FREEDOM AGENDA: PRO-REFORM CANDIDATES WIN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 002602

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STATE FOE NEA/ARP, NSC FOR RAMCHAND, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS
FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KWMN PINR KU FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: PRO-REFORM CANDIDATES WIN
LANDSLIDE VICTORY IN JUNE 29 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

REF: A. KUWAIT 2600

B. KUWAIT 2593

C. KUWAIT 2568

D. KUWAIT 2394

E. KUWAIT 2392

F. KUWAIT 1638

G. KUWAIT 1637

Classified By: CDA Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S/NF) Summary and comment: Pro-reform candidates won a
resounding victory in the June 29 parliamentary elections as
voters sent a clear message to the Government on the need for
political reform to combat corruption. Pro-reform MPs now
have a clear majority (34) in the 65-member Parliament.
Overall Islamist representation increased from 15 to 18 seats
with the bulk of these gains going to the Islamic
Constitutional Movement (ICM),the political arm of the
Kuwaiti Muslim Brotherhood. Shi'a representation fell by one
seat to four total; two pro-Government Shi'a MPs were
replaced by two pro-reform, but also Iranian-leaning, Shi'a
candidates. Although female turnout was low and none of the
27 female candidates were elected, women's participation in
these elections for the first time in Kuwait's history had a
tremendous impact and directly contributed to the reformers'
victory. The outcome of the election demonstrates the
wellspring of popular support for reform and presents a
direct challenge to the Government, and the Al-Sabah family
in particular. The challenge for reformers will be holding
together the fragile liberal-Islamist coalition at the heart
of the pro-reform alliance. If it holds together, this
pro-reform alliance will be a force for political change.
Ultimately, these elections are unlikely to significantly
impact the close U.S.-Kuwaiti bilateral relationship.
Kuwaiti Islamists are not monolithic and largely support
Kuwait's strategic relationship with the U.S. The election
of more reformers will put more pressure on the Government to
implement political reforms, though it may further delay
passage of Project Kuwait. End summary and comment.

A Landslide Victory for Reformers
--------------


2. (C/NF) Pro-reform candidates won a landslide victory in
Kuwait's June 29 parliamentary elections, gaining a clear
majority (34) of the 65-member Parliament. (Note: The Prime
Minister is required to appoint one elected member of
Parliament (MP) as a Minister. Therefore, there are always
49 elected MPs and 16 Cabinet Ministers, who serve as ex
officio MPs, in Parliament. End note.) The elections were
precipitated by the Amir's dissolution of Parliament on May
21 after the Government and pro-reform MPs failed to reach
agreement on an electoral reform proposal. This was the
first national election in which Kuwaiti women participated,
both as candidates and voters, since being granted full
political rights in May 2005. Overall turnout in the 25
electoral districts averaged 65 percent; female turnout was
lower, averaging only 35 percent, though in urban areas
female turnout was significantly higher.


3. (C/NF) In all, 31 incumbents were re-elected, of whom 21
were part of the 29-member pro-reform bloc in the dissolved
Parliament. The biggest losers were members of the 18-member
pro-Government Independent Bloc in the last Parliament, of
whom 11 were defeated. As expected, Sunni Islamists achieved
slight gains, increasing their overall representation from 15
to 18. These gains were achieved primarily by the moderate
and pragmatic Islamic Constitutional Movement (ICM),the
political arm of the Kuwaiti Muslim Brotherhood (refs F and
G),which won four additional seats, bringing its total
representation in Parliament to six. It is important to
note, however, that Kuwaiti Islamists are not a monolithic
bloc, and that their increased representation should not be
viewed as a threat to U.S. interests in Kuwait or a setback
to our freedom agenda (ref D). In one way, their success
could be viewed as an ideal outcome: Islamists gained enough
seats to give the pro-reform bloc a majority, but not nearly
enough to push through their conservative social policies.


4. (C/NF) Shi'a representation in Parliament fell from five
seats to four. The nature of the Shi'a representation also
changed dramatically: two pro-Government incumbents,
including former Minister of Commerce Dr. Yousef Al-Zalzalah,
were defeated and replaced by two members of the National
Islamic Alliance (NIA),a conservative, pro-Iran Shi'a
political association. The number of liberals remained the
same with four seats, though Faisal Al-Shaye from the Kuwait
Democratic Forum (KDF) replaced Basel Al-Rashed. (Note: For

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a brief overview of Kuwait's different political
associations, see our classified website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/. End note.) There
are also several new MPs whose political leanings are
uncertain (ref B); it is as yet unclear whether or not they
will join the pro-reform bloc.

A Triumph, Despite not Being Elected
--------------


5. (C/NF) Although no female candidate was elected, two came
in fifth and one fourth in their respective districts. Dr.
Rola Dashti, a high-profile political activist and the
recipient of several MEPI grants, received the most votes of
any female candidate with 1,539. This result is particularly
impressive since Dr. Rola was running in a hotly contested
district that included five other female candidates, one of
whom, Nabila Al-Anjari, also received more than 1,000 votes.
Despite the relatively low turnout among female voters, many
in Kuwait are hailing their participation as a momentous
achievement and an historic moment for Kuwait. During visits
to polling stations June 29, Emboffs observed the enthusiasm
and exuberance of female voters and campaigners, which
contrasted sharply with the more sedate atmosphere at men's
polling stations (ref A). Women's participation had a
dramatic impact on both the issues and rhetoric of the
elections, and directly contributed to the reformers'
victory. It also broke many conservative social taboos and
laid the groundwork for women's full integration into
Kuwait's political system (ref E).

The Gauntlet Thrown
--------------


6. (C/NF) The resounding victory of pro-reform candidates
demonstrates the wellspring of popular support for political
reform in Kuwait and the opposition to corrupt members of the
Government and ruling family. According to one political
analyst, voters have sent a clear message to the Government,
and the ruling Al-Sabah family more specifically, on the
"sweeping desire for reform" and their support for cutting
down the number of constituencies. The results also suggest
that despite the rumors of some members of the ruling
family's flagrant support for pro-Government candidates, they
were unable to significantly affect the outcome of the
elections. One of those most sharply accused of corruption,
Energy Minister Ahmed Al-Fahd, appeared on Al-Rai TV, a
private television station, the night before the elections to
respond to the allegations leveled against him and to explain
his support for Project Kuwait, an $8.5 billion plan to
develop Kuwait's northern oil fields. Clearly his message
did not take with voters. The loss of a parliamentary
majority will represent a significant challenge to the
Government, which is already suffering a lack of confidence
from its handling of the standoff over electoral reform.


7. (C/NF) The challenge for pro-reform MPs will be holding
together the fragile liberal-Islamist coalition at the heart
of the pro-reform alliance. Prior to the elections, there
were some indications that rifts were beginning to emerge as
each group jockeyed for support during campaigning (ref C).
If they can hold the alliance together, this pro-reform
majority will be a powerful force for political change. For
that reason, the Government is likely to expend every effort
to undermine the cooperation between the alliance's
ideologically opposite groups.

Impact on U.S.-Kuwait Relations
--------------


8. (C/NF) The composition of the new Parliament is unlikely
to significantly affect U.S.-Kuwaiti cooperation on OIF and
other key shared security interests. The increased number of
Sunni Islamists should not be seen as a threat. Kuwaiti
Islamists are relatively moderate by regional standards and
most support a long-term U.S.-Kuwait strategic relationship.
Of some concern is the election of two pro-Iran Shi'a
Islamists, who might use the Parliament as a soap box to
criticize U.S. policy towards Iran. It is important to note,
however, that the Parliament has little, if any, influence on
Kuwait's foreign policy, which is set by the Government. On
the domestic front, the victory of more reformers will likely
increase pressure on the Government to adopt political
reforms, starting with a reduction in the number of electoral
constituencies. This could potentially lead to a more open,
representative democracy in Kuwait, which could serve as a
model for other Gulf countries. Ironically, the election of
more reformers could also delay parliamentary approval of

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Project Kuwait, which is strongly backed by Energy Minister
Shaykh Ahmed Al-Fahd Al-Sabah, who is seen by many reformist
MPs as one of those most responsible for rampant corruption.

Next Steps
--------------


9. (C/NF) The Cabinet will submit its resignation on July 1,
as is customary after elections. The Amir is expected to
call on the Prime Minister to form a new Cabinet later next
week after concluding his traditional consultation period.
The first session of Parliament is expected to take place on
either July 12 or July 15. The new Cabinet is normally sworn
in during the first session. Parliament must also vote on
all legislation issued by Amiri decree during the dissolution
period. In addition, pro-reform MPs could introduce, and
theoretically even pass, a five constituency bill during the
first session. Parliament is expected to meet only a couple
of times before recessing for summer, probably before the end
of July.


10. (C/NF) Post will continue to follow post-election
developments closely, paying particular attention to the
composition of new Cabinet and the cohesiveness of the
pro-reform alliance. We are also working on ways to
encourage Kuwaitis to capitalize on this pro-reform momentum.
Just one example, the Charge is hosting an ice cream social
July 3 for pro-reform youth activists. Over the longer-run,
we will also seek to identify potential candidates for
appropriately-themed IVP and MEPI-funded programs. Bios on
the new MPs should be available on our classified website
later this week.

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For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
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