SUCCESSION STRUGGLE: JABERS VS. SALEMS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000200

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, NSC FOR RAMCHAND, LONDON FOR TSOU,
PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KU SUCCESSION
SUBJECT: SUCCESSION STRUGGLE: JABERS VS. SALEMS WITH
PARLIAMENT STUCK IN THE MIDDLE

REF: KUWAIT 184 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Dr. Yousef Al-Zalzalah, a moderate Shi'a
member of Parliament, told visitors to his diwaniya
(traditional gathering) the evening of January 21 that the
National Assembly had received two contradictory requests:
one from the Cabinet to begin proceedings to declare Shaykh
Saad medically unfit to be Amir and the other from Shaykh
Saad, via agents, calling for a special parliamentary session
on January 22 at 6:30pm to take the constitutionally-mandated
Amiri oath. The latest reports on succession suggest Shaykh
Saad is still insisting on holding the special parliamentary
session, though ruling family members are in intense
negotiations to resolve the leadership controversy. Dr. Saad
Bin Teflah told Poloffs at his diwaniya that the ruling
family dispute was being exacerbated by the "younger Shaykhs"
from the Al-Salem and the Al-Jaber branches of the Al-Sabah
family who feared being left out of any long-term compromise
deal on succession. Bin Teflah claimed the Al-Salems feel it
is their turn to exercise political power, even through a
physically incapacitated Amir. Kuwaitis are expressing
common disappointment in the ruling family for letting their
differences deteriorate to such a point, but also evince
confidence that a solution will finally be reached. End
summary.

Leading MP: Parliament Received Contradictory Requests
-------------- --------------


2. (C) In visits to diwaniyas (traditional gatherings) the
evening of January 21, Kuwaitis shared with Poloffs their
views on the succession crisis currently dominating
discussion in Kuwait. Dr. Yousef Al-Zalzalah, a moderate
Shi'a member of Parliament (MP),told visitors to his
diwaniya that the National Assembly had received two
conflicting letters on January 21: one from the Council of
Ministers requesting activation of Article 3 of the
Succession Law, which provides for removal of the Amir for
health reasons (reftel),and the other from Amir-designate
Shaykh Saad Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah calling for a special
parliamentary session to allow him to take the
constitutionally-mandated Amiri oath. Al-Zalzalah noted
that, procedurally, Amiri requests should come through the
Council of Ministers, which is chaired by Prime Minister
Shyakh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, widely seen as the
exclusive candidate to replace Shaykh Saad, rather than
directly from the Amir. According to Al-Zalzalah, National
Assembly Speaker Jassem Al-Khorafi requested a meeting with
Shaykh Saad to explain the proper procedures, but was turned
down.


3. (C) Al-Zalzalah also outlined a couple of scenarios that
could throw the country into a "constitutional crisis." What
if the requisite two-thirds majority (44 votes) in Parliament
needed to remove the Amir for health reasons was not
obtained? What if the 16 Government Ministers, who are ex
officio MPs, did not attend the special Amiri oath-taking
session, if held? He admitted that he could not answer his
own questions, but speculated that constitutional issues
would be referred to the Constitutional Court. He expressed
frustration that the Al-Sabah family had not resolved its
internal differences prior to the Amir's death, but he was
confident that family members would do so soon. Al-Zalzalah
said MPs would meet on January 22 to determine how to respond
to the conflicting requests. (Note: The latest reports are
that the Council of Ministers was also meeting January 22 to
prepare a medical report on Shaykh Saad, which it intends to
submit to Parliament to facilitate the activation of Article
3 of the Succession Law. However, there are also reports
that Shaykh Saad's doctor will not sign the report. The
doctor was dumped as Health Minister by Shaykh Sabah last
year. End note.)

Al-Salems and "Younger Shaykhs" Demand Their Turn
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Dr. Saad Bin Teflah, professor at Kuwait University
and a former Minister of Information, told Poloffs at his
diwaniya that the current internal family dispute was
exacerbated by the "younger Shaykhs" of both the Jaber and
Salem branches who feared being edged out of power by a
long-term compromise arrangement on succession. Without
naming names, he insinuated that Energy Minister Shaykh Ahmed
Al-Fahd Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah -- only 42, but widely
rumored to be corrupt and ambitious -- was part of the
problem, as well as former ministers not from the Al-Jaber
branch who were replaced when Shaykh Sabah became Prime

KUWAIT 00000200 002 OF 002


Minister in 2003. (Note: Shaykh Mohammed Al-Khalid Al-Hamad
Al-Sabah was replaced as Minister of Interior by Shaykh
Sabah. Other contacts have suggested he is one of the key
family members resisting Shaykh Sabah's assumption of the
amirship. End note.)


5. (C) According to Bin Teflah, Al-Salems feel it is their
turn to exercise political power, even through a physically
incapacitated Amir: a situation they argue is similar to the
Jabers' exercise of political power under the ailing Amir
Shaykh Jaber. Bin Teflah claimed some Al-Salems would even
like to issue a decree stripping Shaykh Sabah of his power.
(Comment: The de facto ruler of Kuwait for the past five
years, Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah has considerable power and
broad public support. It is highly unlikely that he could be
removed from his current position or realistically prevented
from becoming Amir. End comment.)

Kuwaitis Disappointed, But Trust Constitutional Process
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Among all the rumors, gossip, and speculation in
Kuwait about ruling family negotiations over succession,
there is a common sense of disappointment that the Al-Sabah
family let things deteriorate to this point. Kuwaitis
respect the ruling family and defer to its members on
succession issues, but feel embarrassed that the family's
dirty laundry would be aired in such a public and humiliating
way. Bin Teflah noted, however, that there is a positive
side to the current situation: public debates focus on the
constitutionality of succession procedures, an indication,
according to Bin Teflah, of the depth of political freedom in
the country and the commitment to upholding the Constitution.


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