KUWAITIS SHARE CONCERN ABOUT IRAN; URGE POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 003740

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/IR AND NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR KU KUWAIT IRAN RELATIONS
SUBJECT: KUWAITIS SHARE CONCERN ABOUT IRAN; URGE POLITICAL
SOLUTION

REF: A. KUWAIT 2883

B. KUWAIT 2855

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Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C/NF) Summary and comment: On September 16, the
Ambassador hosted a roundtable lunch with a number of leading
academics, political leaders, and Kuwaiti Shi'a politicians
to hear their views on Iran. The group agreed that President
Ahmadinejad's economic policies had largely failed, but felt
he had succeeded in rallying Iranians around the nuclear
issue. Many guests lamented the lack of a clear, unified GCC
strategy towards Iran, which a member of the GCC Advisory
Committee blamed on divisions within the GCC. One guest
noted the difficulty of separating U.S. concerns over Iran's
nuclear program from U.S. support for Israel. These two
issues are linked in the eyes of Arab publics, he argued.
All the guests emphasized the need to find a political
solution to the tensions with Iran, arguing that any military
confrontation would be "disastrous" for the region. End
summary.


2. (C/NF) During a September 16 lunch hosted by the
Ambassador, a diverse group of high-level Embassy contacts
shared their views on Iran, specifically Iranian influence on
the Gulf and the motivations of the Iranian regime. Chairman
of the Political Science Department at Kuwait University Dr.
Abdul Reda Assiri, who recently traveled to Iran, said
average Iranians were less optimistic about their future
today than a year ago, a development he blamed on President
Ahmadinejad's failed economic policies. Ahmadinejad's "one
success," though, was uniting the Iranian people around the
nuclear issue, he said. Dr. Mohammed Al-Rumaihi, a
distinguished academic and Advisor to the Prime Minister,
agreed, arguing that Ahmadinejad had used the nuclear issue
to "galvanize" Iran's population and strengthen the influence
of the hard-liners within the regime. Dr. Moudhi Al-Hamoud,
the President of Arab Open University, urged "more positive
engagement" with Iran, led by the Europeans. American
pressure on Iran was often counter-productive and only served
to strengthen the position of the hard-liners at the expense
of more "moderate" voices, she contended.

GCC Lacks Clear Strategy on Iran
--------------


3. (C/NF) A number of the guests lamented the lack of a
clear, unified Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) strategy
towards Iran. Although the GCC of necessity relies on the
international community, specifically the U.S., to deal with
the Iranian threat, Gulf countries need to play a more active
role in confronting Iran, they argued. Jassem Al-Nisif, one
of Kuwait's five GCC Advisory Committee members, blamed
divisions within the GCC for the absence of a unified
strategy. Dr. Assiri said this lack of strategy put Arab
countries at a disadvantage when dealing with Iran, which had
a clear regional agenda. Ali Al-Tameemi, the former Chairman
of the Kuwait Economic Society, said Gulf countries needed to
be particularly aware of potential Iranian efforts to
undermine their internal "social cohesion" and should devise
a strategy for dealing with domestic tensions. Al-Tameemi
believed Iran had demonstrated this capability during the
recent pro-Hizballah rallies in Kuwait (reftels) and warned
of Iranian "proxies" operating in Kuwait and elsewhere in the
GCC.

The Israel Factor
--------------


4. (C/NF) Abdul Mohsen Taqi Muzaffar, the former Secretary
General of the Kuwait Democratic Forum (KDF),a liberal
political association, stressed the need to "neutralize" the
Israel factor when dealing with Iran. Many people in the
Arab world believe the U.S.'s primary objective in
confronting Iran over its nuclear program is to protect
Israel, rather than its Gulf allies, he said. Until the U.S.
adopts a more balanced policy on Israeli-Palestinian issues,
Arab publics will continue to view U.S. policy towards Iran
through the prism of U.S. support for Israel, Muzaffar
concluded. Dr. Assiri argued that the Arab world is divided
between those that support Iran's acquisition of nuclear
weapons as a balance to Israel and those in the Gulf whose
opinions range from indifferent to genuinely fearing a
nuclear-armed Iran.

Hizballah: If at First You Don't Succeed
--------------


5. (C/NF) Dr. Assiri argued that Iran's efforts to increase

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its influence in Lebanon through the recent Israel-Hizballah
conflict had largely failed. Dr. Shafeeq Ghabra, the former
President of the American University of Kuwait, said Iran
might actually lose influence if Hizballah was effectively
marginalized in the Lebanese political system as a result of
its adventurism. Several other guests seemed to agree with
this analysis. They warned, however, that Iran was trying to
apply the Hizballah model -- gaining influence through
charitable giving and community services -- in Iraq. They
feared Iran might also try to similarly gain influence in
Gulf countries.

Political Solution the Only Solution
--------------


6. (C/NF) Dr. Al-Hamoud claimed Kuwaitis were very concerned
about the possibility of a conflict over Iran's nuclear
program, but nonetheless stressed the need for the
international community to keep pressure on the Iranian
regime, saying, "Iran needs to feel the heat." Most of the
guests agreed, however, that economic sanctions on Iran would
be largely ineffective. Dr. Rumaihi argued that Iran was
perfectly happy to be an enemy of the U.S., a position the
regime used to increased its influence both domestically and
internationally.


7. (C/NF) All the guests stressed the need to find a
political solution to the tensions with Iran and argued that
any military conflict would be "disastrous" for the region.
If it is attacked, "Iran will not hesitate to use the
considerable means at its disposal against U.S. interests in
the region," former (Shi'a) Planning Minister Ali Al-Mousa
said. He added: "And we (in the Gulf) will not be immune
from attack." Dr. Assiri echoed this view: "Iran doesn't
need nuclear weapons to threaten us. It's conventional
capabilities are threatening enough." Dr. Ghabra agreed,
saying, "We cannot live through another war." The U.S.
should allow time for domestic political change in Iran, the
guests argued.

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For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
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LeBaron