FORMER GCC SECRETARY GENERAL: "NO COMMON GCC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 003830

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/IR AND NEA/ARP, NSC FOR RAMCHAND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL IR KU KUWAIT IRAN RELATIONS
SUBJECT: FORMER GCC SECRETARY GENERAL: "NO COMMON GCC
STRATEGY ON IRAN"

REF: A. KUWAIT 2883

B. KUWAIT 2855

C. KUWAIT 397

Classified By: DCM Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C/NF) Summary: Former Secretary General of the Gulf
Cooperation Council Ambassador Abdullah Bishara told PolOff
September 19 the GCC had "no common strategy on Iran," a
problem he attributed largely to friction between Saudi
Arabia and Qatar. He believed an effective GCC strategy
should support: 1) Iranian cooperation with the IAEA; 2)
Iran's compliance with UNSCR 1696; 3) continued Iranian
dialogue with the EU-3; and 4) the creation of a Gulf
nuclear-weapons free zone. Bishara suggested the U.S. could
support the formulation of more cohesive GCC policy by
continuing to support European dialogue with Iran, presenting
a "serious" Middle East peace plan, and supporting the IAEA.
Bishara expressed some concern about the impact of regional
developments on Shi'a-Sunni relations in Kuwait, but said
that overall relations were "very good" and dismissed the
possibility of wide-spread, sectarian-influenced domestic
unrest in Kuwait. Bishara said the primary threat to Kuwait
from Iraq was continued instability. He claimed the
emergence of a largely autonomous Shi'a region in southern
Iraq would "not have a major impact on Kuwait." Bishara
believed the recent Israel-Hizballah conflict had
de-legitimized Hizballah in the eyes of Gulf Arabs due to the
damage inflicted on Lebanon as a result of Hizballah's
"brinkmanship" and "adventurism." End summary.

Obstacles to and Suggestions for Common GCC Strategy
-------------- --------------


2. (C/NF) During a September 19 meeting with PolOff, former
GCC Secretary General Ambassador Abdullah Bishara lamented
the fact that there was "no common GCC strategy on Iran," a
problem he blamed primarily on tensions between Qatar and
Saudi Arabia. The Qataris see Saudi Arabia as a greater
threat than Iran and routinely provoke the Saudi government
by hosting dissident Saudis on Qatar-based Al-Jazeera
television programs, he explained. The Saudis respond more
subtly through their media outlets and by applying economic
pressure on Qatar, Bishara said, citing a recent "Saudi
financial paper" that was unfavorable to Qatar. Other Gulf
countries are concerned by these tensions, which undermine
the cohesiveness of the GCC. Bishara, who is one of Kuwait's
five GCC Advisory Committee members, said he was "surprised"
by Qatar's vote against UNSCR 1696. Qatar should have voted
for the resolution, but qualified its position in the
adjoining notes, he argued.


3. (C/NF) Explaining other GCC countries' position on Iran,
Bishara said Oman supports "dialogue" and "neutrality," and
does not see Iran as a major threat. The United Arab
Emirates (UAE) has its own specific bilateral issues with
Iran, most notably the long-running islands dispute, which
complicate cooperation with the GCC on a common Iran
strategy, he noted. Bishara claimed Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
and to a lesser extent Bahrain have a "well-defined, coherent
approach towards Iran," but stressed that "this is not
enough. We need a unified, common GCC policy." Bishara
believed this policy should mirror the Saudi-Kuwait-Bahrain
approach and: 1) Encourage Iran to cooperate fully with the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); 2) Urge Iran to
comply with UNSCR 1696; 3) Encourage continued Iranian
dialogue with the EU-3; and 4) Urge the creation of a Gulf
nuclear-weapons free zone. Bishara said the GCC "needs to
state these positions clearly," but acknowledged that there
was no agreement on these four points.


4. (C/NF) Bishara argued that some Arab countries' calls for
a Middle East-wide nuclear-weapons free zone were a
distraction and played into Iran's hands by reducing pressure
on the GOI to halt its own nuclear program. He noted,
however, that Kuwait's FM Dr. Mohammed Al-Sabah had also
recently called for a Middle East nuclear-weapons free zone
in his speech at the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) conference in
Cuba, though he downplayed this as mere rhetoric.


5. (C/NF) The U.S. can help promote a common GCC strategy on
Iran by "presenting a serious Middle East peace plan" and
"continuing to work with the Europeans," Bishara argued. He
believed "the Europeans will ultimately admit that their
approach (to Iran) is futile," but he said it was nonetheless
important to present a united international front on Iran.
He particularly stressed the need for the U.S. and EU-3 to
agree on common policy, noting that French President Jacques
Chirac's recent comments suggested divisions among the allies

KUWAIT 00003830 002 OF 002


on Iran. Bishara also urged the U.S. to support the IAEA,
whose reports he said provided valuable legitimacy for
criticisms of Iran's nuclear program and were seen as more
objective than U.S. allegations of Iranian nuclear intentions
and capabilities. Ultimately, solving the Israel-Palestinian
issue and stabilizing Iraq will open a "corridor of
stability" in the region, Bishara concluded.

Kuwaiti Shi'a-Sunni Relations Good, But Irritants Exist
-------------- --------------


6. (C/NF) Speaking about the recent pro-Hizballah rallies in
Kuwait (refs A and B),Bishara said, "I have never in all my
life seen such public displays of sectarianism in Kuwait."
He added that he "worried" about the "intensity of activities
in Kuwaiti husseiniyas (religiously-oriented Shi'a
diwaniyas)" after the recent Israel-Hizballah conflict, but
noted that there were "significant differences" among Kuwaiti
Shi'a on this issue. According to Bishara, Kuwaitis are
"very concerned" about the impact of sectarian violence in
Iraq, tensions with Iran, and the Israel-Hizballah conflict
on sectarian relations in Kuwait. Although he characterized
overall Shi'a-Sunni relations in Kuwait as "very good,"
Bishara warned that these three issues, which Shi'a and
Sunnis tend to view differently, were an "irritant" to
relations between the two communities. He noted, though,
that on some issues such as U.S. policies, Hizballah and
Hamas, and Iran's nuclear program, hard-line Sunni Islamists
and pro-Iran Shi'a shared some common positions.


7. (C/NF) Bishara dismissed rumors of Iranian-backed Shi'a
sleeper cells in Kuwait, arguing that "there are
'sympathizers,' but no 'cells' or 'proxies.'" He claimed
that although there was a "small, but vocal minority" of
Shi'a in Kuwait who "sympathized" with Iran and supported its
policies in articles and speeches, the majority of Kuwaiti
Shi'a did not/not support Iran or Hizballah.

Threat from Iraq: Instability, not Federalism
--------------


8. (C/NF) Bishara said the primary threat from Iraq was
continued instability, not the emergence of a largely,
autonomous Shi'a region in southern Iraq. "Federalism in
Iraq will not have a major impact on Kuwait," he claimed. If
sectarian violence continues or increases, Bishara warned,
Shi'a-Sunni relations in Kuwait could be negatively affected.
He was particularly concerned about sectarian death squads,
though he did not explain how he thought these groups would
impact Shi'a-Sunni relations in Kuwait. Bishara reported
that the Saudis had "good relations" with Sunni tribal
shaykhs in Iraq and tried to play a mediating role between
them and other groups. Bishara claimed "most Sunni leaders
in Iraq," whom he described as "not credible," were "worried
about their future."

Concerns about Regional Developments
--------------


9. (C/NF) According to Bishara, Egypt, Jordan, and the GCC
are fighting against "Iran, Hizballah, Sunni extremists,
Shi'a sympathizers, Hamas, and Syria" to implement a
"moderate, peaceful vision for the Middle East." Although
Bishara said he believed "we (the moderates) are winning," he
admitted that "we fear Iran's designs on the region" and its
nuclear ambitions. "Iran has the ability to wreak havoc in
Iraq and to destabilize the Gulf," Bishara warned.
Reiterating a previous point, Bishara stressed that "we can
resist Iran through a strong Egypt-Jordan-GCC alliance and by
finding a just solution to the Israel Palestinian issue,
because this is being used by Hizballah, Iran, and other
extremists (to justify their actions)." On Lebanon, Bishara
was somewhat more optimistic, saying he believed the recent
Israel-Hizballah conflict had "de-legitimized" Hizballah in
the eyes of Gulf Arabs due to the damage inflicted on Lebanon
as a result of Hizballah's "adventurism" and "brinkmanship."


********************************************* *
For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
********************************************* *
LeBaron