NIGERIA: HOSTAGE-TAKING, SITREP #9

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000288

SIPDIS

STATE PASS DOE FOR DAS JBRODMAN AND CGAY
TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS AND SRENENDER
COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS
STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ
STATE FOR DS/IP/AF, AF/EX, DS/IP/OPO, DS/ICI/PII, DS/DSS/ITA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2016
TAGS: EPET PGOV ASEC PTER KHLS PINR ETRD CASC NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: HOSTAGE-TAKING, SITREP #9

REF: LAGOS 287 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Acting Pol/Econ Chief Shannon Ross for Reasons 1.4 (D &
E)

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Hostage Welfare Update
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1. (C) The hostage-takers allowed a journalist to see AmCit
hostage Macon Hawkins at an undisclosed location away from
the other eight hostages. Hawkins told the journalist the
hostages were doing well and eating; Hawkins' statements
suggest he has resumed eating and drinking. He confirmed he
had received medicine for his diabetes and hypertension.
During his interview, Hawkins spoke about development and the
plight of Delta Ijaws, as did the January hostages.
(Comment: Hawkins's interaction with the journalist was
likely fully scripted. End Comment.) The journalist, whom
Shell considers a trusted source, said the captors were
divided into two groups: one well-armed and disciplined,
composed of hardened militia members from Delta, Rivers, and
Bayelsa states, directly responsible for guarding the
hostages. The second group consists of youths from the
Nkerekoko area associated with Government Ekpemukpolo, and is
less well trained, armed, and battle-hardened. (Note. For
further information on the presumed location of the hostages,
the whereabouts and demands of Government Ekpemukpolo, and
the hostage-takers' methods, see TD-314/13769-06. End Note.)


2. (C) Willbros senior management has traveled to Delta
State to meet Governor Ibori. Willbros management states
Ibori has accused them of carrying on their own negotiations
with the hostage-takers. (Comment. Ibori's accusation is
false; Shell and Willbros assess Ibori is likely blaming
Willbros for slowing his negotiations, allowing him to "save
face" and explain away his inability to so far deliver the
hostages. End Comment.) Willbros management also brought
personalized letters of support from the company to the
hostages, which will be delivered via Governor Ibori's
committee. Meanwhile, Willbros is working to obtain letters
of support from all of the families for later delivery.

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Negotiations Update
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3. (C) In a conversation with the Consul General, Timi
Alaibe, the Managing Director of the Niger Delta Development
Commission (NDDC),revealed he is in contact with the
hostage-takers. He said they had four demands: 1) a letter
from President Obasanjo guaranteeing no military reprisals;
2) the release of militant leader Dokubo Asari; 3) a formal
promise of specific development programs; and 4) jobs
providing security to the oil companies, in place of the
military, who would be removed from the creeks. Several
sources also reported negotiations are stalled on where and
to whom the hostages would be released.

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Energy Update: Shell Facilities Still Closed
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4. (C) There is no change in the status of damaged or closed
Shell facilities, and production remains reduced
approximately 550,000 bpd. Assessing the Movement for the
Emancipation of the Niger Delta's (MEND) efforts to damage
Shell, Shell reports MEND has a clear understanding of both
the company's operations and the value of various physical
assets. MEND strikes with accurate knowledge of where and
how to inflict serious damage on Shell's operations and
export capabilities; Shell does not consider MEND's choice of
targets as targets of opportunity. While MEND does not
appear to have the capability to move Delta-wide, Shell
confirms MEND consistently selects high-value targets within
its general operational area.


5. (C) Power generation remains down by approximately 850 MW
(of a total of 3200 MW nationwide) due to a damaged gas
feeder line, which cannot be repaired until the security
situation improves. The Nigerian Gas Company (NGC) reports
they are unable to make a damage assessment of the affected
pipeline, and do not expect to be able to repair it anytime
soon.
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Media Update
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6. (SBU) Leading dailies carried photos of the hostages,
prominently featuring AMCIT Macon Hawkins. Press widely
quoted a MEND statement released with the photos, including
MEND claims it is not negotiating with the GON, but rather
"this is a sick lie by politicians." The statement also
included threats to attack more oil installations without
warning, and demands to involve a third party in the
negotiations, such as the U.N., USG, or HMG. Press reported
statements by Governor Ibori that the hostage-takers' only
demand is full assurances from the GON they will not be
attacked after the release of the hostages. Finally, a
leading daily headlined with "A Week of Crises," citing fears
in the creeks, sectarian riots and deaths, and continued
unrest regarding a proposed third term for President
Obasanjo.


7. (SBU) Press widely reported the Federal High Court in
Port Harcourt, Rivers State, yesterday upheld a 2004 National
Assembly resolution ordering Shell to pay 1.5 billion USD in
environmental compensation to the Ijaw of Bayelsa State.
Shell has stated it is appealing, and is open to dialogue
with communities. (Note: This court judgment could harden
MEND's negotiating stance on demands for Shell to pay
compensation for environmental damages. End note.) The
paramount ruler of Yenagoa Local Government Area, Chief
Sasime, publicly told Shell it should pay the judgment as a
mark of respect for the Nigerian judiciary, even if it then
moves forward with an appeal. A militia spokesman, Joseph
Evah, reportedly said a Shell compensation payment would play
a key role in the release of the hostages. Press also
reported Evah's claim that the hostages are on trial before
the Egbusu gods of Ijawland.

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Consular Update
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8. (C) All Consular staff are accounted for. There have
been no reports of additional attacks on AmCits.
BROWNE