposition.


6. (SBU) The MAS alliance strategy could pay off in various
districts in western Bolivia where the MAS won by wide
margins. Local contacts say the MAS formed a key alliance
with the Bolivian Liberation Movement (MBL),which is running
candidates in Chuquisaca and several other MAS-leaning
departments. MAS alliances could also perform well in
Cochabamba (particularly the Chapare coca-growing region) as
well as La Paz (particularly El Alto, the Altiplano, and the
Yungas) where the MAS won nine districts by over 50 percent.

But Still Difficult to Reach Two-Thirds
--------------

7. (SBU) The MAS's continued weakness in the "media luna" is
the party's biggest hurdle in its effort to win two-thirds of
the Assembly delegates. The party has also alienated various
social groups with its autocratic style (ref C),which could
open opportunities for center-left and indigenous parties not
linked to the MAS to capture a number of delegates. In
Potosi, the popular indigenous mayor Rene Joaquino is running
a slate of candidates that he told poloff would give the MAS
strong competition in key districts in that department. In
La Paz, the head of the indigenous party Ayra told poloff he
has several candidates that could win second place in
districts in El Alto and the Altiplano. The Ayra leader said
he formed an alliance with the Indigenous Pachakuti Movement
(MIP),a long-time MAS rival that won second place in six
Altiplano districts last December.


8. (SBU) The MAS could also be hurt by a decline in middle
class support. Local analysts say middle class support for
Morales last December helped his party win several
congressional districts--including the wealthy residential
neighborhoods of La Paz--and contributed to his large margin
of victory. Some analysts argue, however, that the middle
class may vote against the MAS in the Assembly elections to
prevent Morales from accumulating too much power. If some
middle class voters turn from Morales, the MAS could face
strong competition in several wealthier districts where the
opposition is running popular candidates, such as Miraflores
and the Zona Sur in La Paz.


9. (C) COMMENT: The MAS has a clear advantage entering
campaign season for the Constituent Assembly election and is
well positioned to win a majority of delegates, enough to
control the direction and tenor of the Assembly. But it may
have difficulty winning the two-thirds of the delegates
necessary to change the constitution unopposed. Although not
the MAS's ideal scenario, the party may still get what it
wants--some analysts argue the MAS could employ a
divide-and-conquer strategy against the fractured opposition
by cutting deals with separate parties on separate issues to
ensure passage of its proposals. END COMMENT.
ROBINSON