ON IRAN, KUWAIT PREPARING CONTINGENCY PLANS AND

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 003618

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/IR AND NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL IR KU KUWAIT IRAN RELATIONS
SUBJECT: ON IRAN, KUWAIT PREPARING CONTINGENCY PLANS AND
BEEFING UP SECURITY; COULD SIGN NON-AGGRESSION AGREEMENT

REF: A. KUWAIT 3447

B. KUWAIT 2883

Classified By: DCM Matthew Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S/NF) Summary: During a September 5 meeting, National
Security Bureau (NSB) Iran analyst Ghanim Al-Otaibi told
PolOff that the Kuwaiti government's (GOK) strategy for
dealing with Iran covered three main areas: political,
military, and internal security. According to Al-Otaibi, all
government ministries were recently tasked to draft
contingency plans to deal with NSB-developed scenarios
related to Iran. Al-Otaibi said the GOK's primary domestic
security concern was the possibility of Iranian-backed
terrorist attacks, but the Government believed it had the
situation under control. Al-Otaibi confirmed a recent report
that negotiations on a number of bilateral issues between
Kuwait and Iran had been "put on hold" until the nuclear
issue was resolved. He also reported that Kuwait had drafted
a Non-Aggression Agreement, which it would submit to Iran if
tensions increased significantly. Al-Otaibi said the
Government was "very disappointed" by the recent
pro-Hizballah demonstrations in Kuwait and was planning to
introduce legislation in the next parliamentary session to
prevent similar demonstrations in the future. End summary.


2. (S/NF) PolOff met September 5 with Ghanim Al-Otaibi
(please protect),the sole Iran analyst at the National
Security Bureau, the organization responsible for
coordinating security and intelligence policy between Kuwaiti
government agencies and ministries. (Comment: Former
Minister of Energy Shaykh Ahmed Al-Fahd Al-Sabah's recent
appointment as the new NSB President is likely to
re-invigorate the organization and substantially increase its
influence within the Government. End comment.) Al-Otaibi
said Kuwait's strategy to deal with Iran covered three areas:
political and military affairs, and internal security. Each
ministry was recently tasked to form high-level internal
committees to develop contingency plans to deal with
NSB-developed scenarios related to Iran, he reported.
Al-Otaibi cited as an example the Ministry of Communications
being asked to identify possible backup communications
systems in case Kuwait's communications were knocked out. He
said most of these committees had already finished their work
and added that the Kuwaiti military was separately developing
its own contingency plans.

Kuwait Prepared to Face Internal Security Threats
-------------- --------------


3. (S/NF) Al-Otaibi said Kuwait's primary Iran-related
security concern was the possibility of Iranian-backed
terrorist attacks in Kuwait, specifically by several radical
Shi'a individuals linked to "Kuwaiti Hizballah." (Comment:
"Kuwaiti Hizballah" is a pejorative term applied to
conservative Kuwaiti Shi'a primarily by their Sunni political
opponents and Kuwait State Security (KSS). The National
Islamic Alliance (NIA),a conservative Iran-leaning, Shi'a
political association, is also sometimes referred to as
"Kuwaiti Hizballah." End comment.) Contrary to most other
contacts, Al-Otaibi claimed "Kuwaiti Hizballah" was a real
organization with a clear leadership structure, though he
stopped short of saying it had a militant wing. While
concerned about this threat, Al-Otaibi emphasized that the
GOK had the situation under control, noting that the KSS knew
the "names and addresses" of these potentially dangerous
Kuwaiti Shi'a and was "keeping a close eye on them." "If we
need to, we are prepared to take drastic measures (against
these individuals)," he said.


4. (S/NF) Al-Otaibi also noted that Kuwait recently
implemented more robust security measures, including
increasing the number of security personnel at vital
installations and installing "more than 7,000" closed circuit
television cameras at oil facilities and in public areas. He
downplayed the likelihood of Shi'a militia groups in southern
Iraq launching rocket attacks on Kuwait, saying the GOK was
"not even considering this possibility." (Comment: This
seems to somewhat contradict with Shaykh Ahmed Al-Fahd's
request for information on Hizballah missile capabilities
(ref A). End comment.)

Kuwait-Iran Bilateral Relations
--------------


5. (S/NF) Al-Otaibi confirmed an August 29 report in the
Arab Times (local English daily) that many bilateral issues
between Kuwait and Iran, including negotiations over Kuwait
importing water and natural gas from Iran, have been put "on

KUWAIT 00003618 002 OF 002


hold" until the nuclear issue is resolved. He was unaware of
an August 5 report in the Daily Star (local English daily)
that negotiations over Iran joining Kuwait's fiber optics
network were expected to be finalized "by early October."
Al-Otaibi was also unaware of an August 16 article on the
Iran Students News Agency website (www.isna.ir) that claimed
a Kuwaiti company was one of three companies the Iranian
government had allowed to purchase stocks on the Iranian
Stock Exchange. After reviewing the reports, however, he
downplayed them as evidence of "normal economic relations"
between neighboring countries.

Possible Kuwait-Iran Non-Aggression Agreement
--------------


6. (S/NF) According to Al-Otaibi, Kuwait has drafted a
Non-Aggression Agreement, which it plans to submit to Iran
"when the time is right." Al-Otaibi said the Iranians
suggested such an agreement several times before, but the GOK
always declined, saying it was unnecessary and would damage
bilateral relations. The renewed interest in a
Non-Aggression Agreement was due to the potential for
increased tension if international sanctions are imposed on
Iran, he explained.

GOK Disappointed by Pro-Hizballah Demonstrations
-------------- ---


7. (S/NF) Commenting on the recent
pro-Hizballah/anti-American demonstrations in Kuwait (ref B),
Al-Otaibi said the GOK was "very disappointed" to see
Kuwaitis, "mainly Shi'a," carrying Hizballah flags and
pictures of Hassan Nasrallah. He continued: "We (the GOK)
see Hizballah as a terrorist organization and Nasrallah as a
terrorist." Al-Otaibi claimed "Iran has agents in Kuwait"
who were involved in organizing the demonstrations and
specifically mentioned Sayed Mohammed Baqer Al-Mohri,
Kuwait's leading Shi'a cleric. "We are certain that
(Al-Mohri) is an agent of Iran and has taken orders directly
from the Iranian regime," he said. According to Al-Otaibi,
Al-Mohri worked behind the scenes with Adnan Abdul Samad and
Ahmed Lari, recently-elected, NIA-affiliated Members of
Parliament who participated in the protests. (Comment: While
the GOK may perceive Al-Mohri to be an Iranian agent, he is
widely respected in Kuwait's Shi'a community where he plays a
mediating role between the various Shi'a factions. Post has
not seen any evidence to support the claim that he is
secretly affiliated with Samad or Lari. End comment.)

SIPDIS
Al-Otaibi said the GOK was planning to introduce legislation
during the next parliamentary session to prevent similar
demonstrations, namely by placing greater restrictions on
politically-themed public gatherings and by prohibiting "dual
allegiances" (e.g. publicly displaying a photo of Nasrallah).

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For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
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LeBaron