Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LAGOS1036
2006-07-27 14:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Lagos
Cable title:
SENATE PRESIDENT FORESEES DELAYED ELECTIONS
how-toVZCZCXRO3056 RR RUEHPA DE RUEHOS #1036/01 2081458 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 271458Z JUL 06 FM AMCONSUL LAGOS TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7695 INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 7644 RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC RUEAHLC/HOMELAND SECURITY CENTER WASHINGTON DC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH AFB UK RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001036
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: SENATE PRESIDENT FORESEES DELAYED ELECTIONS
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B) and (
D)
-------
SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001036
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: SENATE PRESIDENT FORESEES DELAYED ELECTIONS
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B) and (
D)
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) In a July 13 conversation with the Consul General,
Senate President Ken Nnamani claimed he diplomatically
resisted pressure to facilitate President Obasanjo's push for
a third-term. Considering President Obasanjo's tenure
extension diathesis, the Independent National Electoral
Commission's (INEC) lack of momentum, People's Democratic
Party (PDP) disarray, and unrest in the Niger Delta, Nnamani
foresees some or all of these reasons converging to delay
elections, thus indirectly giving Obasanjo what he
craves--additional time in office. Saying he consults with
Obasanjo regularly, Nnamani avouched he will recommend to
President Obasanjo the Federal Government marshal
developmental resources to defuse Delta unrest. Lastly, the
Senate President expressed concern over Chris Uba's violent
activities in Anambra State, and his efforts to undermine
Governor Obi. END SUMMARY.
-------------- -
Nnamani Heavily Pressured to Support 3rd term
-------------- -
2. (C) In a July 13 discussion with the Consul General,
Senate President Nnamani (PDP-Enugu) said he was offered a
large sum of naira and even an oil block to navigate
President Obasanjo's third term bid through the Senate. In
exchange for these emoluments, Nnamani would have to forego
on the vote count in the Senate and use his position to
announce an affirmative decision after a voice vote. The
Presidency was pushing him to conduct in decretal form what
was inherently a legislative function, thus subverting the
Senate as an institution, Nnamani expounded. Despite these
offers and pressure from the Presidency to eject journalists
from covering Senate deliberations on the third term, Nnamani
refused. Nnamani said he explained to the President and his
votaries that he did not object to their goals but that he
could not unilaterally decide on a voice vote nor evict the
media. If so, his Senate member colleagues would perceive
such actions as an arrogation of power. Not only would they
seek to upbraid him, their negative reaction would also
incline them against the President's tactic and the ultimate
objective of passing the amendment. Nnamani said he
sidestepped the President's overtures for a voice vote and
media ejection by stating he would back them if another
Senator would successfully move both topics for consideration
by the whole chamber. Because he knew both measures were so
unpopular that no Senator would deign to utter such a motion,
he knew he had successfully killed both measures without
having openly opposed the President, Nnamani chuckled.
3. (C) After the crash and burn of the third term, Obasanjo
realized he had been poorly served by his political advisors,
Nnamani claimed. Now, Obasanjo was more amenable to listen
to advice from independent voices like Nnamani, who claimed
that, throughout the amendment saga, he told Obasanjo that
the amendment lacked sufficient support to carry.
-------------- --------------
Obasanjo not ready to depart office; PDP Kept in Disarray
-------------- --------------
4. (C) According to Nnamani, tenure extension is Obasanjo's
ide fixe. With the constitutional amendment for now
garroted, Obasanjo is looking to less direct means to remain
in office beyond May 29, 2007. One plausible avenue remains
through a delayed or bungled election process. Nnamani
considers the general disarray surrounding the 2007
Presidential and state elections as indicative of Obasanjo's
machinations to extend his term. Nnamani pointed out INEC is
much farther behind now than it was at the comparable point
in the 2003 electoral season. Despite the President
allegedly having signed the election bill weeks ago, Nnamani
said the Presidency has failed to return the law for final
publication. By not returning the signed law, the President
is delaying INEC's preparations for the election as no funds
LAGOS 00001036 002 OF 002
can be allocated to INEC until the law is published. Nnamani
views rancorous PDP in-fighting at both national and state
levels as compounding the electoral disarray. Despite these
observations, Nnamani offered no additional insight into
possible regrouping or fractioning of the PDP.
5. (C) Nnamani stated instability in the Niger Delta region
could also allow Obasanjo to push or extend his Presidency.
Nnamani feared elections would not be held on schedule if the
Delta states or any significant part thereof were enmeshed in
civil turmoil. To forestall such turmoil, he would recommend
to Obasanjo that the Federal Government marshal resources in
the Delta region to initiate short-term development projects
to mollify the militant groups during the election season.
--------------
Anambra in a Downward spiral?
--------------
5. (C) According to Nnamani, violence in Anambra is the
handiwork of PDP Chieftain Chris Uba. Uba is backing
militias and unions to undermine and discredit Anambra State
Governor Obi. Influence with President Obasanjo has
emboldened Uba to believe he can misbehave with impunity in
the state, Nnamani decried. Finally, Nnamani considered Uba
a greater menace than just to Anambra. Uba is on a track to
implant his cronies in office throughout the South-East. If
he succeeded, this would effect a severe diminution in Igbo
politics and the governance of the South-East, warned
Nnamani.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
6. (C) Nnamani's supposition that Obasanjo is still fixed
on extending his hold on the Presidency has merit and is
being echoed by many Nigerians. Nnamani is in no hurry to
see Obasanjo stay. He must know that Obasanjo does not
consider him an ally and Obasanjo has made political
mince-meat out of Nnamni's predecessors once they fell from
Presidential grace. Ironically, because of his role in the
third term saga, Nnamani's standing among Obasanjo's
opponents has appreciated. His name is now being mentioned
as a Vice Presidential possibility. Although he might not
have instigated it, this talk will place him further at odds
with the President. END COMMENT.
BROWNE
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: SENATE PRESIDENT FORESEES DELAYED ELECTIONS
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B) and (
D)
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) In a July 13 conversation with the Consul General,
Senate President Ken Nnamani claimed he diplomatically
resisted pressure to facilitate President Obasanjo's push for
a third-term. Considering President Obasanjo's tenure
extension diathesis, the Independent National Electoral
Commission's (INEC) lack of momentum, People's Democratic
Party (PDP) disarray, and unrest in the Niger Delta, Nnamani
foresees some or all of these reasons converging to delay
elections, thus indirectly giving Obasanjo what he
craves--additional time in office. Saying he consults with
Obasanjo regularly, Nnamani avouched he will recommend to
President Obasanjo the Federal Government marshal
developmental resources to defuse Delta unrest. Lastly, the
Senate President expressed concern over Chris Uba's violent
activities in Anambra State, and his efforts to undermine
Governor Obi. END SUMMARY.
-------------- -
Nnamani Heavily Pressured to Support 3rd term
-------------- -
2. (C) In a July 13 discussion with the Consul General,
Senate President Nnamani (PDP-Enugu) said he was offered a
large sum of naira and even an oil block to navigate
President Obasanjo's third term bid through the Senate. In
exchange for these emoluments, Nnamani would have to forego
on the vote count in the Senate and use his position to
announce an affirmative decision after a voice vote. The
Presidency was pushing him to conduct in decretal form what
was inherently a legislative function, thus subverting the
Senate as an institution, Nnamani expounded. Despite these
offers and pressure from the Presidency to eject journalists
from covering Senate deliberations on the third term, Nnamani
refused. Nnamani said he explained to the President and his
votaries that he did not object to their goals but that he
could not unilaterally decide on a voice vote nor evict the
media. If so, his Senate member colleagues would perceive
such actions as an arrogation of power. Not only would they
seek to upbraid him, their negative reaction would also
incline them against the President's tactic and the ultimate
objective of passing the amendment. Nnamani said he
sidestepped the President's overtures for a voice vote and
media ejection by stating he would back them if another
Senator would successfully move both topics for consideration
by the whole chamber. Because he knew both measures were so
unpopular that no Senator would deign to utter such a motion,
he knew he had successfully killed both measures without
having openly opposed the President, Nnamani chuckled.
3. (C) After the crash and burn of the third term, Obasanjo
realized he had been poorly served by his political advisors,
Nnamani claimed. Now, Obasanjo was more amenable to listen
to advice from independent voices like Nnamani, who claimed
that, throughout the amendment saga, he told Obasanjo that
the amendment lacked sufficient support to carry.
-------------- --------------
Obasanjo not ready to depart office; PDP Kept in Disarray
-------------- --------------
4. (C) According to Nnamani, tenure extension is Obasanjo's
ide fixe. With the constitutional amendment for now
garroted, Obasanjo is looking to less direct means to remain
in office beyond May 29, 2007. One plausible avenue remains
through a delayed or bungled election process. Nnamani
considers the general disarray surrounding the 2007
Presidential and state elections as indicative of Obasanjo's
machinations to extend his term. Nnamani pointed out INEC is
much farther behind now than it was at the comparable point
in the 2003 electoral season. Despite the President
allegedly having signed the election bill weeks ago, Nnamani
said the Presidency has failed to return the law for final
publication. By not returning the signed law, the President
is delaying INEC's preparations for the election as no funds
LAGOS 00001036 002 OF 002
can be allocated to INEC until the law is published. Nnamani
views rancorous PDP in-fighting at both national and state
levels as compounding the electoral disarray. Despite these
observations, Nnamani offered no additional insight into
possible regrouping or fractioning of the PDP.
5. (C) Nnamani stated instability in the Niger Delta region
could also allow Obasanjo to push or extend his Presidency.
Nnamani feared elections would not be held on schedule if the
Delta states or any significant part thereof were enmeshed in
civil turmoil. To forestall such turmoil, he would recommend
to Obasanjo that the Federal Government marshal resources in
the Delta region to initiate short-term development projects
to mollify the militant groups during the election season.
--------------
Anambra in a Downward spiral?
--------------
5. (C) According to Nnamani, violence in Anambra is the
handiwork of PDP Chieftain Chris Uba. Uba is backing
militias and unions to undermine and discredit Anambra State
Governor Obi. Influence with President Obasanjo has
emboldened Uba to believe he can misbehave with impunity in
the state, Nnamani decried. Finally, Nnamani considered Uba
a greater menace than just to Anambra. Uba is on a track to
implant his cronies in office throughout the South-East. If
he succeeded, this would effect a severe diminution in Igbo
politics and the governance of the South-East, warned
Nnamani.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
6. (C) Nnamani's supposition that Obasanjo is still fixed
on extending his hold on the Presidency has merit and is
being echoed by many Nigerians. Nnamani is in no hurry to
see Obasanjo stay. He must know that Obasanjo does not
consider him an ally and Obasanjo has made political
mince-meat out of Nnamni's predecessors once they fell from
Presidential grace. Ironically, because of his role in the
third term saga, Nnamani's standing among Obasanjo's
opponents has appreciated. His name is now being mentioned
as a Vice Presidential possibility. Although he might not
have instigated it, this talk will place him further at odds
with the President. END COMMENT.
BROWNE