FREEDOM AGENDA - ELECTORAL REFORM PART I OF III:

UNCLAS KUWAIT 000891

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR NEA/ARP, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - CAPTION ADDED

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KU FREEDOM AGENDA NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA - ELECTORAL REFORM PART I OF III:
WHAT'S AT STAKE?

REF: A. KUWAIT 656

B. KUWAIT 636 AND PREVIOUS

C. 05 KUWAIT 5186


1. (SBU) Summary and comment: This is the first in a series
of three cables on electoral reform in Kuwait. Debate over
proposals to reduce the number of electoral constituencies, a
key political reform, continues to dominate political
discussion in Kuwait. Reducing the number of constituencies
from the current 25 would significantly decrease the
potential for electoral and political corruption; reduce the
influence of individuals, business interests, and the
Government on Parliament; and force parliamentary candidates
to campaign on more broad-based political issues rather than
limited familial, tribal, and/or sectarian connections.
While both political and popular support for the reform is
growing, there is still considerable disagreement on the
number and geographic distribution of the reduced number of
constituencies; any redistricting would seriously impact
electoral outcomes. Proposals vary widely and many are
merely intended to serve specific political interests.
Parliament is scheduled to discuss the issue on April 17.
Ironically, the corruption that electoral reform aims to
limit is also the primary obstacle to its passage. Due to
entrenched interests, particularly in the Government, many
may be ultimately unwilling to back a reform that will limit
their influence in Parliament. The outcome of the April 17
session will indicate how serious the Government is about
implementing this and other important reforms. End summary
and comment.

A Long Stalled Reform
--------------


2. (SBU) Proposals to reduce the number of electoral
constituencies have been long stalled in Parliament with both
the Government and parliamentarians (MPs) blaming each other
for the delay. In a positive development, the Government
recently supported a parliamentary motion to set April 17 as
the date to discuss a report that Parliament's Defense and
Interior Affairs Committee was tasked to submit on the issue
(ref B); however, the committee, which is composed entirely
of MPs opposing the reform, has twice failed to meet previous
deadlines. The committee's report is supposed to be based on
a new Government reduction proposal, which is still being
drafted by a ministerial committee chaired by Minister of
Defense and Minister of Interior Shaykh Jaber Mubarak
Al-Sabah. In 2004, the Government submitted two separate
proposals to Parliament, both proposing a reduction to ten
constituencies. The proposals were effectively tabled,
however, when MPs failed to agree on which proposal to
discuss first. Any further delay beyond the April 17 date is
likely to make passage of the reform before the 2007
parliamentary elections highly unlikely.

Why Electoral Reform Matters
--------------


3. (SBU) A reduction in the number of electoral
constituencies from the current 25 would significantly
decrease the potential for electoral and political
corruption. Under the current system, each constituency
averages 5,500 registered voters with each voter being able
to vote for two candidates; the electoral system is single
round, first-two-past the post. In the 2003 elections, the
top two candidates averaged 1927 and 1628 votes,
respectively; two MPs were elected by a margin of only three
votes (ref C). With so few voters per constituency, the
potential for corruption is very high and candidates often
win or lose elections based on only several hundred votes.


4. (SBU) An additional drawback to the 25 constituency
system is that it encourages MPs to run on familial, tribal,
and/or sectarian connections. In many cases, the candidates
who are elected are those that can obtain the most favors for
their constituents, leading to the rise of a group of MPs
commonly called "service deputies." Fewer constituencies
with more voters per constituency would theoretically force
candidates to campaign on more broad based political
platforms, increasing the influence of political
associations, particularly the Islamists. (Note: Political
parties are not officially recognized by the Government. End
note.)

Same Problem, Different Solutions
--------------


5. (SBU) While support for the reform seems to be growing,


there is still considerable disagreement on the number and
geographic distribution of the reduced number of
constituencies. According to a recent survey conducted by
the Arabic-daily Al-Qabas, the majority of those surveyed,
55%, supported a reduction to five constituencies. Thirty
percent supported ten constituencies and 15% supported
maintaining the current 25. Proposals vary widely, ranging
from ten constituencies to one, with each dividing
constituencies differently, leading many to accuse MPs of
attempting to gerrymander the new districts in their favor.
Another unresolved issue is the number of candidates each
voter could vote for in the larger constituencies. Some
plans propose reducing the number of constituencies, but
continuing to allow voters to vote for just two candidates, a
proposal that would offer little improvement over the current
electoral system.


6. (SBU) During a March 15 meeting with Poloff, Vice
President of Research at Kuwait University Dr. Jassem
Mohammed Karam, who wrote his PhD thesis on Kuwait's
electoral system, reviewed a recent report he wrote for the
Council of Ministers, in which he analyzed the reduction
plans proposed by MPs and concluded by advising the
Government to support five constituencies. In his view, the
MPs' proposals were "biased": constituencies were divided to
benefit their own political interests. He was similarly
critical of the two previous Government proposals, which he
claimed were "invalid."


7. (SBU) In his report, Karam advised the Government to
support five constituencies divided on the following five
criteria: (1) preventing gerrymandering; (2) maintaining, "as
much as possible," demographic consistency; (3) minimizing
sectarian and tribal distribution; (4) reducing the divide
between urban and rural constituencies; and (5) ensuring all
segments of Kuwaiti society obtain representation in
Parliament. Karam also proposed voters be given four votes
each, which he believed would limit tribal and/or sectarian
majorities in certain constituencies from monopolizing
elections and lead to more equal representation in
Parliament. While stressing that electoral reform was not a
panacea for Kuwait's political problems, Karam noted that it
would significantly reduce the electoral "anomalies and
loopholes" that contribute to political corruption.


8. (U) Part II of this series will examine who supports and
who opposes the reduction.

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LEBARON