WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IN KUWAIT?: EXPECTED SUCCESSION

UNCLAS KUWAIT 000259

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, NSC FOR RAMCHAND, LONDON FOR TSOU,
PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KU SUCCESSION
SUBJECT: WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IN KUWAIT?: EXPECTED SUCCESSION
TIMELINE

REF: KUWAIT 233 AND PREVIOUS


1. (U) The Council of Ministers nominated Prime Minister
Shaykh Sabah Al-Jaber Al-Sabah as the 15th Amir of Kuwait
during an emergency meeting the evening of January 24, hours
after Parliament unanimously voted Amir-designate Shaykh Saad
Al-Salem Al-Sabah medically incapable of holding the position
(reftel). Though only a simple majority (33 votes) is
needed, Parliament is expected to unanimously confirm the
nomination on January 29. This session is likely to be
followed immediately by another to administer the Amiri oath,
allowing Shaykh Sabah to officially assume the position.
Once confirmed, Shaykh Sabah has two days for "consultations"
before appointing a new Prime Minister. The Prime Minister
then has two weeks to form a new Cabinet. Shaykh Sabah will
have one year to appoint a new Crown Prince, though many
expect a nomination much sooner. The Crown Prince must be
approved by a majority of the National Assembly.


2. (SBU) Parliament resorted to relieving Shaykh Saad of his
position when the arrival of the promised letter of
abdication was repeatedly delayed by Shaykh Saad's wife,
Shaykha Latifa, who reportedly demanded 10 million KD ($340
million) annually, the retaining of the titles of "First
Lady" and "the wife of His Highness the Amir," the use of the
private Amiri plane, and the appointment of her son Shaykh
Fahad Al-Saad Al-Salem Al-Sabah as a governmental advisor in
exchange for the letter. Shaykh Latifa finally relented, but
the letter arrived at Parliament minutes after voting began.
In his "acceptance" speech, Shaykh Sabah recognized Shaykh
Saad's dedication to "Kuwait and its people" and the "heroic
role" he played during the Iraqi invasion, but stressed that
his removal was necessary to protect the "security,
stability, and interests" of Kuwait. He said he regretted
the delay in signing the abdication letter caused "by ladies
and kids," but praised Parliament's adherence to
constitutional procedures to "bring the country to safety."


3. (U) Kuwaitis point out that the leadership crisis was
resolved in accordance with the constitution, an indication
of the strength and resilience of the constitutional process
in Kuwait, which, according to some contacts, surprised even
Kuwaitis. Mohammed Al-Jassem, the former editor-in-chief of
Al-Watan and a vocal government critic, argued in a January
25 article posted on his website that the public debate over
succession and the reliance on Parliament to resolve the
controversy broke social taboos against criticizing the
ruling family and set a precedence for greater parliamentary
involvement in political decision-making. He predicted
Parliament would be less hesitant to publicly question the
next Prime Minister. Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman
Mohammed Al-Sager told the Ambassador that he for one was not
embarrassed by the difficulties in naming the new Amir,
noting that Kuwait obeyed "a constitutional process" in the
leadership transition, unlike Syria, for example, where a
cabal installed Assad's son.

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LeBaron