UKRAINE: LITHUANIAN MFA U/S PAVILIONIS AND A/S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 004305

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV BO UP RS GG TU PL LH
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: LITHUANIAN MFA U/S PAVILIONIS AND A/S
FRIED DISCUSS REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS


Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (SBU) Summary: Lithuanian MFA Under Secretary Zygimantas
Pavilionis and A/S Fried discussed developments in the region
and measures needed to address recent Russian assertiveness.
Paviolionis said that the Lithuanian, Polish, and Ukrainian
Presidents formed an effective "troika" in working together
for common goals. He was pessimistic about prospects for
change in Belarus, concerned about Moldovan "irrationality."
A/S Fried suggested Lithuania and other Baltic states could
provide useful perspective and support to Georgia, which
would face years of pressure from Russia. End Summary

Poland
--------------


2. (SBU) Pavilionis said there was excellent chemistry
between Presidents Kaczynski, Adamkus, and Yushchenko, who
formed a "troika." Pavilionis was optimistic about
Lithuanian cooperation with Poland in the energy sector,
despite Russian meddling. He complained that Russia had
tried to destroy the deal to sell the Mazeikiu Nafta oil
refinery to Polish firm PKN Orlen. Pavilionis looked forward
to Polish cooperation in construction of a new nuclear power
plant and access to a planned Polish LNG terminal.


3. (C) Pavilionis expressed frustration, however, by Polish
positions in the EU regarding Russia. Poland was "blocking
everything," while the "Russians are laughing." As Poland
finds itself isolated in the EU, the Russians are
accomplishing what they want through bilateral agreements
with EU member states. Pavilionis said that while Vilnius
was in agreement with Poland on substantive issues, it had
urged Warsaw to behave more effectively, building a coalition
within the EU instead of isolated blockage.


4. (C) Pavilionis characterized the Polish floated idea of
imposing sanctions on Belarus as a manifestation of a Polish
tendency to solve its internal political problems by fighting
with its neighbors. He predicted that this idea would be
dropped after the Polish municipal elections.

Belarus
--------------


5. (C) Pavilionis was pessimistic about the prospects of a
change in attitude on the part of the Belarusian government.
He noted that there had been recent suggestions that Minsk
would like Vilnius to "lead us to Europe." However the
Belarusian government had not taken any steps, even symbolic,
to demonstrate that they were serious. He mentioned that
several Lithuanian diplomats faced criminal charges in
Belarus; he was disappointed that they not been dropped.

Transnistria - Moldova
--------------


6. (C) Pavilionis suggested that the Moldavians were so
scared that they could "become irrational." Pavilionis was
interested in recent Russian suggestions, recounted by A/S
Fried, that they considered Transnistria the "frozen
conflict" with the best prospects for a solution. Lithuania
was interested in establishing a multinational peace-keeping
force, possibly under the auspices of the OSCE. Pavilionis
suggested a meeting on December 4 in Brussels on the margins
of the OSCE Ministerial.

Georgian Crisis
--------------


7. (C) A/S Fried told Pavilionis that the Russians were "not
in a good place" vis-a-vis Georgia, that they "love a
continuing crisis" but "do not want war." A/S Fried also
said that Georgia needed a group of nations that would
support its strategic aims as Georgia will face years of
pressure from the Russians. The Baltic States had been in a
similar situation in the 1990s and could provide useful
advice and support to the Georgian government. Pavilionis
noted that Lithuania will push for free trade between Georgia
and the EU and with Turkey.

Turkey
--------------


8. (C) A/S Fried remarked that the Turks are reluctant to
challenge Russia on Georgia, but should realize that
their prospects of becoming a regional energy hub would be
thwarted if Georgia fell under Russian sway. Pavilionis
asked how to prevent a "train wreck" between Turkey and the
EU in December. A/S Fried told him that the U.S.
had been approached by the Finns and was willing to work with

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the Turks when the time was right.

Adamkus' POTUS Meeting Request
--------------


9. (C) Pavilionis asked about the prospects of a meeting
between President Bush and Lithuanian President Adamkus
when the latter visits the U.S. in February 2007. A/S Fried
responded that the NSC has the request under consideration.


10. (U) A/S Fried has cleared this cable.


11. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor