FREEDOM AGENDA - ELECTORAL REFORM PART II OF III:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000892

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV KU FREEDOM AGENDA NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA - ELECTORAL REFORM PART II OF III:
WHO SUPPORTS AND WHO OPPOSES THE REDUCTION?

REF: A. KUWAIT (PART I)

B. KUWAIT 656

C. KUWAIT 636 AND PREVIOUS

D. 05 KUWAIT 5186

Classified By: DCM Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Summary and comment: This is the second in a series
of three cables on electoral reform in Kuwait. A majority of
Kuwaitis support reducing the number of electoral districts
from the current 25 to 10, or fewer; however, there is still
an influential minority opposing the reform. The most vocal
opponents of the reform have been members of Parliament's
Independent Bloc, a coalition of 18 pro-Government, "service
deputy" MPs who are unlikely to be re-elected if the reform
is passed. Some also question the Government's support for
the reform: despite its public and private support for ten
constituencies (refs A and C),many contacts report that
several influential ministers and members of the ruling
family are loath to adopt a reform that would limit their
influence in Parliament. Even MPs supporting the reform
could vote against certain proposals that they see as
detrimental to their political interests, such as reducing
the number of Shi'a representatives. In the end, support for
the reform will depend primarily on the particular reduction
proposal and the Government's willingness to expend political
(and financial) capital to ensure its passage. Even if the
reform stalls yet again, the participation of women in the
2007 elections for the first time in Kuwait will more than
double the number of voters in each constituency and serve to
limit the scope for electoral corruption. End summary and
comment.

Liberals and Islamists' Marriage of Convenience
-------------- --


2. (SBU) The strongest support for a reduction comes from
liberals and Islamists, who see the reform as a critical
component of broader political reform in the country and a
possible precursor to official Government recognition of
political parties. If the reform is passed, it will likely
force candidates to campaign on more broad-based platforms to
the benefit of established political associations,
particularly the Islamists. The recent vote to move up the
date for discussing the issue from June 30 to April 17 may
indicate how Parliament would vote on an actual proposal: 23
MPs and 10 ministers voted for the earlier date, while only
12 MPs voted against it. (Note: Only 56 out of Parliament's
64 members were present for the vote. End note.)
Complicating the issue, however, is that, while in principle
many MPs support a reduction, they are likely to oppose
proposals they believe will harm their political interests.
For example, Shi'a MPs who support the reduction have voiced
concern that certain proposals could diminish Shi'a
representation in Parliament. (Note: Shi'a represent
approximately 30% of Kuwait's citizens. End note.) Other
groups make similar arguments. In any case, support for the
reform will depend largely on the specific proposal and its
impact on influential political groups.

Just Want to Be an MP
--------------


3. (SBU) The largest group opposing the reform is
Parliament's Independent Bloc, a coalition of 18
pro-Government, "service deputies": MPs whose political
support is based almost exclusively on obtaining Government
favors for their constituents. Most of these MPs are
unlikely to be re-elected if the reform is passed. There
have been recent indications, however, that a split may be
emerging in the Independent Bloc over the issue with some
members supporting the reform. Vice President of Research at
Kuwait University Dr. Jassem Mohammed Karam, who wrote his
PhD thesis on Kuwait's electoral system, told Poloff in a
March 15 meeting that a number of MPs would "continue to
fight to the end to block the reform, unless constituencies
were divided their way." One member of the Independent Bloc
told Poloff recently that he opposed the reform because he
did not want to give up his "right to be an MP."

The Government's Ambiguous Position
--------------


4. (C) During a March 4 call to congratulate Minister of
Public Works and Housing Bader Al-Humaidi on his
re-appointment to the Cabinet, the Ambassador sought his
assessment of the prospects for electoral reform. The
Minister said he personally favored five constituencies, but

KUWAIT 00000892 002 OF 002


that he thought the only proposal with a realistic
possibility of succeeding was one with ten constituencies.
Al-Humaidi discussed the difficulty of deciding the criteria
for the creation of the districts, pointing to the
possibility of disproportionate representation by more
prolific Kuwaiti sectors representing more conservative
elements in the society, while the population among the
traditional Kuwaiti (and more liberal) families living in the
older districts was not keeping up. Thus, he did not favor
the creation of districts simply on the basis of dividing up
the country by population. After meeting recently with
pro-reform MPs, Prime Minister Shaykh Nasser Mohammed
Al-Sabah reportedly promised the Government would submit its
reduction proposal to Parliament well ahead of the April 17
date for discussing the issue. While high-level Government
officials, like Al-Humaidi, have expressed their support for
electoral reform (refs A and C),many contacts question their
sincerity, noting that the reform would limit the
Government's influence on Parliament and could prevent
legislation the Government supports from being passed.


5. (C) One expert on Kuwait's political system, Dr. Ali
Al-Zo'bi, told Poloff March 11 that he supported five
constituencies, and would even settle for ten, but doubted
either would pass. A sociology professor at Kuwait
University, Al-Zo'bi questioned the Government's seriousness
in supporting electoral reform, noting that "the Government"
wanted to put Dr. Abdullah Al-Maatouq, the Minister of Awqaf
and the Minister of Justice, on the ministerial committee
reviewing electoral reform. Al-Maatouq's addition would tip
the balance of the committee against the reform, he said.
According to Al-Zo'bi, other committee members opposing the
reform were Shaykh Ahmed Al-Fahd Al-Sabah, the Minister of
Energy, and Mohammed Daifallah Sharar, the Deputy Prime
Minister, Minister of State for National Assembly Affairs,
and Minister of State for Cabinet Affairs. He said Minister
of Planning Dr. Ma'souma Al-Mubarak and Minister of
Information Dr. Anas Al-Rasheed, who also serve on the
committee, supported the reduction. Al-Zo'bi did not comment
on the leanings of the committee's chairman, Minister of
Justice and Minister of Interior Shaykh Jaber Mubarak
Al-Sabah.


6. (C) Al-Zo'bi believed the Government would propose ten
constituencies gerrymandered in such a way as to give tribal,
sectarian, and religious groups the majority in particular
constituencies while ignoring demographic consistency.
According to Al-Zo'bi, this proposal would also increase the
proportion of "urban" MPs in Parliament, which he said were
currently under-represented. He speculated voters would have
either four or five votes each under this proposal, which
would limit vote buying. Overall, though, Al-Zo'bi was
pessimistic about the potential for reform, arguing that
regardless of which proposal, if any, was adopted the same
"bad people" would be elected.


7. (U) The final cable in this series assesses the
seriousnes of the government on the issue of electoral
reform.

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For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
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LEBARON