CHIEF HORSFALL SAYS OBASANJO INATTENTIVE TO THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001001

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL EPET EAID NI
SUBJECT: CHIEF HORSFALL SAYS OBASANJO INATTENTIVE TO THE
DELTA


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Chief Albert Horsfall, recently named by President
Obasanjo as Honorary Advisor to the President on Social and
Economic Development of the Coastal States of the Niger
Delta, told the Consul General short-term results and a
long-term comprehensive plan are needed to stave additional
unrest in the Delta. However, he did not believe that
President Obasanjo was adequately focused on the Delta.
Horsfall revealed that Obasanjo had not funded the new
Commission nor had the President earmarked funds for
short-term projects in the Delta. Given these limitations,
Horsfall said his primary objective was to draft a long-term
strategy for dealing with the Delta and pine that a successor
would implement it. Hoping to be that successor, Horsfall
said he would run for the presidency next year. End summary.

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IMMEDIATE ACTION NEEDED TO HEAD-OFF FURTHER DELTA UNREST
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2. (C) During a July 9 conversation, Chief Albert Horsfall,
Honorary Advisor to the President on Social and Economic
Development of the Coastal States of the Niger Delta,
expounded that the GON needed to develop a two-part approach
to ameliorating conditions in the Delta. First, in order to
mollify the young militants and thus dissuade them from
further disruptive activity, the GON needed to establish some
short-term development projects. These projects should begin
within the next six months and seek to employ militant
youths, he declared. Such projects would have an irenic
effect by giving the local populace hope of better things to
come and by showing the militants that their hue and cry,
although rendered in criminal timbre, was heard and acted
upon by the GON.


3. (C) As the short-term approach would be used to stem a
sudden eruption, a longer-term strategy was needed to restore
the Delta's underlying problems. However, for want of time,
funds, inclination and talent, the present administration
would not be able to launch the long-term master strategy,
Horsfall forecasted


4. (C) Continuing in this vein, Horsfall dismissed claims
that he was appointed to lead the committee because he was
President Obasanjo's "man." Horsfall recounted that he
learned of his appointment over the radio. Since then,
contact with Obasanjo had been minimal and funding for the
new body was less than that. Horsfall described Obasanjo's
grandiloquent press comments about a "Marshall Plan" for the
Delta as pabulum. Horsfall concluded that Obasanjo had
little in store for the Delta with regard to a new
development strategy. Obasanjo's tack was to stand tall
publicly but to shrink into his customary miserliness when it
came to funding.


5. (C) Horsfall asserted that, after being appointed to
this job, he was determined to do the best he could
notwithstanding anemic support from Obasanjo. However,
Horsfall stated he realized his restrictions. Thus, he held
no hope of spurring the GON to place a significant number of
short-term pressure-alleviating projects on the ground.
Instead, his focus was to bring stakeholders together to
craft a comprehensive master strategy for development in the
Delta. His prior meeting with various stakeholders (oil
companies, government, NDDC, NGOs, etc.) demonstrated the
lack of coordination. In one local area, everyone was doing
the same thing while other locales went unassisted. He
decried the lack of rhyme and reason in some of these
development programs. Thus he saw as his primary role the
drafting of this master plan. He hoped to be able to present
this plan to President Obasanjo in a few months. His desire
was not for Obasanjo to begin implementation but to endorse
it and bequeath it to his successor so that it would be the
foundation for the next administration's Delta policy.


6. (C) After outlining his plans to address the Niger
Delta, Horsfall asked the Consul General how the USG could
help. Consul General replied that one thing Horsfall or the
GON should not expect was funding. Nigeria had sufficient
money to resolve this problem. The CG stated the USG did
support a nonviolent resolution to the Delta's problems. In
this vein, the CG explained that we might explore the
possibility of providing technical assistance to well-defined

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projects that would actually address youth restiveness and
unemployment in the Delta. However, the provision of any
such assistance would only come at the end of a gradual
process and based on an assessment of GON seriousness and
possible effectiveness. For now, we would take the role of
benign observers of the conflict resolution process. In
response, Chief Horsfall said a letter inviting the Mission
to observe Delta commission deliberations would be forwarded
shortly.

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HORSFALL TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT
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7. (C) Chief Horsfall claimed he is "not yet a politician,"
but conceded the truth behind recent press claims he would
run for President, saying "I will probably have to do that."
Horsfall claimed that supporters in his native South-South
zone were badgering him to toss his hat into the ring.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) While Chief Horsfall sounds sincere in his desire to
improve conditions in the Delta region, he lacks a successful
track record. He presided over the failed Oil Mineral
Producing Areas Development Commission (OMPADEC),the NDDC's
predecessor. While appearing very deliberate and thoughtful,
Horsfall was guilty of several lacunae.


9. (C) First, he claimed that a short-term fix was needed
to prevent ructions in the Delta, yet focus was a long-term
strategy. Second, he claimed little confidence in Obasanjo
but accepted this seemingly important role from Obasanjo
which means he could be scapegoated if the Commission proves
ineffective in dousing militant ardor. Third, he claimed to
believe that Obasanjo, as outgoing President, could somehow
commit a successor administration to Horsfall's master plan
while also deriding Obasanjo's attempt to choose a successor.
Fourth, he claimed that his objective was to craft a master
plan - not implement it - yet he still canvassed for USG
material support for implementation of projects that do not
yet exist. Last, he did not think his presidential ambition
would affect his role and work on the Commission or how
President Obasanjo and others would view him.


10. (C) This is our first go-round with Horsfall; he might
have purposely dissembled to get our reaction to certain
statements or perhaps he was stating what he thought we
wanted to hear. Alternatively, he could have been giving us
unadulterated Horsfall. If so, he is outwardly affable, and
if you just examine each of his positions in isolation from
the others, he seems a reasonable person. However, when
viewed in their totality, his thoughts reveal a lack of the
depth and coherence needed to help pull the Delta out of its
current turbidity. End comment.
BROWNE