(SBU) TURCOMAN FRONT FEELS CHEATED, BUT SAYS ELECTION A STEP

UNCLAS KIRKUK 000019

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/I

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: (SBU) TURCOMAN FRONT FEELS CHEATED, BUT SAYS ELECTION A STEP
FORWARD

REF: 05 KIRKUK 284, 289


1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION: Iraqi Turcoman Front (ITF)
leader Sadettin Ergech called on Regional Coordinator (RC) and
UK Consul General January 28. Ergech was the only person
running as a Turcoman who won a seat in the December national
legislative elections (some Turcomans running with UIA and other
lists were also elected). Ergech and his delegation complained
that the allocation of compensatory seats was unfair, but they
did not seem to grasp the formula. They appealed for US and UK
help in getting the ITF a second (compensatory) seat in the
Council of Representatives; this appeal met with no sympathy.
Encouragingly, the ITF's bottom line was that the elections were
a step forward for Iraq. END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION.


2. (SBU) At the time of the elections, the ITF was very upset
about alleged Kurdish fraud (reftels). Ergech and other
Turcoman leaders claimed their young people, disillusioned with
them, were on the verge of taking up arms to defend Turcoman
interests. In the January 28 meeting, Ergech exhibited
conflicting sentiments: he was still unhappy at what he called
massive fraud by the Kurds and unfair allocation of seats by the
electoral commission (IECI); he still claimed his followers were
deeply dissatisfied; at the same time, he was visibly proud of
having been elected to the Council of Representatives. His main
objective for the meeting was to enlist US and UK help to gain a
compensatory seat for the ITF, in order to reflect more
accurately the Turcoman share of Iraq's population.


3. (SBU) RC and UK CG stressed that:

-- the international election experts had concluded that there
was electoral fraud but that it did not substantially affect the
outcome;

-- there is no evidence that the IECI misapplied the formula for
allocating compensatory seats. (RC explained the formula at
some length, showing that inevitably somebody wins a higher
percentage of seats than votes, and vice versa. As long as the
formula is applied faithfully for all parties, it is not
unfair.)


4. (SBU) RC quoted one of the IECI's FAQ to the effect that in
an election, there is no guaranteed representation for
minorities or anyone else, it all depends on how the voting
goes.


5. (SBU) As the meeting drew to a close, the ITF delegation
affirmed that, for all its faults, the December election had
been a step forward in the establishment of democracy in Iraq.
They said they would remain engaged in the political process.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: The ITF leaders seem to have come into the
meeting without understanding the formula for allocating
compensatory seats, and without grasping the more general point
that whenever you draw a line, somebody is going to just barely
cross it and somebody is going to fall just short - the problem
is inherent in having a line, it is not a matter of where you
draw it. (We have encountered similar incomprehension on the
part of some surprisingly senior Kurdish figures.)


7. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: RC was left with the impression
that Ergech and his colleagues were probing to see if they could
improve their position in the Council of Representatives, and to
see how the US and UK assessed the elections. It is possible
they actually learned something from the discussion.

BELL