Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KUWAIT2148
2006-06-07 17:42:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Kuwait
Cable title:  

FREEDOM AGENDA AND JUNE 29 ELECTIONS: PROGRESS ON

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA 
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VZCZCXRO1003
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHKU #2148/01 1581742
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 071742Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4993
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 002148 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA AND JUNE 29 ELECTIONS: PROGRESS ON

REFORM DEFINED BY PARTICIPATION AND ACTIVISM

REF: A. KUWAIT 2026 AND PREVIOUS

B. 99 KUWAIT 3570

C. 99 KUWAIT 3562

D. 99 KUWAIT 3266

Classified By: CDA Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 002148

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA AND JUNE 29 ELECTIONS: PROGRESS ON

REFORM DEFINED BY PARTICIPATION AND ACTIVISM

REF: A. KUWAIT 2026 AND PREVIOUS

B. 99 KUWAIT 3570

C. 99 KUWAIT 3562

D. 99 KUWAIT 3266

Classified By: CDA Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S/NF) Summary and comment: The June 29 Kuwaiti
parliamentary election campaign has commenced. Some
observers will be tempted to use votes for women and reform
candidates as a litmus test for the pace and success of
political reform in the Gulf region. A more nuanced view is
required. The grassroots activism and public debate that led
to the constitutional dissolution of Parliament and call for
new elections already demonstrate widespread support for
further democratization and political reform in Kuwait.
While election results may not yield substantial change for a
variety of reasons -- election inexperience of women, lack of
change in size and demographics of electoral districts, short
campaign period, and strong organization skills of
established groups -- change is underway in this conservative
society. There are three overriding reasons for continued
optimism in prospects for reform whatever the outcome of the
June 29 vote: 1) the participation of women is challenging
conservative social ideas, shaping campaign rhetoric, and
forcing men to deal with women as political equals; 2) a
grassroots pro-reform youth movement has emerged, erasing
traditional political apathy and demonstrating the power and
potential of political activism in Kuwait; and 3) the intense
public debate over electoral reform has highlighted the
problems of corruption and the need for reform.


2. (S/NF) This optimism should be tempered with the
realization that well-established interest groups will try to
use the elections to either delay political reform or
consolidate their own political power. There is also likely
to be some degree of truth to allegations of corruption and
Government intervention, though it is important to keep in
mind that many of these accusations are politically

motivated. With women participating for the first time,
these elections represent a new era in Kuwaiti political life
and it is important to assess the broader political
environment and not focus solely on the outcome of a few high
profile campaigns. As we report on the elections over the
next three weeks, we will focus on what the campaigning and
the outcome means for our Freedom Agenda. Finally, any
election outcome is unlikely to have a direct impact on
U.S.-Kuwaiti security cooperation, specifically continued
support for OIF, and the GOK's close relationship with the
United States will allow for continued engagement with the
Government and civil society on the full range of reform
issues. End summary and comment.

Kuwait's Election Mechanics
--------------


3. (SBU/NF) The June 29 parliamentary elections will be
conducted on the basis of Kuwait's current 25 constituency
electoral system. With the addition of female voters, there
are an average of 13,600 voters per constituency, up from
5,500 when only men were allowed to vote. Those ineligible
to vote include members of Kuwait's army and police, persons
under 21 years of age, naturalized citizens who have held
their citizenship for less than 20 years, and people living
in areas outside the boundaries of the current electoral
constituencies. Each voter can vote for two separate
candidates; the electoral system is first-two-past the post.
In the 2003 elections, voter turnout averaged 73 percent. In
all, 386 candidates, including 31 women, have registered for
the elections. Competition is intense; in some
constituencies, as many as 29 candidates are competing for
two seats, though this number is expected to drop as tribal
primaries and other factors weed out candidates who have
until June 25 to withdraw. Election results will be
announced within 48 hours of polling stations closing. Per
constitutional procedures, a new Cabinet must be formed after
every parliamentary election. Thus, the sitting Cabinet must
submit its resignation and a new Cabinet approved by the Amir
within two weeks of the announcement of the election results.
Few, if any, changes are expected in the new Cabinet. The
new Parliament is expected to meet only once or twice in July
before recessing for the summer.


4. (SBU/NF) There are no regulations on campaign financing
in Kuwait, nor are there strict oversight procedures to
ensure candidates do not misuse funds received (ref C).
Campaign costs can be exorbitant as many candidates are
expected to provide lavish buffets and refreshments to
prospective voters at their campaign tents, in addition to

KUWAIT 00002148 002 OF 003


the many banners and assorted paraphernalia they must
purchase (septel). Most support is raised informally through
familial, tribal, or religious networks, though many
candidates also bear a considerable amount of campaign costs
personally. Given the complete absence of regulatory
oversight, allegations of fraud and corruption are
widespread. Though few people can offer concrete proof of
such corruption, there is certainly a measure of truth to
their accusations. Despite this fact, most Kuwaitis see the
elections as a legitimate, albeit somewhat flawed, means of
voicing their political views, and accept the results, though
there are inevitably some candidates who file lawsuits
alleging misconduct on the part of their opponents.

Three Reasons for Optimism
--------------


5. (S/NF) There are likely be those who charge that,
regardless of the outcome, these elections based on existing
constituencies represent a step backwards for reform in
Kuwait. This view misses the profound changes that have and
are occurring in this conservative society. Although these
elections are being held earlier than many pro-reformers
hoped, there are three reasons for optimism. First, women's
participation is having a profound impact on both the issues
being discussed by voters and the strategies being adopted by
candidates. There are subtle, but significant indicators of
this impact. During a campaign rally, former Islamist MP Dr.
Nasser Al-Sane, who voted against women's suffrage
legislation in May 2005, brought his wife on stage to thank
her for her support. In a meeting with female voters in his
district, former Speaker of Parliament Jassem Al-Khorafi was
asked directly why he voted against women's suffrage
legislation when it was first introduced in 1999. Many
liberal candidates, such as former Minister of Information
Dr. Saad bin Teflah, are making women's issues a central
element of their campaign platforms. Women's participation
has also forced conservative, male candidates to develop
strategies to reach female voters, such as creating women's
committees and separate female campaign tents. The election
of a female candidate, which is highly unlikely, should not
be viewed as the standard by which to measure the progress of
reform in Kuwait. Rather, we should focus on the fact that
women have emerged as a potent political force and are having
a significant impact on election rhetoric; some are even
openly and freely challenging conservative social values in
Kuwait.


6. (S/NF) A second reason for optimism is the emergence of a
grassroots reform movement. The diverse coalition of
pro-reform youth organizations called the "orange movement"
that united to press for electoral reform clearly
demonstrated the power of political activism in Kuwait. In a
large part, these elections are a result of their pro-reform,
anti-corruption campaign. The fact that they so openly
challenged the Government and directly accused top Al-Sabah
ministers of fueling widespread corruption was a major
breakthrough in Kuwait. As one pro-reform activist told
Poloff, "This is our victory: we are no longer afraid to name
names." While the orange movement may have trouble
maintaining cohesion and momentum, it has nonetheless
challenged traditional political apathy in Kuwait and through
websites and blogs given young pro-reformers an outlet to
openly express their political views. It has also made
reform the central issue thus far of these elections. The
fact that candidates are campaigning on a pro-reform platform
and are pictured in banners wearing orange scarves is a
testament to the influence of this grassroots pro-reform
movement in Kuwait.


7. (S/NF) The third reason to be optimistic is that the
intense public debate over electoral reform has highlighted
the problems of corruption in Kuwait and the need for reform.
Given the heightened public interest in this issue, there is
a possibility that the next Parliament could be elected with
a clear reform mandate. Already several former MPs have
openly declared that if they are re-elected they will walk
out of Parliament if the new Cabinet includes "corrupt"
members of the previous Cabinet. This debate over reform is
also likely to have an impact on the region as many in the
Arab world, particularly Saudi Arabia, watch the election
process in Kuwait, specifically women's participation, with
great interest. An example of how this impact could be felt
is that Al-Jazeera Direct is planning to begin daily,
30-minute reports on the elections for broadcast around the
region. A secondary effect of the reform debate has been an
alliance between liberals and Islamists in support of
political reform, the benefits of which each group hopes will
accrue to them. Traditionally, these groups have been at

KUWAIT 00002148 003 OF 003


odds with each other, but this tactical alliance could prove
an important new political dynamic. Nonetheless, some
liberal activists expressed to NEA A/S Welch during a June
2-3 visit to Kuwait skepticism at the sincerity of some
Islamist politicians who joined ranks with the liberals.
They said only time will tell how committed they are to
reform. Still, there is cause to hope that the focus on
reform will carry on into the next Parliament and even more
broadly throughout the region.

But There Are also Issues of Concern
--------------


8. (S/NF) This optimism should be tempered with the
realization that certain groups will try to capitalize on
these elections to either delay political reforms or to
increase their own political influence. Led by Energy
Minister Shaykh Ahmed Al-Fahd Al-Sabah and other ruling
family members with ambitions to succeed one day as ruler,
some interest groups are likely to try to ensure the next
Parliament is more amenable to the Government's interests and
less unruly than the last one. This will be all the more
important to them given the key legislation that is likely to
be addressed during the next four years. Their efforts will
almost certainly include the dispensing of patronage to
support loyal MPs. A second concern is that the next
Parliament could include more Islamist MPs. Most contacts
expect the women's vote to primarily benefit Islamists who
are better able to influence and mobilize conservative female
voters. The short campaign period is also likely to benefit
Islamists who are better organized and funded than other
groups. Nonetheless, the election of more Islamist
candidates should not be immediately seen as a setback since
most of them support political reform.

Post's Actions
--------------


9. (S/NF) Analyzing what these elections mean to the U.S.
and to the region will drive our monitoring and reporting of
electoral developments as they occur. To this end, we are
attending nightly campaign rallies and meeting with a variety
of contacts to hear their views on the election process, and
the implications for reform. Our immediate focus will be on
the potential impact of the elections on our Freedom Agenda.
We will also concentrate on the role of women, the influence
of Islamists, the ruling family's view of the elections, and
the alliances between different political groups.


10. (SBU/NF) Post has also directed MEPI programming to
support reforms during the campaign. Several projects to
provide campaign advice and support to female candidates, and
help youth groups to organize voter education campaigns are
underway. In addition, MEPI funding will support a two-day
seminar for journalists on covering elections.

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For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
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TUELLER