EBONYI STATE GOVERNOR SAYS PRESIDENCY WILL GO NORTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001000

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: EBONYI STATE GOVERNOR SAYS PRESIDENCY WILL GO NORTH

REF: LAGOS 935

Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D).


1. (C) Summary: During a June 25 meeting, Ebonyi State
Governor Sam Egwu told the Consul General that the Presidency
should go to a Northerner, with the Vice Presidency to an
Igbo Southeasterner. Egwu sensed that, through a process of
elimination of the more vocal and also more contentious Igbo
candidates, he could emerge as the People's Democratic Party
(PDP) Vice Presidential candidate in 2007. For now, his task
was to tarry patiently in hopes the more aggressive
candidates cannibalize each other. End summary.

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EGWU SEEKING VP CANDIDACY; BELIEVES
PRESIDENCY WILL GO NORTH
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2. (C) In a June 25 discussion with the Consul General, a
relaxed Ebonyi State Governor Sam Egwu gauged that he had a
good change of winning the PDP Vice Presidential nomination
in 2007. Professing not to be obsessed with higher office,
Egwu stated he would not actively campaign for the slot.
Instead, he would initially watch the unfolding drama,
expecting the crop of candidates to attenuate as time
progresses. Once the field became less crowded, he would
then decide whether to plant the seeds of his candidacy. As
to the agitation from many Southeastern Nigerians for an Igbo
president, Egwu called that objection a pipe dream. For
stability's sake, he felt the Presidency should return North
in 2007. Moreover, the rest of Nigeria was not yet ready for
an Igbo Chief Magistrate nor was the South-South sufficiently
united to produce a consensus regional candidate, opined Egwu.


3. (C) Consequently, Egwu predicted the Presidency will go to
the North, the Vice Presidency will go to an Igbo candidate
from the Southeast, and the South-South would be offered a
greater slice of the pie of oil derivation revenues.

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EGWU IS POPULAR AMONG SOUTHEAST GOVERNORS
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4. (C) Assessing the possible Vice Presidential chances of
his fellow Southeastern governors, Egwu cited Enugu State
Governor Chimaroke Nnamani as the only governor in the zone
with a solid record of achievement. However, he called
Nnamani an autocrat who brooks no dissent. Thus, he has made
unnecessary political enemies. Additionally, Nnamani was on
thin ice with President Obasanjo due to Nnamani having been a
little too boisterous in voicing his own ambition to people
who relayed these Nnamani indiscretions to the President.
Egwu stated that Kalu of Abia State and Udenwa of Imo State
were out of consideration within the PDP because of the
former's anti-Obasanjo paroxysms and the latter's more
temperate yet noticeable pro-Atiku inclinations.

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RECONCILIATION EFFORTS IN EBONYI FAIL
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5. (C) Anambra State Special Adviser to the Governor Onyiba
Ajanwachukwu said reconciliation efforts to mend divisions
within the state PDP chapter failed in Ebonyi because the
members of the reconciliation committee sent from Abuja were
themselves partisan, aiming to lift one faction in the State
over the other. In particular, reconciliation committee
members seemed enthralled by former Minister of Culture Frank
Ogbuewu who was being touted by Anambra State strongmen and
Presidential insider, Chris Uba, as Ebonyi's next Governor in

2007. Ajanwachukwu, however, claimed that despite the
backing from Uba and possibly Abuja, Ogbuewu was not very
popular and does not have the local support to dictate to
Egwu's faction who should be the State's next governor.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) With the demise of the third term, the political
firmament has been tossed into disarray. New constellations
will emerge. While Egwu knows his star may not be the
brightest, he sees it as steady and one that will be well
positioned once things begin to settle down. If the PDP Vice
Presidency is earmarked for the Southeast and if Obasanjo has
a major role in selecting that ticket, Egwu has a good shot
at the nomination. However, he will have to perform a
balancing act. He wants to maintain control of his state,

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but Anambra strongman Chris Uba is flexing his muscle and
wants to encroach into Egwu's backyard. Through his brother
Andy, Chris has influence with the President. Should Egwu
not be able to finesse his dealings with Uba in Ebonyi, Uba
could become what Egwu has thus far avoided - the major
political opponent whose connection to the President could
poison the mention of Egwu's name in the President's ear.
End comment
BROWNE