FREEDOM AGENDA: RACING THE CLOCK TO PREPARE FOR KUWAIT'S

UNCLAS KUWAIT 001915

SIPDIS

SIPDIS, NOFORN

FOR NEA/ARP, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: RACING THE CLOCK TO PREPARE FOR KUWAIT'S
JUNE 29 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

REF: A) KUWAIT 1844
B) KUWAIT 1833 AND PREVIOUS


1. Summary: Debate over the Amir's May 21 decision to dissolve
Parliament is already fading as focus shifts to the June 29
parliamentary elections. Though candidate registration begins
officially May 25, many prospective candidates have already launched
their campaigns. According to one estimate, spending on the
campaigns is expected to reach 100 million KD (approximately $346
million). Accounting for 57% of the total number of voters, women
will have a significant impact on the elections, though few Kuwaitis
expect a female candidate to be elected. Many of Kuwait's tribes
have started preparing for primaries to choose one representative
from the tribe to represent them in the elections. (Note: Though
officially prohibited, the Government does not prevent pre-election
primaries. End note.) Several political associations from similar
ideological currents have begun consultations to coordinate on
candidates to support. A liberal columnist made a case for
international observers. End summary.


2. Only days after the Amir dissolved Parliament (ref B),
candidates are already gearing up for the June 29 elections and have
begun staking out election headquarters in empty lots, holding
meetings with key supporters, and hitting the diwaniya (discussion
salon) circuit. The Council of Ministers is expected to begin
registration of candidates on May 25. According to Article 24 of
the Elections Law, applications for candidacy must be submitted in
writing to the electoral constituency's police headquarters within
ten days of the start of the registration period. Already numerous
public figures have announced their intention to run for the
elections, including several women.

Parliamentary Elections Equals Big Business
--------------


3. The Arabic daily Al-Qabas reported May 23 that "commercial
market sources" estimate spending on the upcoming election campaigns
to reach a total of 100 million KD (approximately $346 million) at
an average rate of 3 million KD ($10 million) per day to meet the
requirements of advertisements, campaign headquarters,
transportation, and other campaign expenses. The sources added that
a considerable number of the potential candidates are liquidating
their stock portfolios at the Kuwait Stock Exchange in order to
ensure sufficient funds to cover their electoral expenses. (Note:
Actual data on costs and financing methods are rare. End note.)

Optimism, but Slim Chance for Female Candidates
-------------- --


4. According to the most recent electoral rolls, the total number
of registered voters in Kuwait is 340,248 (194,910 females and
145,338 males). Most contacts believe the chance of a woman being
elected to Parliament is slim, noting that Kuwaiti women do not have
adequate time to put together effective campaigns against men who
have 44 years of experience. They also argue that local customs and
traditions, such as male-dominated diwaniyas, favor Kuwaiti men and
restrict women's ability to reach wider audiences. Women, who
account for 57% of the total number of voters, are nonetheless
expected to play an important role in the elections. They are not
necessarily going to favor female candidates, and are likely to
follow voting patterns related to local interests.

Tribes Entering the Fray with Election Primaries
-------------- ---


5. Three Kuwaiti tribes published separate ads in the Arabic daily
Al-Rai Al-Aam on May 23 inviting would-be tribal candidates to
contact that tribe's leadership to arrange for meetings that aim at
"coordination and consultation," an indication that the tribes
intend to hold primaries to choose one representative from the tribe
to represent them in the elections. (Note: According to Article 45
of the Elections Law, tribal and sectarian primaries are prohibited
and punishable by a fine and up to three years in prison, however,
the Government seldom enforces this law. End note.) In a related
development, the Arabic daily Al-Watan reported May 23 that
consultations have intensified between some political associations,
specifically the Salafi Movement and the Islamic Constitutional
Movement (ICM),to coordinate on which candidates will run where,
instead of competing to the detriment of both associations.

Liberal Columnist: Why This Election Is Different
-------------- --------------


6. In a May 23 editorial published in Al-Rai Al-Aam, liberal
columnist Ahmed Al-Deyain stressed the need to invite international
observers to monitor the upcoming parliamentary elections, arguing
that this is not interference in Kuwait's domestic affairs. "The
June 29 elections will be different from any past elections
witnessed by Kuwait" for four reasons, he claimed. First, the
political climate surrounding the upcoming elections is different

from any former climate (i.e. there is a popular counter-corruption
and pro-reform movement and momentum that crystallized during the
tumultuous "We Want Five [electoral constituencies]" rallies).
Second, there is a significant amount of political rhetoric that is
critical of the ruling regime and anti-corruption and pro-reform,
which will necessarily reflect in the campaign themes of many of the
candidates. Third, there is tangible popular dissatisfaction and
resentment as a result of the steady deterioration of negotiations
on electoral reform, ineffective administration, "flagrant
governmental maneuvers" against reform, and the prevalence of
corruption. Fourth, the participation of women for the first time
in parliamentary elections and the significant increase in the size
of the electoral base will have a serious and influential impact on
the conduct and outcome of parliamentary elections.

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For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
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LEBARON