Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KIRKUK80
2006-04-07 14:07:00
SECRET
REO Kirkuk
Cable title:  

MORE PROTESTS AHEAD IN NORTHERN IRAQ

Tags:  PINS PGOV KDEM KCOR KISL PINR IZ IR 
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VZCZCXRO6083
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHMOS
DE RUEHKUK #0080/01 0971407
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O R 071407Z APR 06
FM REO KIRKUK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0595
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD IMMEDIATE 0559
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
RUEHKUK/REO KIRKUK 0623
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KIRKUK 000080 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

BAGHDAD FOR POL, PAO, ROL COORDINATOR, NCT, IRMO, USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/7/2016
TAGS: PINS PGOV KDEM KCOR KISL PINR IZ IR
SUBJECT: MORE PROTESTS AHEAD IN NORTHERN IRAQ

REF: (A) Kirkuk 78 , (B) Kirkuk 79 , (C) Kirkuk 69

KIRKUK 00000080 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Scott Dean, Acting Regional Coordinator, , REO
Kirkuk, DoS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KIRKUK 000080

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

BAGHDAD FOR POL, PAO, ROL COORDINATOR, NCT, IRMO, USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/7/2016
TAGS: PINS PGOV KDEM KCOR KISL PINR IZ IR
SUBJECT: MORE PROTESTS AHEAD IN NORTHERN IRAQ

REF: (A) Kirkuk 78 , (B) Kirkuk 79 , (C) Kirkuk 69

KIRKUK 00000080 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Scott Dean, Acting Regional Coordinator, , REO
Kirkuk, DoS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (S) SUMMARY. A freelance press interpreter says some who
participated in the violent Halabjah protests could now be
inclined to become KRG insurgents because the PUK is giving them
few other options. Our contact said he had heard reports that
some protestors had fled to the mountains or Iran; he said that
this was the first time protestors against the KRG had sought
refuge in the mountains. He said the PUK's response to the
Halabjah events reminded the Kurdish public of the former
regime. Students from the PUK-administered territory were
likely to stage future protests, especially in Kalar and across
several cities when school was out. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) This is the third in a series of cables reporting an
in-depth look at the March 16 violent protests in Halabjah.
This cable discusses prospects for violence elsewhere in the
Kurdistan Region. The other two cables (refs A and B) reported
on the events leading up to and during the day of the protests
and on the subsequent security crackdown. RC(A) and IPAO on
March 28 met with Yerivan Adham Sa'id, a free lance press
interpreter and native of Halabjah, who was present during the
entirety of the Halabjah events and supported the
demonstrations. Sa'id was the freelance interpreter for the
March 17 New York Times story, a subsequent National Public
Radio story and was a major source for reftels.

Hard Response Creating Dissidents
--------------


3. (S) Sa'id said that some of those who participated in the
Halabjah protest could now be inclined to become KRG insurgents
because they had few other options. The students were ambitious
and politically active, yet the KRG was now branding them as
criminals, prohibiting them from gaining jobs in the future.

Sa'id said he had heard reports that some protestors had fled to
the mountains or Iran; he said that this was the first time
protestors against the KRG had sought refuge in the mountains.
The PUK appears to be pursuing a tough response to the
protestors. Sa'id said PUK officials during a March 22 or 23
press statement had used words like "revenge" and "severe
punishment." Sa'id said such language reminded people of the
Saddam Hussayn regime. Sa'id said that KRG PM Nechirvan Barzani
further angered people in Halabjah by publicly saying on March
27 that the KRG had nothing to do with Halabjah reconstruction:
the Iraqi Government was responsible for compensating Halabjah
victims and rebuilding the city.

Protests Likely Elsewhere
--------------


4. (C) When we asked Sa'id what was inciting Kurdish
university students to protest, he said students saw the
differences between those who benefited from the government and
those who did not. He said most Kurdish students attended
college in the big cities where, often for the first time, they
experienced upgraded services and came into contact with family
members of government leaders driving new cars. The students
then returned to their homes with nothing to do and angered at
the economic bifurcation.


5. (C) When asked where we could anticipate more
demonstrations, Sa'id pointed to Chamchamal and especially Kalar
because services were poor, and students from there spoke of
protesting. Sa'id said he had heard reports of students'
wanting to demonstrate around April 7 or 8, during the
commemoration of the former regime's 1988 Anfal campaign. Kalar
students demonstrated on September 14 - the day before Kurdish
universities' first day of classes - and Sai'd said they were
determined to regroup because the situation had not improved.
He thought the cities of Ranya (two hours northeast of As
Sulaymaniyah, near the Iranian border) and Darbanikhan (45 miles
west of As Sulaymaniyah) also were vulnerable because the
government had neglected services there, due to corruption.
Sa'id said students were likely to demonstrate during their
June-August summer break.

PUK Students More Politically Active
--------------


6. (C) When asked why the majority of student demonstrations
were occurring on PUK-administered territory, Sa'id judged that
PUK supporters viewed the PUK as more corrupt than the KDP. PUK
supporters were upset that Barzani and the KDP were taking
control of all of the Kurdistan Region, while Talabani remained

KIRKUK 00000080 002.2 OF 002


in Baghdad. Sa'id said that the students saw the PUK as more
corrupt than the KDP: PUK officials were taking as much as they
could now because they feared losing their positions to the KDP.
The KDP also had been more diligent in providing services,
roads, and buildings than the PUK. PUK supporters had expressed
frustration that their legal system was unclear and
inconsistent. For example, the KRG in As Sulaymaniyah had a law
that sanctioned the death penalty when people destroyed state
property, yet Talabani refused to sign Saddam's death sentence.


7. (C) Moreover, Sa'id said the PUK had more internal problems
than the KDP. The Kurdish people referred to the PUK as the
"Three Emirates": Jalal Talabani, Nushirwan Mustafa, and Kosrat
Rasul. Sa'id thought that if the PUK eliminated its corruption,
the party would split. People had hoped Barham Salih would end
PUK corruption, but that hope had faded after his move to
Baghdad. Nushirwan Mustafa was the PUK leader most inclined to
eradicate the party's corruption; Rasul was more traditional.
Talabani, Mustafa, and Rasul as of March 28 had said nothing
publicly regarding the Halabjah incident.

Comment
--------------


8. (S) We often have heard that a new graduate must have a
party affiliation to get a professional job in the Kurdistan
Region. However, we cannot confirm Sa'id's claim that some
protestors now may feel their hopes for a career are over, and
they must head to Iran or permanently oppose the PUK and KDP.
If true, that would be significant, but it is probably too early
to judge how ham-fisted the parties choose to be.


9. (C) We doubt the PUK expects the KDP to take over the KRG
or is basing actions on that. We suspect Sa'id thinks the grass
is greener in KDP areas. In reality, the lack of protests in
KDP areas may simply reflect that the KDP has been more
effective at preventing or suppressing dissent. Sa'id's
comments confirm what we have heard from senior PUK staffers
that some party supporters resent Talabani's role as Iraqi
President and his lack of focus on the north. Sa'id's take that
Kurdish universities are training grounds for political activism
is plausible.


10. (C) We since have heard that any protests may come on
various anniversaries later in April, rather than April 7-8.
University breaks (which come, e.g., for commemorations)
probably have as much to do with these protests as location or
lack of delivery on services; we therefore can anticipate more
demonstrations in the summer when students return home from
school.
ORESTE