TREASURY UNDER SECRETARY ADAMS' VISIT TO MALAYSIA:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KUALA LUMPUR 000613

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

TREASURY FOR OASIA AND IRS
STATE FOR USTR - WEISEL AND JENSEN
STATE FOR FEDERAL RESERVE AND EXIMBANK
STATE FOR FEDERAL RESERVE SAN FRANCISCO - TCURRAN
USDOC FOR 4430/MAC/EAP/JBAKER
GENEVA FOR USTR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2016
TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD EINV MY
SUBJECT: TREASURY UNDER SECRETARY ADAMS' VISIT TO MALAYSIA:
FRANK CONVERSATION ABOUT THE RINGGIT

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher J. LaFleur,
for reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) In meetings with the government of Malaysia's
financial leadership, Treasury Under Secretary Tim Adams
sparked a frank discussion about Malaysia's exchange rate and
foreign reserve policies, including a 90 minute dialogue with
Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Zeti Aziz. Adams also
discussed global imbalances, protectionist trends in the U.S.
Congress, and the crisis the world economic system would face
if the U.S. economy were to rebalance too abruptly. Adams
asked Zeti to pass these messages to her colleagues in China
and told her that he would do the same. Zeti emphasized her
concerns over rapid movement of funds due to speculation and
the risks this posed for a small, highly open economy such as
Malaysia's.


2. (C) Comment: Zeti's policy mindset is dominated by her
experience of the 1997 financial crisis. She clearly is not
prepared to introduce a fully floating exchange rate. She
views ringgit stability as being important for Malaysia's
export-led economy. Zeti did agree that the current global
imbalances, in particular the United States' current account
deficit, cannot be sustained and that adjustment will happen,
whether abrupt or soft. Although she recognizes the danger
this poses to Malaysia, she does not seem inclined to change
course in any fundamental way. With United States-Malaysia
Free Trade Negotiations beginning this summer, post
recommends Treasury continue this useful, behind-the-scenes
dialogue as the best vehicle for influencing Malaysia's
currency and financial policies. End Comment.

Bank Negara: Stability In Defense of Social Goals
--------------


3. (SBU) Bank Negara Governor Zeti Aziz emphasized the need
for stability in her discussion with Under Secretary Adams.
She cautioned that Malaysia is small, open economy and cannot
afford to risk too much volatility. She argued that if
exchange rates were to move too fast, it could be
destabilizing. Without Bank Negara's actions to smooth the
transition from the peg, the rate could have depreciated to
RM 3.90 or RM 4.00 to the dollar. Conversely, the ringgit
could have appreciated to RM 3.00. Zeti asserted that a 3.00
to 4.00 shift is too large for a small country. Her
experience during the 1997 financial crisis has made her wary
of too much volatility. Referring to that experience, she
noted: "There were individual transactions of $300 million
and $500 million each. It overwhelmed the system and the
currency depreciated by 40%. The bank managed reserves
carefully to face this speculative onslaught. Lots of banks
were making lots of large orders. The stock market fell by
70%. Bank Negara had to
restore stability."


4. (SBU) Zeti acknowledged that Malaysia communicated with
China when it depegged the ringgit from the U.S. dollar. She
said Bank Negara was forced to act to prevent huge
speculative flows once China moved, as there were large
levels of funds held in deposits, treasury bills, and
short-term paper instruments waiting for the exchange rate to
change. On July 21, 2005, there was an orderly transition in
Malaysia's exchange rate regime and reserves stood at
approximately $80 billion. In an August report to the GOM,
Bank Negara identified calls on reserves and how flows might
go the other way. As short-term speculative funds flowed out
of Malaysia during the last half of the year, Bank Negara's
reserves dropped by $12 billion in three months. Zeti said
that the rate bounced from RM 3.8 per U.S. dollar to RM 3.74
and then back to RM 3.79. (Note: the rate now stands at
approximately RM 3.70 to the U.S. dollar). The outflows
subsided by December and the currency has appreciated
gradually in recent months.


Financial Sector Obligations
--------------


5. (SBU) Zeti highlighted Malaysia's multi-ethnic character

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and linked economic stability to political stability. She
related how Malaysian banks since the earliest days have had
little town branches. "Obviously, this is less profitable
for the banks and they don't like it. But there is a need
for a formal system to give access to little towns so that
there is job creation and no unemployment or crime. I have
been challenged or criticized on this issue. But I tell the
banks that you have a stable social environment for growth
and benefit from that positive environment," Zeti said.


6. (U) Zeti then launched into a critique of Citibank and
its for-profit style, relating how it had posted a profit in
1997 when the rest of the nation was undergoing a crisis.
(Comment: Zeti mentions Citibank's actions during the crisis
in every meeting with U.S. officials. She obviously feels
very strongly that foreign banks, such as Citibank, are not
to be trusted entirely because they put profit motive and
their responsibilities to their shareholders ahead of the
Malaysian socio-economic agenda. End Comment.) She
explained that foreign companies in Malaysia deliver high
returns for their parent companies and shareholders. In
2005, Zeti continued, Citibank's after-tax profits exceeded
its capital in Malaysia, in part due to tax concessions.


7. (SBU) Zeti described Malaysia's Financial Services Master
Plan (FSMP),which she said follows a Swedish model. In
1997, Malaysia had 71 banks; now there are 29. As of 2006,
Bank Negara has relaxed most of the capital requirements and
completed a round of mandated bank mergers. A new waive of
mergers is taking place today with the recent consolidation
of Bank Bumiputra and CIMB into Bumiputra Commerce and
Bumiputra Commerce's very recent hostile take over of
Southern Bank. Bank Negara also is interested in capacity
building, adoption of best practices, and risk management,
often based on the performance of foreign banks operating in
Malaysia. Zeti maintained Bank Negara is pursuing
liberalization at a measured pace, pushing some reforms ahead
of the 2007 deadline for full liberalizations. (Comment:
The FSMP never actually specifies dates for full
liberalization nor exact benchmarks for what that
liberalization might mean for international players. Most
local observers assume that Bank Negara will a
ctually slide the date from 2007 to a later implementation
date. End comment.)

A Global Problem and Treasury's Role
-------------- -


8. (U) Under Secretary Adams lauded Bank Negara's move to
depeg and adopt a new exchange rate mechanism on July 21. He
said that it was difficult for Americans to understand the
scarring effect of 1997. He then described some of the
economic challenges that the U.S. faces: huge global
imbalances and a U.S. current account deficit of 6.5-7%. He
explained that he is trying to figure out how the system can
sustain itself, and believes that it is obvious that there
will be an adjustment. He made clear his preference to let
the markets work and to use government policy to help the
markets' imperfections.


9. (C) Acknowledging that the United States must raise
national savings, raise household savings, and reduce the
deficit, Adams called for flexibility in exchange rates
globally. Adams explained that other nations -- Japan,
Europe, and China -- have been saying that it is the United
States' job to balance the global economy, but if only the
U.S. adjusts it would produce a serious contraction in the
global economy. Adams noted that it has been estimated that
the U.S. would have to contract 6% to balance the external
account by 2010, which would be the biggest contraction since
the Great Depression. The United States does not want to see
such a sharp adjustment. Other nations need to "look at what
it would do to your economies. This has to be a shared job,"
related Adams.

Don't Single Out Malaysia
--------------


10. (SBU) Zeti, while acknowledging Adams' comments,
countered that, although the U.S. has a current account
deficit and Malaysia a current account surplus, one must look
at Malaysian outflows in terms of profits and dividends

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flowing out from Malaysia to the U.S. United States
companies in Malaysia have been sending profits out. They
create jobs and there is a multiplier effect but capital is
still flowing out. Adams, in turn, asked why was there so
much Malaysian investment flowing into the U.S.


11. (SBU) Zeti said Malaysia is trying to adjust in two
ways: there is more domestic and regional consumption and it
has floated its exchange rate. She explained that Malaysia
has seen increasing domestic demand. With a larger middle
class market in Malaysia and regionally, too, the middle
class is buying more and more of Malaysia's goods and
services. Still, the region must integrate better.
Malaysia has also floated its exchange rate. Zeti asserted
her displeasure that Malaysia was singled out as a possible
currency manipulator and Singapore was not. She related that
Singapore operates in the same way as Malaysia but, due to
good public relations, they were not criticized by the U.S.
Zeti found this criticism very unfair. Adams promised that
Malaysia would not be singled out in the upcoming Treasury
exchange rate report.


Tell Your Friends In China
--------------


12. (C) Adams asked Zeti to "tell your friends in China that
we need to see more movement. We are going to lose the
policy battle and disrupt vital trade relations and
bi-lateral relations." He urged changes in three
components of Chinese policy - exchange rates, domestic
demand, and modernization of financial services - but noted
that the exchange rate has become symbolic in Washington of
what is seen as an unfair relationship. Zeti responded,
"China is going to move. Because Malaysia's financial
liberalization is so institutionalized, Malaysia was more
confident. China needs time to become confident."

Meeting with New Ministers
--------------


13. (U) Adams also met with Effendi Norwawi, Minister in the
Prime Minister's Officer in charge of economic planning and
Awang Adek, Deputy Minister of Finance, focusing on the
upcoming FTA negotiations in both meetings. Minister Effendi
explained that his biggest fear would be the FTAs impact on
local firms. He explained that the Prime Minister and the
government are behind the FTA. All agree that it is a
critical step to take, but there are sensitivities. Effendi
asserted that there may be synergy between FTA negotiations
and 9th Malaysia Plan initiatives -- for example, in
technical education. Effendi would like to see the U.S. and
Malaysia focus on these synergies during negotiations.


14. (U) Deputy Finance Minister Awang Adek mirrored Governor
Zeti's concern with stability, and similarly drew a
connection between economic and political stability. In
addition to exchange rate stability, he said that Malaysia
hopes to see more oil price stability, even if that means
lower prices for Malaysian's energy exports. He expressed
concern that Malaysia is not as competitive for foreign
investment as in the past. "What used to come easily to us
is not coming as easily as before. We are not at the center
of growth," he said. He also noted the government's efforts
to control inflation, suggesting that Bank Negara would start
to be more proactive in raising interest rates. He
discounted, however, a suggestion from Under Secretary Adams
that ringgit appreciation might help with inflation, adding
that this had not been a consideration in the decision to
move away from a fixed exchange rate.

Comment
--------------


15. (SBU) Zeti's views on capital flows and the danger of
speculation due to a volatile exchange rate were formed
during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. In her
conversation with Under Secretary Adams, she was visibly
uncomfortable with the idea of allowing the ringgit to
experience short-term fluctuations. In addition, Zeti is
also wary of foreign financial institutions because their
choices and actions are governed by profit motive and

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responsibility to shareholders rather than Malaysia's
development agenda. When asked to pick between allowing the
market to operate freely and Malaysia's development goals,
Zeti will always pick the latter (or someone above her will
pick it for her).


16. (SBU) Under Secretary Adams' visit sparked a small
amount of public discussion about the value of the ringgit,
with reporters questioning Zeti, Minister of Finance (II) Nor
Yakcop and, even, Prime Minister Abdullah. Even if Malaysia
does not take action in the way that the United States would
wish, Adams sent a clear message to the financial leadership
about our concern with Malaysia's policy stance. Further,
whether Zeti agrees with Adams' proposed actions to solve
global imbalances is unknown, it is clear that she recognizes
the danger an abrupt adjustment holds for Malaysia's economy.



17. (SBU) Zeti clearly was miffed at the mention of Malaysia
in November's Foreign Exchange Report and will expect that
Malaysia not "be singled out" again. Maintaining a quiet
dialogue between Treasury and Bank Negara officials is likely
to have greater influence on Malaysia's policies than public
"jaw boning." End Comment.


18. (U) Under Secretary Adams cleared this cable.
LAFLEUR