PRESIDENT TO RESHUFFLE CABINET AND PDP AFTER THIRD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000720

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI THIRDTERM
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT TO RESHUFFLE CABINET AND PDP AFTER THIRD
TERM LOSS


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Transcorp Director and Obasanjo insider Otunba Funso
Lawal told the Consul General the President, stung by the
third term amendment defeat, was planning to reshuffle his
cabinet and the PDP machinery to reward the faithful and to
bruise the indifferent and disloyal. By these moves,
Obasanjo hopes to show that he has not lost his teeth,
remains in control and that he should not be crossed.
Turning more pessimistic, Lawal confided the President now
realized Vice President Atiku wielded more influence in the
Party than they had thought and still more than Obasanjo.
Lawal said Obasanjo remained apoplectic about the Atiku
Presidency. With the term extension dead for the present,
Obasanjo hoped for an expedient partnership with former
military head-of-state Babangida to pull Atiku out of the
race once and or all. However, Obasanjo is also not
enamored with Babangida and still has no successor in mind.
End summary.

-------------- --------------
THIRD TERM LOSS DUE TO WEAK LEADERSHIP AND FRACTURED PARTY
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Otunba Funso Lawal, Transcorp board member and
Obasanjo insider, initially told the Consul General Obasanjo
was disappointed but was also taking the loss of this third
term ambition in stride. As the conversation evolved, Lawal
portrayed Obasanjo as a hurt and angry man searching for his
bearings. Lawal said a group of Obasanjo insiders, mostly
Transcorp directors, did a "post-mortem" on the failed third
term amendment process. The third term agenda was not
originally pushed by the President, but was instead the
brainchild of Obasanjo straphangers like Greg Mbadiwe,
claimed Lawal. Over time, the President became enthralled
with the prospect of tenure extension. Since he jumped
aboard a moving third term train, he made the fatal mistake
of sticking with those who started the push. This mistake
was compounded when the unpopular Ibrahim Mantu became his
chief advocate in the Senate and Senator Mantu and the
acerbic Femi Fani-Kayode, the President's public affairs
specialist, became the chief public spokesmen for the third
term project. If more respectable figures had taken a more
active role, then Obasanjo would have had a better chance,
rued Lawal.


3. (C) However, many people in Obasanjo's employ did not
serve their boss, Lawal observed. Obasanjo's cabinet was
split over the issue, claimed Lawal, and ministers such as
Minister of Information Frank Nweke who should have openly
supported the amendment were mute, and thus passively
opposed. Still others surreptitiously undermined Obasanjo.
Obasanjo was stung that several ministers chose the sidelines
as their preferred location during the battle. In an attempt
to regain the political initiative, Obasanjo was planning a
major speech for May 29, Democracy Day. In that speech,
Obasanjo will attempt to explain his position regarding the
third term and assure Nigeria that he accepts the National
Assembly verdict, Lawal indicated. However, Obasanjo is also
contemplating a major cabinet reshuffle and might use the May
29 speech as a vehicle to announce it. Lawal predicted the
reshuffling would reward those who supported the third term
project. This has become a litmus test for Obasanjo, he
added.

--------------
A WOUNDED PRESIDENT TO PURGE THE UNFAITHFUL
--------------


4. (C) Betraying that Obasanjo had not accepted the defeat
of his post-2007 ambitions, Lawal stated Obasanjo was stunned
that PDP members in the National Assembly did not endorse
him. While they knew the battle would be tough, he did not
expect so many defectors. While implicitly acknowledging
Obasanjo's camp might have passed money, he claimed Atiku and
Babangida distributed cash to bolster anti-third term numbers
in the Assembly.


5. (C) This revolt proves how much influence Vice President
Atiku still retained in the party, continued Lawal. While
Obasanjo controlled the national executive of the PDP, Atiku
controlled the rank and file, Lawal asserted. He said
Obasanjo would attempt to use a carrot-and-stick approach to
try to gain control of the party but he feared that time was
too limited for Obasanjo. Moreover, he admitted that
Obasanjo had not yet decided on a course of action except
that he wanted to thwart Atiku.

COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) Lawal was nonplused and, to some degree, his mood
probably reflects the President's. Lawal had backed the
third term attempt and apparently never considered the severe
fall-out that would ensue should Obasanjo lose the gambit.
While he said Obasanjo now would work toward reconciliation,
the moves he described Obasanjo preparing to take spoke more
to another "r" - revenge. What was more telling was Lawal's
assertion that Obasanjo did not have a back-up plan and was
now looking for one, but for the time being Obasanjo's
lodestar was to stymie Atiku. End comment.
BROWNE