ELECTION COUNTDOWN: KUWAITI CANDIDATES REPRESENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KUWAIT 002593

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

NEA/ARP, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: ELECTION COUNTDOWN: KUWAITI CANDIDATES REPRESENT
A BROAD SPECTRUM AND DEFY NEAT CATEGORIZATION

REF: A. KUWAIT 2446

B. KUWAIT 2419

C. KUWAIT 2150

Classified By: CDA Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary and Comment: Two hundred and fifty-two
candidates will compete in Kuwait's National Assembly
elections on June 29. Over 340,000 voters will go to 91
polling stations between 8:00 am and 8:00 pm to elect two
representatives from each of 25 electoral districts.
Fifty-seven percent of the voters and 27 of the candidates
are women, and will be voting for the first time in a
national election since they won full political rights in

2005. Observers often divide the candidates into a number of
categories: reformist vs. pro-government; liberal vs.
Islamist; tribal vs. urban; service deputy vs. principles
deputy; etc. The range of candidates shows that people are
taking advantage of the considerable freedom of expression
that exists in Kuwait. Tribal candidates, liberals, service
deputies, and women make for a colorful array of choices on
Election Day but many of the candidates resist easy
categorization. Analysis of the outcome will require a
nuanced look at the array of Deputies to emerge from the
election. End Summary and Comment.

Shoo-ins
--------------


3. (C) There are a number of candidates whose election is
considered virtually guaranteed. Abdullah Al-Fahma and
Marzouq Al-Hbaini were chosen by their tribe (the Awazim) in
illegal election primaries to represent the 25th election
district, located in an outlying area south of Kuwait City.
Since approximately 70% of the district's population is from
the same tribe, and since it is taken for granted that most
tribal (as opposed to "urban") voters vote according to their
tribe, these candidates are considered to be unbeatable.
EmbOffs visited the opening night of the candidates, fourth
joint election headquarters. PolOff sat next to former MP
Mashaan Al-Azmi (1999 - 2003) who lost in the 2003 primaries.
Far from being bitter about his loss, he was sitting
prominently in the front row and supporting his tribe. After
asking about a visa for his friend, he predicted women would
have no effect since Awazim vote with the tribe, with the
implication that the tribe had decided on Al-Fahma and
Al-Hbaini. The main issue in this election campaign, he
said, was the government writing off loans to Kuwaiti
citizens. He acknowledged that Hbaini was from the Popular
Bloc, a group of five MPs who do not follow the liberal,
Islamist, or pro-government strains, and that Fahma was a
"service deputy". Thus, while tribal affiliation seems
likely to carry the day, the tribe had chosen candidates from
clearly distinct political strains. Despite Al-Azmi's
comments about women, female tribal candidate Laila Al-Rashed
separately told EmbOff that she had an easier time of
campaigning than her urban counterparts because she had an
automatic support base in her tribe.


4. (C) Other candidates expected to win are former speaker
Jassem Al-Khorafi and former chair of the foreign relations
committee Mohammed Jassem Al-Sager. They have waged
different campaign styles which have been well received by
their supporters. Al-Khorafi, seeking to be re-elected as
speaker, is from one of Kuwait,s richest families and enjoys
close relations with the Government. Yet he capitalized on
the reformist spirit of this election season by breaking with
tradition and criticizing the royal family. Al-Sager has
campaigned heavily on the need for reform and has threatened
not to run for election in 2010 if Parliament fails to
seriously address redistricting. He has reached out to
women, holding mixed and women-only events for them and
including several in his campaign activities.


5. (C) Marzouq Ali Al-Ghanim, born in 1968, has a strong
chance as a first time challenger. His pedigree is well known
-- Al-Khorafi is his uncle, his mother served as the Dean of
Kuwait University, his father was head of the Kuwait Chamber
of Commerce, and another uncle is a multi-millionaire
international businessman -- giving him instant recognition.
He has encouraged respected academics, activists, and former
government officials to speak on the issues of the day at his
campaign tent and featured live webcasts of the forums
(www.marzouq-alghanim.net/live) to attract tech-savvy younger
voters. Al-Ghanim is expected to be a pro-government deputy.

Women Liven the Scene at Liberal Headquarters
--------------


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6. (C) Liberal outgoing MP Basil Al-Rashid has slick
campaign posters featuring an orange handprint, orange being
the color of the reform movement and the five fingers
representing reformers, goal of reducing the number of
electoral districts from 25 to five. On a recent evening his
large tent was filled with a section of uniformly dressed men
and a slightly bigger section of colorfully-clad women. In
contrast to the men stoically listening to Al-Rashid and
occasionally sneaking uncomfortable glances toward the
women's section, the women were buzzing with excitement.
Female campaign workers, many with hijab and some without,
wore bright orange scarves with the candidate's name and
greeted attendees as they arrived. Al-Rashid, who made waves
earlier in the week with harsh criticism of Iran, railed
against corruption in a very polished political performance.
He was followed on the stage by Islamist former MP and
candidate Nasser Al-Sane, who has united with Al-Rashid in
the push to reduce the number of constituencies. The
attendees were not all Westernized liberals: a bearded young
man outside quoted numerous Koranic verses and used the
cadence of a Friday sermon to urge LES Political Specialist
into giving up smoking.

Some Races to Watch
--------------


7. (C) Several women are running high-profile campaigns in
races that will be closely watched. Aisha Al-Reshaid, who
launched her campaign in 2005 shortly after the women's
suffrage vote, is running in a conservative district against
well known former MPs. Her campaign has garnered daily press
attention not only for her outspoken style, but also because
of threats made and damage to her posters. Many Kuwaitis
believe that she is secretly backed by several members of the
ruling family and her electoral success would not come as a
surprise, although few would believe that any win was based
on merit. Another candidate believed to have secret Al-Sabah
support is former Assistant Undersecretary of Tourism Nabila
Al-Anjari. She has a slight advantage over other women in
that many Kuwaitis believe that because of her previous
Government experience, she is better prepared to work in the
male-dominated National Assembly. Dr. Fatima Al-Abdali, a
Kuwait Oil Company executive, has built a steady following of
both women and men over the past month. In addition to
having a well-defined campaign and reading poetry she has
composed, she has visited schools, charitable organizations,
hospitals and diwaniyas to meet with constituents. In her
final seminar before a co-ed audience, she compared the views
of men and women on issues ranging from health to Gulf
security and argued that women in Parliament would be good
for the Kuwaiti family. Both men and women have been
impressed with her intelligence, vision, and commitment, and
appreciate her calm demeanor and that she wears a hijab,
commenting that she is a good representative of Kuwaiti
womanhood. There has been no mention that she also comes from
Kuwait's Shi'a minority community.


8. (C) In the fifth district, liberal former MP Ali
Al-Rashid, who headed the human rights committee and is a
strong supporter of women,s rights and fighting corruption,
faces off against Salafi former MP and Justice Minister Ahmad
Baqer, a staunch opponent of women,s voting rights, and
Anwar Jawad Bukhamseen, the son of an ultra rich Shi,a
businessman. In the previous parliament, Baqer and
Al-Rashid, who represent opposite ends of the ideological
spectrum in Kuwait, represented the district. However, both
were considered leaders of the reform movement, which has
created strange bedfellows. The district could show itself
to be completely unpredictable by ousting one of them in
favor of a traditional pro-government candidate like
Bukhamseen.

The Longshots
--------------


9. (C) Kuwait Economic Society head Dr. Rola Dashti, a
leader of the charge for women's rights and strong backer of
many of the social status issues introduced to the current
debate is not favored to win. She is running against several
well known candidates, including five other women. Also, for
many voters she is not considered sufficiently Kuwaiti. She
is a controversial personality and for this conservative
society is viewed as "too American." Most importantly, she
speaks Lebanese rather than Kuwaiti Arabic (her mother is
Lebanese) and her closest supporters say this will cost her
the race. A man at a male candidate,s diwaniya had a
different interpretation of why she would lose. He asked:
"how many females have been elected to other Arab parliaments
where there are no quotas? Middle Eastern societies just do

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not want female leaders."


10. (C) Dr. Saad Bin Tefla, a strong Post contact who
interpreted for George H.W. Bush when he visited the Kuwaiti
Parliament for the first time after the liberation from Iraq,
is an outspoken liberal Shi'a and a former Minister of
Information. Dr. Saad, who among other projects has produced
his own English-Arabic dictionary of democracy terms, set up
his headquarters only a few blocks from the U.S. Embassy. He
will probably fall victim to two of the following:
pro-government MP Muhammad Al-Mulaifi; Hassan Jowhar, a Shi'a
Islamist; and Salafi Allam Al-Kandari.

A Snowball's Chance...
--------------


11. (C) PolChief visited June 25 a seminar hosted by female
candidate Taiba Al-Ibrahim. The 78-year-old Al-Ibrahim, who
has already raised eyebrows by declaring herself an atheist,
addressed a religiously conservative mixed audience of 200
and argued that citizens should be free to worship as they
please, but states should be secular. While some of the men
questioned whether she wanted Kuwait to be like Turkey or
Tunisia, her remarks on politics and piety and attempts by
some to use the latter to subjugate women drew applause. The
large crowd is not a reflection on her support base. Several
attendees told PolChief they did not live in Al-Ibrahim's
district and were simply visiting various campaign tents and
seminars out of curiosity. Al-Ibrahim's candidacy is
indicative of the freedom of expression enjoyed by activists
and the widespread interest in what candidates have to say.


12. (C) Two blocks from the U.S. Embassy, a candidate who
made a fortune in the slaughterhouse business held a campaign
event on June 25. If elected, he would be a typical "service
deputy," helping constituents get jobs and complete various
transactions requiring wasta ("connections" or "influence").
As grilled meats, salads, and desserts were laid before
EmbOffs, Muhammad Al-Hfaiti, the Clown Prince of Kuwaiti
electoral politics, sat down. This Oklahoma-educated
veterinarian has run half-serious election campaigns a number
of times. His events have traditionally been some of the
best-attended in Kuwait because of his wit, though the 35
votes he got in 2003 was actually an improvement from
previous years. Religious fundamentalists scared him into
abandoning his campaign this year because he had called for
legalizing alcohol. Hfaiti told Poloff "how many people
drink every weekend in the states, 45%? I personally know
that here in Kuwait it's 75%!"

"Fundamentalist" Candidate
--------------


13. (SBU) Poloff ended a recent night of election
headquarters visits at the tent of Allam Al-Kandari, who is
being supported by the Salafi movement. The speeches had
ended, and attendees lounged with their tea. Many crowded
around the big-screen television to watch the World Cup.
While Al-Kandari favors the long beard and traditional
clothes of a religious conservative, his brother is a
Western-educated liberal. He currently serves as Assistant
Undersecretary at the Ministry of Health for legal affairs
and told Poloff at an earlier meeting that he hated the
traditional Kuwaiti dishdasha, but could not wear a suit in
his current position. Despite his liberal outlook, he and a
group of other liberal friends explained that although
candidate Al-Kandari was an "Islamist," he was flexible and
willing to listen rather than just shout. As further proof
of the night's dichotomy, a young boy walked by in a shirt
that read "Wanted: Meaningful Overnight Relationship" as a
20-something sporting a beard meant to convey piety, but
whose pathetic thinness mostly just accentuated his youth,
repeatedly invoked the prophet Mohammad in relating his
efforts to get a British visa.

Kuwaiti Candidates Resist Categorization
--------------


14. (C) Comment: This brief tour of the candidates shows
both the range of opinions Kuwaiti candidates represent, as
well as the difficulty of categorizing candidates. The two
tribal candidates, who should be swept into office without
serious competition based on their tribal affiliation, belong
to decidedly different parts of the Kuwaiti political
spectrum. Fundamentalists scared off the pro-alcohol
candidate, yet liberals were found shmoozing at a Salafi's
tent. And while most people think they know how women will
vote this year, no one can be quite sure. Most of the
candidates are proud of their pro-American views, so while

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the election could affect the GOK's approach to domestic and
family issues, it poses little prospect of disrupting the
grass-roots strength of the bilateral relationship. End
Comment.

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For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
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