Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LAGOS1079
2006-08-08 06:50:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Lagos
Cable title:  

HEAD OF NORTHERN ELDERS SAYS PRESIDENCY WILL GO TO

Tags:  PREL PGOV NI 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3447
RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHOS #1079/01 2200650
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 080650Z AUG 06
FM AMCONSUL LAGOS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7755
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 7694
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001079 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: HEAD OF NORTHERN ELDERS SAYS PRESIDENCY WILL GO TO
DARKHORSE CANDIDATE


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001079

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: HEAD OF NORTHERN ELDERS SAYS PRESIDENCY WILL GO TO
DARKHORSE CANDIDATE


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. During a July 26 conversation with the Consul
General (CG),former presidential aspirant and current head
of the Northern Union, Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki, said
President Obasanjo still pined to remain in office and thus
was not sincerely shopping for a successor. In this vein,
Saraki predicted Obasanjo would go to nearly any length to
deracinate Vice-President Atiku's presidential ambitions.
Saraki foresaw the 2007 People's Democratic Party (PDP)
nomination going to a member of the northern political elite
-- a dark horse candidate without prior military experience
-- preferably Saraki himself. End Summary.

-------------- --------------
Obasanjo Seeking to Remain in Power; No Chosen Successor
-------------- --------------


2. (C) During a July 26 conversation with us, Olusola Saraki
described President Obasanjo as not genuinely interested in
finding a successor. Rather, the usually decisive Obasanjo
was being purposefully dilatory in selecting a successor.
Obasanjo wanted the situation to remain fluid in hopes that
things would ultimately congeal in his favor, i.e. to allow
him to extend his tenure, opined Saraki. Obasanjo was
awaiting the opportune moment to call a state of emergency,
or otherwise cancel elections to extend his stay in the
Presidential Villa, warned Saraki.


3. (C) Saraki considered Obasanjo's continued obsession with
remaining in power as counterproductive folly. The more
Obasanjo struggled, the farther he would stink politically,
thus lessening his ability to influence the inevitable -- the
naming of a successor. Saraki predicted Obasanjo's successor
would be a dark horse candidate from the North with no prior
military background. In Saraki's view, Ibrahim Babangida
(IBB),Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, Muhammadu Buhari, and Buba Marwa
were bete noire. When asked about potential State Governors
that Obasanjo would endorse, Saraki said Obasanjo told him
"the state governors have failed him," and Obasanjo could
only trust five governors: Kwara Governor Saraki (the
Doctor's son),Cross Rivers Governor Duke, Ogun Governor
Daniel, Rivers Governor Odili, and surprisingly Imo Governor
Udenwa. Saraki asserted his own son was too inexperienced to
contest for the Presidency, and the other four could not get
the blessing of northern leaders to take the Presidency.


4. (C) As for Vice-Presidential candidates, Saraki thought
the likely candidate would come from the Southeast. He
claimed the South-South was too divided and too ethnically
heterogenous to produce a Vice-Presidential candidate, while
the Igbo's would support en masse one of their own from the
Southeast.

--------------
PDP in Disarray; UDA To Challenge Obasanjo
--------------


5. (C) In a conversation with the President during Obasanjo's
recent visit to Kwara State, Saraki cautioned the President
to unite the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and country by
supporting a northern candidate. He told Obasanjo that PDP
National Chairman Ahmadu Ali's vitriolic statements were
undermining PDP reconciliation efforts, and it behooved the
President to remove Ali.


6. (C) Some opposition candidates planned to coalesce under
the banner of a new political party, the United Democratic
Alliance (UDA),which Saraki said would register in coming
weeks. According to him, Atiku, Lagos Governor Tinubu, and
possibly IBB might join hands under the UDA, but Buhari has
backed out. Saraki did not believe, however, the UDA would
succeed because it would not have the backing of the core
Northern establishment and because Obasanjo was already
clipping the financial wings of VP Atiku.

--------------
Obasanjo Using Transcorp to Push His Agenda
--------------


7. (C) Saraki lamented Obasanjo's inability to unite the
country, and his failure to focus on social and economic
issues. He knocked Transnational Corporation of Nigeria
(Transcorp) for being an artifice to enrich Obasanjo. Saraki
claimed Obasanjo, through numerous proxies, owned a majority
stake in Transcorp.


LAGOS 00001079 002 OF 002


--------------
Comment
--------------


8. (C) As head of the Northern Union, Saraki is an old school
northern politician seeking to return national political
power to a member of this club. In other words, he wants to
put new wine in an old bottle. His Northern Union is just one
of the many regional/ethnic political groupings trying to put
their mark on the 2007 election. Most of these affiliations
are parochial and unimaginative in their outlook. If Saraki
epitomizes the Union, then it unfortunately is not an
exception to the above mentioned generality about regional
groupings. End comment.
BROWNE