FREEDOM AGENDA: RUMBLINGS OF ANOTHER PARLIAMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 004430

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP, NSC FOR RAMCHAND, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS
FOR WALLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: RUMBLINGS OF ANOTHER PARLIAMENT
DISSOLUTION

REF: A. KUWAIT 4418

B. KUWAIT 4289

C. KUWAIT 4206

D. KUWAIT 2871

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C/NF) Summary: Kuwait has been buzzing with rumors over
the last two weeks that the Amir may dissolve Parliament
again, this time unconstitutionally for a period of up to
three years. Many Kuwaitis have come out strongly against
such a move, arguing that it would exacerbate existing
political tensions and "plunge the country into the vortex of
the unknown." While not ruling it out as a possibility,
most, though not all, of our contacts suggest that an
unconstitutional dissolution is unlikely and the rumors may
be intended as a warning to opposition parliamentarians to
tone down their criticism of the Government. The Amir and
the Prime Minister have commented to visitors recently that
the Parliament is difficult to work with, but that they are
not surprised by the criticism leveled by legislators and
will work with them. On the other hand, the Amir has also
noted in recent conversations the necessity for the United
States to recognize that democracy cannot be imposed in the
region. Our contacts outside the Government largely blame
the current political tensions on the Government's weakness
and poor choice of Cabinet ministers. They argue that the
best solution would be to replace the Cabinet with one more
competent and with closer connections to the political blocs
in Parliament. If Parliament is dissolved
unconstitutionally, some predict the Kuwaiti people and
political groups would "react strongly" and "take to the
streets." Others, however, note that this so-called "reform"
National Assembly is so far focused on narrow self-serving
objectives and some personal vendettas against ministers. End
summary.

Strong Reaction to Rumors of Possible Dissolution
-------------- --------------


2. (C/NF) Local press have been buzzing over the past couple
of weeks about rumors the Amir might dissolve Parliament
again. While the Amir is constitutionally required to call
new elections within two months of a dissolution, some
observers speculate he could delay elections for up to three
years. (Note: Parliament has been dissolved
unconstitutionally twice before, the last time in 1986. End
note.) A front-page article in the November 5 Arab Times
(local English daily) reported that the Government was
currently studying the possibility of "suspending
(Parliament) for three years and amending Article 4 of the
Constitution," which deals with succession. The article
quoted "a highly placed source" as saying "the political
atmosphere in the country has become unbearable and the
continuous threats of MPs to 'grill' ministers are preventing
the Government from doing its duty and implementing
development projects." The source continued: "MPs should
know Kuwait is passing through a dangerous phase and
decision-makers won't hesitate to take tough decisions."
Separate reports have cited leading opposition MP Ahmed
Saadoun's repeated threats to "grill" the Prime Minister as a
"red line" the Government will not tolerate crossing. In
conversations with visitors lately, the Amir has joked about
the difficulty of dealing with parliament but has not hinted
at dissolution, although he has noted the need for the U.S.
to recognize that it cannot impose democracy on Middle
Eastern countries. The Prime Minister has evinced no
particular concern about the difficulties with the
Parliament, noting to the Ambassador that he has long-time
ties to some of the leading oppositionists and knows how to
deal with them.


3. (SBU) Many Kuwaitis have come out strongly against such a
move, arguing that an unconstitutional dissolution would only
exacerbate existing political tensions. One editorial warned
that an unconstitutional dissolution would "plunge the
country into the vortex of the unknown." It went on to say
that "the crucial issue before the Government now is battling
corruption and personal aggrandizement....An unconstitutional
dissolution will increase corruption and the pillaging of
public funds will grow worse." The Kuwait Journalists'
Syndicate issued a statement November 8, stressing that an
unconstitutional dissolution would trigger "sedition" and
"destabilize Kuwait." Other columnists called on MPs to
moderate their criticism of the Government and give Ministers
more time to address their concerns. A few have argued in
favor of an unconstitutional dissolution as the only way to
resolve political deadlock and move forward on key

KUWAIT 00004430 002 OF 003


development projects.

A Warning to Parliament?
--------------


4. (C/NF) According to several contacts, the Amir openly
discussed an unconstitutional dissolution of Parliament in
recent meetings with the Kuwait Chamber of Commerce, the
Higher Council for the Application of Islamic Shari'a
(HCAIS),and Speaker of Parliament Jassem Al-Khorafi. Ahmed
Deyain, the former Secretary General of the Kuwait Democratic
Forum, told Poloff November 4 that the Amir had also talked
about the possibility of creating a second chamber of
Parliament and revoking recently-passed electoral reform
legislation (ref D). Deyain said he "(did) not rule out the
possibility of an unconstitutional dissolution," but that
such a move was unlikely. He claimed the leadership lacked
the "political will" to dissolve Parliament
unconstitutionally, particularly given regional tensions. An
unconstitutional dissolution could inflame tensions rather
than resolve them, he explained. Deyain suggested the Amir
might have "floated" the possibility as a warning to
Parliament to be more cooperative and tone down their
criticism of the Government. Deyain claimed the Amir's son,
Shaykh Nasser Sabah Al-Ahmed, told him the Amir had wanted to
"frighten" MPs.


5. (C/NF) Deyain blamed the Government for the current
tensions with Parliament. He said the Government is "weak
and does not take initiative, and argued that the "easiest
and most reasonable solution" was to replace the current
Cabinet with one "capable of reconciling with the political
blocs in Parliament." Deyain claimed "80 percent of MPs"
want to work with the Government and have nothing to gain
from a dissolution, but pressure the Government because of
its "ineptness and poor leadership." "If Government change
is introduced, things will change," he predicted. If
Parliament is dissolved unconstitutionally, Kuwait's
political groups "have enough experience to rally around each
other and demand the re-instatement of the Parliament,"
Deyain said. He suggested they could also demand "a more
democratic constitution."

Parliamentarians Disagree on Probability of Dissolution
-------------- --------------


6. (C/NF) In a November 8 meeting, Ahmed Baqer, the
Coordinator of the 17-member Islamic Bloc and a former
Minister of Justice, downplayed the likelihood of an
unconstitutional dissolution, which he said would have "very
negative ramifications." He blamed the current political
tensions on the Government's weakness and poorly chosen
ministers, who did not have "connections" to the political
blocs in Parliament. Baqer predicted the Cabinet would be
reshuffled and, if that failed to resolve tensions, the
entire Cabinet would be replaced before the Amir resorted to
dissolving Parliament. Even then, Baqer believed it would be
a constitutional dissolution. He claimed the Kuwaiti people
and political groups would react "strongly" to an
unconstitutional dissolution, "even more than in 1986," and
predicted they would "take to the streets," which could lead
to "clashes."


7. (C/NF) Liberal MP Mishari Al-Anjari, the Coordinator of
the 8-member National Action Bloc, told Poloff in a separate
meeting November 8 he believed an unconstitutional
dissolution was "likely." "The Government cannot confront
the current Parliament nor those responsible for corruption,"
he explained. Al-Anjari added that some MPs had also made
"mistakes" by pressuring the Government to forgive loans and
offer more benefits to Kuwaitis. Al-Anjari claimed the Amir
had told the Chamber of Commerce, the HCAIS, and the Speaker
that he wanted to "see Kuwaiti society stable and secure, but
due to the current uncooperative political climate, (he) may
have no other option than to dissolve Parliament." According
to Al-Anjari, the Amir said, "If I am forced to do this, I
will do it unconstitutionally."


8. (C/NF) Al-Anjari predicted an unconstitutional
dissolution would be a "jump in the dark" and could lead to
"conflicts." He said the Government would be forced to use
state money to "appease the street," contributing to further
corruption. Like Baqer, Al-Anjari criticized the weakness of
the Government and the composition of the Cabinet. The
current ministers "do not have contacts with the (political)
blocs" in Parliament, he complained. "The choice of good
ministers would ease tensions between Parliament and the
Government," Al-Anjari said. He concluded by predicting that

KUWAIT 00004430 003 OF 003


"either the Government or Parliament will be short-lived."

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For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
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LeBaron