Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KUWAIT97
2006-01-15 13:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kuwait
Cable title:  

AMIR'S DEATH: THE POLITICAL FALLOUT

Tags:  PGOV PREL KU SUCCESSION 
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VZCZCXRO2321
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHMOS
DE RUEHKU #0097/01 0151356
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 151356Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2480
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000097 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KU SUCCESSION
SUBJECT: AMIR'S DEATH: THE POLITICAL FALLOUT

REF: A. KUWAIT 93

B. 05 KUWAIT 4933

C. 05 KUWAIT 4372

D. 04 KUWAIT 3580

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000097

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KU SUCCESSION
SUBJECT: AMIR'S DEATH: THE POLITICAL FALLOUT

REF: A. KUWAIT 93

B. 05 KUWAIT 4933

C. 05 KUWAIT 4372

D. 04 KUWAIT 3580

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary and comment: The Amir's death on January 15
(ref A) was widely expected in Kuwait and is unlikely to have
a significant impact on the country's political/economic
direction or U.S.-Kuwaiti relations. As per the succession
law, Crown Prince Shaykh Saad Al-Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah,
himself in very poor health, was automatically proclaimed the
next Amir by the Council of Ministers. However, Prime
Minister Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, the de
facto ruler of Kuwait since 2001, will continue to direct
government policy for the foreseeable future. Some observers
speculate that Shaykh Saad will abdicate the amirship to the
Prime Minister in the coming weeks, formalizing Shaykh
Sabah's political power. Given Shaykh Sabah's careful
approach to succession issues, we do not predict that he will
push for the Amir position in the near term. While the Amiri
succession is unlikely to affect the distribution of power at
the top, it could have a significant impact on the
second-tier of Kuwaiti leaders in the appointments of a new
Crown Prince and Prime Minister and a possible redistribution
of ministerial portfolios. While the ultimate impact of the
succession on Cabinet posts will depend on the people chosen
to fill the vacant positions, post does not anticipate any
scenario that would significantly affect U.S.-Kuwaiti
relations. End summary and comment.

The Next Amir?
--------------


2. (C) The death of Shaykh Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah,
Amir of Kuwait since 1977, on January 15 was widely
anticipated and is unlikely to have a major impact on the
country's internal affairs, its external relations, or U.S.
interests. Crown Prince Shaykh Saad Al-Abdullah Al-Salem
Al-Sabah, who suffers from serious health problems himself,
automatically became the next Amir as per the 1964 succession
law. (Comment: In a recent meeting with former President
George Bush, the Crown Prince was unable to speak, although

he seemed cognizant of the President's presence, and was only
able to stand with the support of his son and an aide. The
Crown Prince suffered brain damage from excessive
hemorrhaging brought on by colon disease in 2001. End
comment.) Due to the Crown Prince's health condition, many
embassy contacts predict Shaykh Saad will abdicate the
amirship in favor of Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah in the
coming weeks, if not sooner. However, Shaykh Sabah has been
loathe to push for changes at the top. He has told an
interviewer that there is no Kuwaiti tradition of "former"
rulers and he appears comfortable exerting effective control,
at least until now.

Impact of Succession on Ministerial Portfolios
-------------- -


3. (C) While the Amiri succession is unlikely to
significantly affect power at the top, it is expected to have
a greater impact on the distribution of power in the Council
of Ministers for two reasons. First, if Shaykh Saad
abdicates in favor of Shaykh Sabah, the positions of both the
Crown Prince and the Prime Minister would need to be filled.
Since the leading candidates for the positions are currently
top ministers, any appointment would necessitate replacing at
least one minister and could result in a shift in ministerial
portfolios. (Note: It is possible that the two positions,
separated in 2003, will be reunited and given to one person.
End note.)


4. (C) It is unclear, however, who might fill these
positions, which may militate for Shaykh Sabah to continue to
serve as PM even if named Crown Prince. The amirship has
traditionally alternated between the Jaber and Salem branches
of the Al-Sabah family; however, some contacts suggest this
is merely an historical coincidence. There are, in fact, few
potential candidates for either position from the Salem
branch, although Foreign Minister Shaykh Dr. Mohammed
Al-Salem Al-Sabah, who has a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard
University, is a notable exception. Shaykh Dr. Mohammed, the
leading figure among the younger generation of Al-Sabah, is
considered by many to have the experience and vision
necessary to lead Kuwait in the twenty-first century. One
other (unlikely) candidate from the Salem branch is Shaykh
Ali Salem Al-Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah, the son of National Guard
Chief Shaykh Salem Al-Ali and a former Minister of
Communications and Minister of Finance; he does not currently
hold a government position.

KUWAIT 00000097 002 OF 002




5. (C) The other leading candidates for the positions of
Crown Prince and Prime Minister are from the Ahmed line of
the Jaber branch. One candidate is First Deputy Prime
Minister and Minister of Interior Shaykh Nawaf Al-Ahmed
Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, though Dr. Ismail Al-Shatti (strictly
protect),a former MP and an astute political analyst, told
Polfoff recently that Shaykh Nawaf was "weak" and was "not a
decision maker." Al-Shatti noted, however, that Shaykh Nawaf
would be acceptable to the Salem branch due to his close
relationship with Shaykh Saad. Another candidate is Deputy
Chief of the National Guard Shaykh Mishal Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber
Al-Sabah, who Al-Shatti said would in any case be "the real
strong man" behind Shaykh Nawaf if the latter was appointed
to either position. Energy Minister Shaykh Ahmed Al-Fahd
Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah is also rumored to be a potential
candidate. Shaykh Ahmed has expended considerable effort to
build support both within the ruling family and among Kuwaiti
society more broadly; however, at 42, many consider him too
young for either position. Some contacts also question his
commitment to reform and note that he has been implicated in
several corruption scandals.


6. (C) The second reason ministerial portfolios could be
affected by the Amiri succession is that the Salem branch may
use Shaykh Saad's abdication as a bargaining chip in
intra-family negotiations over the future distribution of
power. Shaykh Salem Al-Ali, the leading Salem branch family
member who provoked a public controversy and indirectly
criticized the Prime Minister by calling for the creation of
a three-member committee to "assist the leadership" with
ruling the country (ref C),has long voiced the Salems'
opposition to the Jabers' consolidation of political power.
(Note: Four of the sixteen Cabinet positions are currently
held by Jabers, while only one is held by a Salem. End
note.) Shaykh Salem Al-Ali and other leading Salems are
unlikely to quietly acquiesce to Shaykh Saad's abdication
without getting something - most likely ministerial
portfolios - in return.

Impact on U.S. Interests
--------------


7. (C) The Amir's death is unlikely to significantly affect
U.S. interests in Kuwait or U.S.-Kuwaiti bilateral relations.
Even if Shaykh Saad remains as Amir for an extended period
of time, Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah will continue to direct
the Government of Kuwait's policy on important issues. Even
a shift in key ministerial portfolios is unlikely to have a
major impact on Kuwait's commitment to the primacy of its
relationship with the U.S.

Kuwaitis Mourn for Honored Amir
--------------


8. (SBU) Shaykh Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, Amir of
Kuwait for nearly 28 years, led the country through some of
its most tumultuous periods, including the Iraqi invasion of
Kuwait in August 1990. He also presided over an
unprecedented period of economic prosperity, which
contributed to Kuwait's emergence as a regional economic
player. His foresight in investing oil revenues in the
unique Fund for Future Generations proved critical in his
efforts to garner international support for the liberation of
Kuwait from Iraqi occupation in 1991. Shaykh Jaber was also
a strong supporter of women's suffrage legislation, which he
introduced by amiri decree to the National Assembly in 1999;
initially rejected by Parliament, women were finally given
full political rights in May 2005.


9. (SBU) Shaykh Jaber reportedly married more than 30 times
and has an estimated - sources differ - 23 sons and 15
daughters. He was born in 1928. Kuwaiti contacts remember
him fondly as a good Amir who led Kuwait through times of
both feast and famine. Although his death is not unexpected,
Kuwaitis we have spoken with today are deeply saddened and
moved by the loss of a ruler widely loved and honored for his
generosity and humility.

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LeBaron