FREEDOM AGENDA: PARLIAMENT SPEAKER SAYS ELECTORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 003856

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR WALLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IZ KU FREEDOM AGENDA
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: PARLIAMENT SPEAKER SAYS ELECTORAL

REFORM OPENS DOOR TO PARTIES; SHARES VIEWS ON IRAQ, LEBANON

REF: A. KUWAIT 3826

B. KUWAIT 2871

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C/NF) Summary: In a September 25 meeting with the
Ambassador, Speaker of Parliament Jassem Al-Khorafi
highlighted the importance of the recently-passed electoral
reform legislation for Kuwait's political future. The new
electoral system will change the nature of parliamentary
politics in Kuwait and open the door for political parties
and, "possibly," a Prime Minister chosen by Parliament. He
cautioned, however, that Islamists, who are more organized
and sophisticated than other political groups, stood to
benefit most from these reforms. The Speaker blamed the
recent Iraq-Kuwait border incidents on "bandits" and claimed
Iran was not involved. He stressed the importance of
initiating a dialogue with Iran on Iraq, "even if you do this
through the United Kingdom." On Lebanon, Al-Khorafi advised
the U.S. not to underestimate Nasrallah's influence and urged
the international community to be careful of the way it
intervenes. End summary.


2. (C/NF) The Ambassador met September 25 with Jassem
Al-Khorafi, who was re-elected as Speaker of Parliament in
July 2006. The Speaker predicted Islamist parliamentarians
(MPs),trying to expand their political base to capitalize on
the new, five-constituency electoral system (ref B),would
"come on strong" in the next parliamentary session, which
starts October 30. He was not optimistic that this
Parliament would last its full four-year term, noting that
some groups in Parliament, "eager to please their base,"
could easily cause friction with the Government.

Electoral Reform Opens Door for Other Political Reforms
-------------- --------------


3. (C/NF) Al-Khorafi stressed the significance of the
recently-passed electoral reform legislation for Kuwait's
political future. Historically, Kuwaitis have voted based on
three motivations: 1) personal relationships, 2) tribal
affiliation, and 3) sectarian allegiance, he explained.
"With five electoral constituencies, it will be different.
It will be more difficult to depend (solely) on personal
charisma to win elections." Al-Khorafi predicted the next
elections would be based on "political groupings" (ref A) and
the ones after that on "political parties," though he
suggested parties could come sooner if Parliament eventually
approves a one constituency electoral system, something he
seemed to think likely.


4. (C/NF) Once political parties are allowed, Al-Khorafi
said a Prime Minister chosen by Parliament could follow.
Already, the constitutional barriers to "grilling" the Prime
Minister had been removed with the 2003 separation of the
posts of Crown Prince and Prime Minister, he explained;
nothing but tradition prevents MPs from putting the Prime
Minister "on the stand." Now that the posts have been
separated, it is very difficult to re-unite them, Al-Khorafi
said. He believed the ruling Al-Sabah family would "go along
with this trend" and not try to resist these changes. "This
is what makes us different from other Gulf countries," the
Speaker concluded. (Comment: Several MPs' threats to "grill"
the Prime Minister over electoral reform, which an
influential ruling family member told the Ambassador was a
"red line," were one of the primary reasons for the
dissolution of Parliament in May. The subsequent elections
were seen by many here as a referendum on reform and resulted
in a landslide victory for pro-reform, opposition candidates.
These new political developments may influence the Al-Sabah
to alter their leadership style, however, there is
considerable opposition from some members of the ruling
family close to the Amir to any diminution of the Al-Sabah's
political power. End comment.)

Islamists Poised to Benefit from Reforms
--------------


5. (C/NF) The Speaker cautioned, however, that Islamists
would benefit most under the new electoral system because
they were better organized and more sophisticated than other
political groups. He cited as an example his belief that
Islamists successfully leveraged their superior organization
in the June parliamentary elections to capitalize on women
voting, and the recent Kuwait University Student Union
elections in which an Islamist coalition won a landslide
victory for the 28th straight year. Right now, "the
Islamists are enjoying their election victories," Al-Khorafi

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said, noting that the Islamic Constitutional Movement (ICM),
the political arm of the Kuwaiti Muslim Brotherhood, had
succeeded in capturing six seats in Parliament. He added,
however, that their gains "don't carry any weight" unless
they cooperate with other groups on common legislative
objectives. The Speaker claimed there were "a lot of
difficulties within the (18-member) Islamic Bloc." While the
six ICM MPs "all talk one language, the group (as a whole)
doesn't," he said; "the group will not vote together except
on Islamist issues," like passage of a zakat (religious tax)
law.

Border Incidents Not Politically-Motivated
--------------


6. (C/NF) Al-Khorafi blamed the recent Iraq-Kuwait border
incidents on "bandits" and claimed Iran was not involved. He
said the incidents "had nothing to do with politics," adding
that "Iran is mainly concerned with the future of Iraq and
how they can play a role in it." The Speaker emphasized that
the GOK wanted to "maintain an official dialogue" with the
Iraqi government and downplay the incidents in official
statements. Noting that certain groups in Kuwait were
"starting to say things" about the incidents, Al-Khorafi said
he was concerned that the situation could escalate if not
handled properly. Given the current instability in Iraq,
"these types of things (i.e. border incidents) happen," he
concluded.

Dialogue with Iran on Iraq Essential
--------------


7. (C/NF) The Speaker stressed the importance of initiating
a dialogue with the Iranian government on Iraq, "even if this
is through the United Kingdom." "Time is running," he said.
The Ambassador replied that the USG previously offered to
begin such a dialogue to focus on security issues.

"Don't Underestimate Nasrallah's Influence"
--------------


8. (C/NF) Turning to Lebanon, Al-Khorafi advised, "Don't
underestimate (Hassan) Nasrallah's influence." He continued:
"The situation will become more serious if we start creating
heroes where there are none." The Speaker believed the U.S.
"did not handle (the conflict) well" and "wasted a lot of
time" by not getting President Lahoud on board fast enough.
"Syria is there. Their groups are there. The President
(Lahoud) is there. These are facts." Prime Minister Siniora
"is trying to swim against the current," Al-Khorafi said.
"He is doing a good job, but he is weak." He added, though,
that sometimes Siniora's very weakness strengthened his
position. "Unfortunately, the reality of what is happening
in Lebanon makes it easy for certain groups to use this as a
justification for their policies in the region. This is the
danger," Al-Khorafi argued. "If the international community
interferes (in Lebanon),it needs to be very careful as to
how it does this," he advised. "You don't need to create new
enemies, the ones you have are sufficient," Al-Khorafi
concluded.

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For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
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LeBaron