THE NIGER DELTA -- A WARY LULL?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001264

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SIPDIS

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DS/DSS/ITA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2016
TAGS: EPET PGOV ASEC PTER KHLS PINR ETRD CASC NI
SUBJECT: THE NIGER DELTA -- A WARY LULL?

REF: A. LAGOS 1263


B. LAGOS 1254

C. LAGOS 1249

Classified By: Consul General Brian Browne; Reasons 1.4 (D & E)


1. (C) Summary: After four incidents in Delta State, and one
in Akwa Ibom earlier in the week, there have been no militant
attacks since October 4. Shell has lost 9,000 barrels per
day of oil from the Ekaluma flow station in Rivers State
following the October 4 attack. There have been unconfirmed
reports that Joint Task Force (JTF) troops are massing on
Onne and Bonny Islands, but we do not know whether this
deployment is defensive in nature or a prelude to a more
assertive posture. The Movement for the Emancipation of the
Niger Delta (MEND) October 5 declared a unilateral
cease-fire, but said it would watch the actions of the
military and act accordingly. This past week has had two
chapters. Several days of intense encounters have been
followed by several days of tense quiet. What has been
missing in this tale, however, is a sign of dialogue between
the Government of Nigeria (GON) and the Ijaws. End Summary.

The Week in Capsule
--------------


2. (C) On October 2, the Joint Revolutionary Council (JRC),
composed of the Niger Delta Emancipation Front (NDPEF),the
Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND),and
the Martyrs Brigade (TMB),attacked the barge convoy of a
Shell contractor near Bille Creek, killing five (5) Joint
Task Force (JTF) soldiers. The contractor's twenty-five
employees, earlier reported missing, have been released.
Also on October 2, militants attacked a Shell barge near the
Sambreiro River, killing four Nigerians. On October 3, in
Akwa Ibom State, seven expatriate employees of ExxonMobil
contractors were abducted from a residential compound near
Eket. The expatriates remain in captivity. Credible proof
of life for all seven has been received.


3. (C) On October 4, in Rivers State, militants attacked a
houseboat near Ekaluma, reportedly killing nine (9) JTF
soldiers. That same day, Shell closed the Ekaluma flow
station due to damage to facility pipelines caused by the
firefight. Evidently stray fire from a GON helicopter gun
ship strafed the pipeline. Shell's Olav Lijosne (protect)
confirmed that the move reduces Shell's output by 9,000
barrels per day. Lijosne declined to predict when repairs on
the flow station could be completed, noting that the company
has suspended travel by Shell personnel in the creeks. Also
on October 4, approximately 50 miles west of the state
capital, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, militants attacked an
Agip boat, killing one Nigerian employee of the Agip
contractor.


4. (U) On October 5, MEND alleged that troops from the
military's Joint Task Force (JTF) razed Elemtombia community
in Rivers State during a retaliatory raid. MEND also claimed
it killed seventeen soldiers on October 4, a claim the
military denied. In an October 6 statement, MEND declared a
unilateral cease-fire, but announced it would continue to
watch the actions of the military and act accordingly. MEND
also boasted that it has brought several hundred Ijaw
militants into Rivers State as reinforcements against a
possible JTF offensive.


5. (C) Consulate officers have received reports of large
numbers of JTF troops gathering on Bonny and Onne Islands in
Rivers State. We do not know whether this concentration of
troops is defensive or otherwise in character. Currently,
JTF is not sending out patrols in the affected areas of River
State, which is a sign that they do not want to provoke

LAGOS 00001264 002 OF 002


further incidents. Although there have been no reports of
peace talks between the rebels and the military, President
Obasanjo reportedly met October 5 with the chiefs of the
armed services and defense intelligence agencies to insist
that they exercise restraint during the current crisis.



6. (C) Comment: According to news reports and our own
informal tally, fourteen or more JTF and have been killed by
militants during the week. This is a higher number of
military deaths than we have seen in similar incidents
earlier this year, and could, we fear, trigger retaliatory
measures by the military. We have been unable to determine
whether the increased military presence on Bonny and Onne
Islands is an attempt to defuse tensions by reducing the
military presence in the creeks, or is in preparation for a
more aggressive deployment of troops against the militants.
Although the past few days have been quiet, the area remains
tense and the likelihood of incidents in the near future is
high.
BROWNE