BREAKING NEWS APPEARS POSITIVE, BUT DOUBTS REMAIN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000082

SIPDIS

NOFORN

STATE PASS DOE FOR DAS JBRODMAN AND CGAY
TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS AND SRENENDER
COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS
STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ
STATE FOR DS/IP/AF, AF/EX, DS/IP/OPO, DS/ICI/PII, DS/DSS/ITA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015
TAGS: EPET PGOV ASEC PTER KHLS PINR ETRD CASC NI
SUBJECT: BREAKING NEWS APPEARS POSITIVE, BUT DOUBTS REMAIN

REF: A. LAGOS 81 AND PREVIOUS

B. ABUJA 76

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief for Reasons 1.4 (D & E)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The committee set up to negotiate the release of the
Tidex hostages (reftels) met today and announced progress in
identifying the kidnappers, and again promised a positive
outcome to the crisis in short order. The Bayelsa Governor,
as chairman of the group, provided photographs of the
hostages that indicates they are not in as bad health as
previously reported. The Governor also claimed that he is
the only person with whom the group will talk, and that it is
splintering over disagreement about the hostages. While we
have no solid reason to doubt this rosy picture, questions
about the veracity of the information remain. With these
positive developments originating from one source of
information, we will work to verify them independently. END
SUMMARY.

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Presidential Committee Kicks Off
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2. (C) Bayelsa Governor Goodluck Jonathan chaired the
first meeting of the government's committee on the hostage
crisis, and presented himself as engaged and optimistic.
While Governor Jonathan is nominally in charge, Econoff, who
attended the meeting, said de facto leadership appears to be
in the hands of an unidentified senior-level State Security
Service (SSS) official. Minister of State for Petroleum
Resources Daukuro; Dr. Igali, Bayelsa State Secretary of the
Government (SSG); Emmanuel Uduaghan, Delta State SSG; the
Rivers State Commissioner of Information; Bayelsa
Commissioner of Police; and others are also members. The
committee plans to re-convene at 1100 on 23 January. Econoff
will have another meeting with the Governor before that time.

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GON Identifies Possible Mastermind
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3. (C) Governor Jonathan indicated the kidnappers told him
Abel Ebifemowei, ex-Governor Alamieyeseigha's cousin and
Bayelsa State transportation official, had masterminded the
kidnapping, gathering youths from Ondo, Rivers, Bayelsa, and
Delta states and funding their activities. Ebifemowei is
also under suspicion for assisting Alamieyeseigha's escape
from UK authorities in December 2005. The SSG said the GON
plans to issue a warrant for his arrest on allegations of
organizing and financing militia activity in four states.


4. (C) According to the Bayelsa SSG, Ebifemowei fled on
January 18 to his Atlanta residence. The SSG said Professor
Okoko, leader of the Ijaw National Congress, got up from a
January 22 meeting to answer "an important call from the
U.S.," which most people interpreted as a call from
Ebifemowei.


5. (SBU) Nigerian press reports indicate O.O. Ogah and
Company filed a complaint against Ebifemowei with the
Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) on July 13,
2005, for allegations of money laundering. A Scotland
Yard representative assigned to the hostage case confirms
Ebifemowei is implicated in the crimes for which former Gov.
Alamieyesigha is being tried in the U.K. Press reports
allege Ebifemowei launders money through three firms: Mowei
Communications, Edubamo Ventures, and Ebilayefa Resources
Ltd. Bayelsa State contacts describe Mowei Communications as
a shell company. The Mowei Communication office and home
address Ebifemowei provided on his DS-156 visa application
are identical. (COMMENT: While Ebifemowei is not highly
reputable, Mission is concerned that he may be a convenient
political scapegoat for the kidnappings. END COMMENT)


6. (S/NF) Ebifemowei was issued a non-immigrant visa at
ConGen Lagos on April 28, 2005. Lagos consular section gave
the original DS-156 application form to the FBI.
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Presidential Committee Kicks Off, Lack of Cohesion Evident
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7. (C) In the meeting, Governor Jonathan claimed the
kidnappers would negotiate with no one but him. Later,
Minister Daukoru requested our advice on security issues and
negotiation tactics, as well as technical assistance in
locating the hostages and initiating wire taps. Despite
Minister Daukoru's forthcoming request for assistance (a
request ostensibly endorsed by President Obasanjo, who
dispatched Minister Daukoru to Yenagoa to assist in resolving
the crisis),the meeting demonstrated deep divisions within
the GON regarding accepting U.S. and U.K. assistance in
resolving the kidnapping. With the SSS representative and
the Delta State SSG leading opposition to cooperation and
information sharing, the meeting yielded little progress.
After asking Econoff and the HMG representative to step out
of the meeting, the committee did not agree to designate a
contact for USG/SSS liaison. They declined to provide contact
information for the former chief of the Iduwini people and
Government Ekpompolo, with whom they are in discussions.


8. (C) GON representatives were optimistic about the
release of the hostages, with Governor Goodluck predicting
the situation would be resolved within 24 hours, and SSG
Igali predicting resolution by 23 January. GON
representatives claimed the hostages are in the Nkerokoko
area, based on witness reports of non-local food deliveries
to the area.


9. (C) Bayelsa Attorney General Dixon finally told us he
met with the kidnappers on 19 January, at their request. He
agreed the hostages were in the Nkerokoko area, and the
kidnappers told him they were in good health. He told them
no negotiations could take place before the hostages were
released. AG Dixon told us he recognized one the kidnappers
as a known illegal bunkerer; he did not see any FNDIC members
known to him.


10. (C) Bayelsa SSG said the kidnappers are splintered,
with the larger faction believing they have gone too far and
should release the hostages and the smaller wanting to
continue to hold them. He also spoke with the uncle of
Government Ekpompolo, who said that while his nephew is not
directly involved, many of "his boys" are and that Government
could stop them but would not unless the GON gave assurances
regarding the safety of his men.

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COMMENT
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11. (C) In the last 24 hours, we have seen a substantial
increase in communication about the hostages through official
channels and increasingly optimistic assessments of their
condition. This appears to be good news. However, the
information is coming from a single source: the Governor of
Bayelsa State directly or through his SSG. Yesterday, we
characterized the governor as weak and out of the loop, but
today he tells us he is the only one with whom the kidnappers
will negotiate. And at least one element of the presidential
committee also appears to have ruled out FNDIC involvement
without providing any justification for doing so. The
governor's assessment that divisions within the kidnappers
will lead to the hostages imminent release sounds positive,
but so have many other statements over the past ten days.
Most of these positive developments depend on one source of
information, and we have yet to independently confirm them.
HOWE