Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KUWAIT2774
2006-07-10 12:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Kuwait
Cable title:  

FREEDOM AGENDA: EMBASSY ANALYSIS OF ELECTION

Tags:  PGOV KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3983
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHKU #2774/01 1911210
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 101210Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5694
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 002774 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

FOR NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: EMBASSY ANALYSIS OF ELECTION
RETURNS SHOWS 60 PERCENT OF REGISTERED WOMEN VOTED

REF: A. KUWAIT 2602

B. KUWAIT 2600

Classified By: CDA Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 002774

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

FOR NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: EMBASSY ANALYSIS OF ELECTION
RETURNS SHOWS 60 PERCENT OF REGISTERED WOMEN VOTED

REF: A. KUWAIT 2602

B. KUWAIT 2600

Classified By: CDA Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C/NF) Summary and Comment: Kuwaiti news media reported
that only 35% of eligible women voted in the June 29
Parliamentary elections. Post's statistical analysis puts
the number at approximately 60%. Although Islamists made
gains in the National Assembly, a close look at the voting
numbers shows that women defied expectations that they would
vote in a more pro-Islamist way. In some districts they
displayed a more liberal leaning. And even where their
voting helped Islamist candidates, it is not clear whether
these were votes for Islamism or votes for reform, since the
Islamists favor reforming Kuwait's electoral districts. The
election results could be used to support the theory that
women voted according to their male relatives' wishes, though
alternative explanations could also explain the similarity in
men's and women's voting. Only a qualitative study of
voters' behavior could lend any weight to this theory.
Election statistics confirm that the size of the current
electoral districts opens the possibility of electoral
corruption, though the extent to which this happened is not
known. End Summary and Comment.


Women's Participation Underreported
--------------


2. (SBU) Kuwaiti media sources reported, presumably based
on information from government sources, that 35% of women
participated in the June 29 parliamentary elections. Post
reported this figure in reftels, but noted that its onsite
observations suggested that 35% was too low. Several Kuwaiti
Arabic dailies subsequently printed detailed tables of the
voting, broken down by polling station. Since polling
stations were gender-segregated, the numbers give exact
results as to how many men and women voted. Post performed a
data analysis of the information as published and found that
the original figure of 35% grossly underreported the number
of women who voted. (Note: the numbers contained minor
inconsistencies, but give an accurate general picture. End

Note.) The 194,910 women who were registered to vote cast
199,373 votes. Each voter can vote for up to two candidates.
Assuming that each woman voted for two candidates, this
would put participation at 51%.


3. (C/NF) A significant number of voters only vote for one
candidate if they do not want to give any of his or her
competitors votes, and some women cast empty ballots either
in protest or in error. Figures on the numbers who voted for
fewer than two candidates have only been made available for
several districts. In district 1, 14% of people voted this
way, while in district 4, the only district where a higher
percentage of women than men voted, 28% of people voted for
only one candidate. District 9 is the only district where
these figures were made available for women and men. 22.7%
of women in this district voted for only one candidate,
raising the women's participation figures from 61.7% if we
assume every voter voted twice to 69.6%. Statistics on empty
ballots are insufficient to measure their effect. But
overall, it is reasonable to assume that women's
participation statistics will be 6 - 10% higher than the
51.1% mentioned above. Post's analysis, albeit based on
unofficial numbers, is that just under 60% of eligible women
voters cast ballots. Kuwait University Professor Jassem
Karam, who is Kuwait's foremost expert on the electoral
districts, independently arrived at the conclusion that 58%
of women voted. Karam told Poloff that he did not understand
why the lower figure had been previously reported. Karam
noted that he and Professor Shamlan Al-Eissa have begun a
major study to analyze Kuwaitis' voting behavior in these
elections. They expect to publish the results early in 2007.
Karam also noted that full and accurate statistics should be
available within a month.

Women Did Not Vote Heavily for Islamists
--------------


4. (C/NF) Many Kuwaitis predicted that women's
participation would actually help Islamist candidates. A
cursory look at the election results might support that
conclusion since Islamists increased their representation in
the National Assembly by approximately 10%, depending how one
classifies the new MPs. A closer look reveals that women did
not vote more conservatively than men overall. For instance,
in district 7, a bastion of Islamism, voters re-elected the
two Islamist incumbents. Women voted slightly more liberally

KUWAIT 00002774 002 OF 003


than men. Adel Al-Sarawi, who had barely beaten ex-soccer
star Abdullah Al-Ma'youf in 2003 for second place, came in
first with 34.7% of the male vote and 33.4% of the female
vote. Ultra-conservative Waleed Al-Tabtabaei slipped to
second this year with 30.4% of the male vote and 29.6% of the
female vote. Al-Ma'youf, a pro-Government candidate, won
21.6% of the male vote and 21.2% of the female vote.
Meanwhile, Aisha Al-Rushaid, an outspoken liberal and the
only woman running in the district, got 2.5% of the male vote
and 4.8% of the female vote. In district 5, liberal women's
rights advocate Ali Al-Rashed came in first, taking 25.3% of
the women's vote and 22.9% of the men's vote, while Salafi
Islamist Ahmad Baqer garnered 19.3% of the women's vote and
20.1% of the men's.


5. (C/NF) Women helped Islamists in some districts. In
district 18, Muslim Brother Jamaan Al-Hirbish polled 23.5% of
the women's vote and 22.1% of the men's vote. His victory is
especially noteworthy because second-place finisher Khalaf
Al-Dmaithir (who will still be in the National Assembly) had
come in first in every election since 1981. Dmaithir, a
classic pro-Government service deputy, won 20.6% of the men's
vote and 16.9% of the women's vote. It is not clear,
however, whether these numbers point to an Islamist bent
among women. Dmaithir's low numbers among women relative to
Al-Hirbish's numbers may signify that women were more likely
to vote for change. In this election, the biggest issue was
reduction of corruption and redistricting. Since the
Islamists are reformists on these issues, it is hard to know
whether votes for Islamists were votes for Islamism or votes
for reform. One very liberal young woman from Al-Tabtabaei's
district voted for him, much to her chagrin, because she felt
that he was the most likely candidate to vote for electoral
redistricting.


6. (C/NF) In general, votes in Kuwait are not easy to
interpret. Voters may vote for a candidate based on tribal
connections despite differences in political views. Others
may not vote for the candidate they prefer because they see
him/her as unlikely to be elected. Many voters vote for the
candidate they believe will provide the most services rather
than on the basis of positions on big-picture political
issues. And, as with any political system, voters may vote
for a candidate with whom they agree on one important issue
even though they disagree with his/her views on other issues.
Finally, being able to vote for two candidates introduces
further strategic dimensions to voting. Despite the
difficulty of discerning the meaning of votes from raw
numbers, the numbers strongly suggest that women did not
provide a major boost for the Islamists.

Did Women Vote According to Male Relatives' Instructions?
-------------- --------------


7. (C/NF) Overall, it is striking how similarly men and
women seem to have voted. According to Post calculations, 6
of the 25 districts had a gender gap of less than one
percent, 11 districts had a gender gap between one and two
percent, and 7 districts had a gender gap between two and
three percent. District 24, with a 4.1% gap, is the only
district where the gap exceeded 3 percent. This would seem
to support another of the commonly offered theories in these
elections, i.e. that women would vote according to the wishes
of their fathers, brothers, husbands, or other male
relatives. It is impossible to know, however, what went on
in women's minds as they voted. An alternate theory to that
of women voting according to men's wishes is that women
sufficiently influenced the campaigns so that male candidates
had to take positions that addressed women's concerns. Thus,
on election day there were few candidates who stood out as
especially different from the perspective of men or women.


8. (C/NF) It is somewhat surprising that of those who voted
for women's rights in 2005, eight lost compared to 11 who
were re-elected. Two lost in tribal primaries, which are
illegal and in which women do not participate. Meanwhile, of
those who voted against women's political rights, only 5 lost
re-election bids as compared to 16 who won. One candidate
who voted against women's political rights lost in a primary.
This could be used as further evidence that women were
voting along the same lines as men, though causal statements
are difficult to prove. Many of those who voted against
women's voting rights have come out in favor of constituency
reform, which will probably be the only way women will be
elected. So they may end up helping women into office
despite their initial opposition. Women will have more to
base their decisions on in the next parliamentary elections,
when they will be able to evaluate the men they voted for.
That may be a stronger indication of women's political

KUWAIT 00002774 003 OF 003


independence than this initial trial.

Stats Suggest Why Reformers Want Redistricting
-------------- -


9. (C/NF) Reformers complain that small districts mean
candidates win by such small margins that dispensing of
favors and money for votes is rampant. The election
statistics bear this out. There were seven districts in
which the difference between the second and third place
winners -- i.e. the margin for getting into Parliament -- was
less than 200 voters. In 14 of the 25 districts, the margin
between the second and third place candidates was less than
500 votes. If, as many suggest, some voters are willing to
accept money in exchange for their vote, the cost of buying
500 votes is well within the budgets of many of the
candidates. And it should be noted that the size of the
districts in this election more than doubled because of
women's votes. There were widespread reports of electoral
corruption, though the amount of vote-buying that actually
occurred is unknowable. Media campaigns and many candidates
made it a major campaign issue, which may have led to a
decrease in the incidence of electoral corruption this year.

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Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
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