NIGERIA: HOSTAGE-TAKING, SITREP #8

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000287

SIPDIS

STATE PASS DOE FOR DAS JBRODMAN AND CGAY
TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS AND SRENENDER
COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS
STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ
STATE FOR DS/IP/AF, AF/EX, DS/IP/OPO, DS/ICI/PII, DS/DSS/ITA
LONDON PASS TO AMBASSADOR CAMPBELL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2016
TAGS: EPET PGOV ASEC PTER KHLS PINR ETRD CASC NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: HOSTAGE-TAKING, SITREP #8

REF: LAGOS 279 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reasons 1.4 (D & E)

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Hostage Welfare Update
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1. (C) Constituting the first proof of life since the crisis
began, MEND released several undated photographs of the
hostages last night. Individual photographs of each of the
hostages as well as two group photographs, one showing seven
and one showing four of the nine hostages, backed by masked
militants pointing weapons at them, were released to the
media. The militants also released statements confirming the
photographs of their "guests" pictured with some members of
the group who captured them. The statement denied
negotiations with the GON were being held.


2. (C) Shell officials had contact with a reporter they
consider an outstanding source who claimed to have visited
the kidnappers in their camp and interviewed AmCit Macon
Hawkins. Hawkins was the only hostage the reporter saw.
Hawkins confirmed he has received his medication, and he and
the other hostages are being treated well. The reporter met
with mid-level militant leaders who told him the hostages
would not be released unless POTUS guaranteed that efforts
would be taken to bring economic development to the Niger
Delta. The journalist also reported the usual collection of
arms, including general purpose machine guns, kalishnikovs,
and RPGs. (Comment: We cannot ascertain whether the
statement about US involvement has become part of the
militants' "official" demands, particularly since this does
not come from one of the top leaders. However, it probably
is representative of sentiment within the ranks of the
kidnappers to internationalize the situation due to the
profound mistrust of the GON. End comment.)


3. (C) FBI in Houston are in daily contact with AmCit
hostages' families. Willbros is working with the Thai and
Egyptian missions here to reach those hostages' families.


4. (C) Preparations are underway to send family letters and
additional medicine deliveries to the hostages over the
weekend. Willbros reports they are working to provide daily
updates to Thai and Philippine missions.

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Negotiations Update
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5. (S/NF) In a conversation today, Lagos State Governor
Tinubu said he visited former Bayelsa Governor Alamieyeseigha
to discuss the hostage crisis. Alamieyeseigha told Tinubu he
has not been in contact with the kidnappers. He agreed to
pass a message to release the hostages unharmed. With regard
to Delta Governor Ibori, Tinubu described him as scared. He
said his Delta State colleague felt caught between President
Obasanjo who strongly dislikes him, and the kidnappers who
are wary of him. In fact, Ibori will be very cautious in
striking a deal with the kidnappers, fearing that they would
retaliate against him should the GON not honor the
commitments he would have made on Abuja's behalf, according
to Tinubu. (Comment: Events have shown that, of any of the
known politicians of the Delta area, former Governor
Alamieyeseigha retains the most influence and goodwill among
the hostage-takers. While his message might not be
dispositive, a constructive message from him will be a
positive development. End comment.)


6. (C) Two Ijaw pop musicians whose uncle is an important
Ijaw spiritual figure told us they have asked their uncle to
intercede with the kidnappers for the hostages' release. The
duo claims their uncle has been talking to the kidnappers.
The pair said their uncle will not raise the issue with the
kidnappers until Monday because the militants are angry about
last week's GON attacks and unwilling to discuss compromise.


7. (C) Shell community sources report the negotiating group
has split, with the field commanders disagreeing over terms
with Government Ekpemukpolo and others in Warri conducting
negotiations with intermediaries from Delta State. Shell
claims someone "much nastier" than Ekpemukpolo is running the
field operations.

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Energy Update: Shell Facilities Still Closed
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8. (C) There is no change in the status of damaged or closed
Shell facilities, and production remains reduced
approximately 550,000 bpd. Shell received reports the Odidi
2 manifold was blown up, but no damage assessment has been
done due to the withdrawal of personnel. Odidi 2 is in the
western operations area which is already shutdown, so there
is no additional production impact.


9. (C) Power generation remains down by approximately 850 MW
(of a total of 3200 MW nationwide) due to a damaged gas
feeder line, which cannot be repaired until the security
situation improves.


10. (C) Chevron report no disruptions in production (see
para 13 about a potential threat against Chevron). Agip,
Total, Exxon, and other oil companies also report no problems.

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Military Update
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11. (S/NF) A senior GON official said President Obasanjo
told Delta Governor Ibori last Saturday (the day of the
kidnapping attack) to resolve the crisis quickly or the
military would act. The same source also said that Obasanjo
met with his senior military staff recently and said now that
the zonal constitutional conferences are over he was ready to
fix his attention on the Delta. Obasanjo purportedly said
that as early as the beginning of next week he was prepared
to make a decision on whether to take military action.
(Note: Six public townhall hearings were held this week, one
in each geographic zone, on constitutional reforms, including
an amendment allowing a third Presidential term. End note.)

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Media Update
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12. (SBU) The hostage crisis has become a magnet to groups
and individuals who would like nothing better than to
escalate tension around this matter. A heretofore unknown
Ijaw group, the Warri Ijaw Peace Monitoring Group (WIPMG),
released a statement warning the US against intervention in
the Delta. The statement said the group had proof the US was
planning to deploy Marines to assist the Nigerian military in
the Delta. (Comment: New groups are appearing and issuing
press statements with increasing frequency as the crisis
continues. That such a group would spin a tale of US
intervention out of thin air underscores the edginess that
permeates the Delta. Unfortunately, it will be believed by
many. This could complicate negotiations for the hostages'
release and also cause anti-American sentiment where before
there was none among the hostage-takers. End comment.)


13. (SBU) Media reports Ijaw leaders in Gbaramatu, near
Warri, released a statement threatening Chevron over the
termination of 12 employees for alleged participation in the
2003 Warri crisis. The statement threatened that unless the
12 were reinstated within 48 hours action would be taken
against the company's oil production capability.

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Consular Update
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14. (C) All Consular staff are accounted for. There have
been no reports of additional attacks on AmCits.
BROWNE