KUWAITI STRATEGIC EXPERT: SMILES FOR RAFSANJANI,

C O N F I D E N T I A L KUWAIT 001346

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP AND NEA/IR, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR
ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2016
TAGS: PREL IR KU KUWAIT IRAN RELATIONS
SUBJECT: KUWAITI STRATEGIC EXPERT: SMILES FOR RAFSANJANI,
BUT GOK PREPARING CONTINGENCY PLANS

REF: A. KUWAIT 1342


B. KUWAIT 1319

C. KUWAIT 86

Classified By: DCM Matt Tueller for reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Dr. Sami Al-Faraj, Director of the Kuwait Center for
Strategic Studies (KCSS),a private research institute, told
Poloff April 18 that Chairman of Iran's Expediency Council
Hashemi Rafsanjani, who concludes a three-day visit to Kuwait
April 18, conveyed a veiled threat to the Kuwaiti leadership.
While assuring the GOK Iran's nuclear program was for
peaceful purposes and Iran did not anticipate U.S. military
action, Al-Faraj said Rafsanjani cautioned, "Our actions
depend on your actions." (Comment: Al-Faraj attributed this
information to newspaper reports on Rafsanjani's visit, not
first hand information. End comment.) Al-Faraj believed
Kuwait would "play the diplomatic card to the very end," but
in the meantime was preparing for the worst case scenario.


2. (C) "Despite the smiles (between Kuwaiti and Iranian
officials)," Al-Faraj claimed Kuwait was taking the Iranian
nuclear issue "seriously" and was actively preparing
contingency plans for a possible U.S.-Iran military
confrontation. According to him, the GOK was particularly
concerned about an Iranian strike on U.S. forces in southern
Kuwait and the impact on the nearby Shuwaiba industrial area;
terrorist attacks by Iranian agents or by Iranian
sympathizers acting alone; and, of greatest concern, large
scale demonstrations by either Iranian expatriates in Kuwait
or Kuwaitis sympathetic to the Iranian cause, a situation
Al-Faraj claimed the GOK had "no idea" how to handle. "This
is our nightmare," he concluded.


3. (C) Al-Faraj, who regularly advises GOK ministries on
strategic issues, claimed the Kuwait Institute for Scientific
Research (KISR) had recently taken radiation samples around
the country to establish a baseline to use in measuring any
possible future radiation contamination. In addition, he
said Kuwait was stockpiling medical supplies for emergency
services and would conduct military maneuvers April 30 to
test new computer systems, communications equipment, and
operating procedures. Al-Faraj noted that KCSS had recently
completed a study examining five probable outcomes of the
Iranian nuclear crisis and outlining possible Kuwaiti
contingency plans. Al-Faraj claimed the study was provided
to senior Kuwaiti military and Ministry of Interior officials
and would be used in developing training simulations.


4. (C) Bio Comment: As Director of KCSS, Al-Faraj regularly
teaches training courses for Kuwaiti military and MOI
officials. Al-Faraj also writes studies on key strategic
issues, which he claims are used by GOK officials for
planning purposes. While closely connected with Kuwait's
strategic community, Al-Faraj does not speak for the GOK, nor
does he appear to have regular, direct access to key Kuwaiti
decision makers. Al-Faraj told Poloff he would visit Iran
next week at the invitation of the Iranian Expediency Council.

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For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
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LEBARON