Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KIRKUK121
2006-06-29 16:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL
REO Kirkuk
Cable title:  

ASSYRIAN LEADERS ON ARTICLE 140, SECURITY

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KISL KIRF 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4979
RR RUEHKUK
DE RUEHKUK #0121/01 1801621
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 291621Z JUN 06
FM REO KIRKUK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0672
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0634
INFO RUEHWW/BAGHDAD GULF WAR COLLECTIVE
RUEHKUK/REO KIRKUK 0700
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIRKUK 000121 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

BAGHDAD FOR POL, ECON, IRMO, NCT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KISL KIRF
SUBJECT: ASSYRIAN LEADERS ON ARTICLE 140, SECURITY

CLASSIFIED BY: Jim Bigus, PRT Team Leader, Kirkuk, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIRKUK 000121

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

BAGHDAD FOR POL, ECON, IRMO, NCT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KISL KIRF
SUBJECT: ASSYRIAN LEADERS ON ARTICLE 140, SECURITY

CLASSIFIED BY: Jim Bigus, PRT Team Leader, Kirkuk, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

1. (C) Summary: PRT team leader met with Assyrian Democratic
Movement Kirkuk Chairman Sargon Lazar on June 20 and Assyrian
Archbishop Louis Sako on June 21 to discuss implementation of
Article 140. Lazar said there were rumors of a falling out
between President Talabani and PM Maliki over Article 140
implementation. Both Lazar and Sako believed violence could be
avoided if the Kurds managed the Article 140 implementation
process transparently and reached out to the Arabs and Turkmen.
The Arabs would be the hardest to win over. Involving the UN in
the census and referendum would give the process credibility
with non-Kurds. Lazar saw the recent uptick in violence in
Kirkuk as related to maneuvering over Article 140 but Sako
blamed it on terrorists who had been pushed out of other areas.
Sako claimed more young Muslims were expressing interest in
Christianity as a reaction to the violence of Muslim extremists.
End Summary.

Article 140
--------------


2. (C) Lazar opened the meeting by saying people were tired of
talking about Article 140 and wanted the process to begin so
they could start shaping the negotiations. After two years of
talking people had lost faith in Baghdad and Kirkuk officials.
Just getting some sort of process started would restore faith
and possibly reduce tensions, which were growing while the
process was on hold. The exact structure of a process was not as
important as transparency. UN supervision would contribute
greatly to peoples' faith in the process and Lazar hoped the
government would request it. Getting an accurate census was
also critical.


3. (C) Lazar said he had heard there was a falling out between
President Talabani and PM Maliki over the composition of the
committee Maliki had called for to implement Article 140. One
controversial choice was Communist Party leader Hamid Majid
Musa, whom the Turkmen objected to because of his role in
killing Turkmen in 1958. Lazar said he did not know if the
falling out was serious or simply part of the initial bargaining

process. He predicted forming a committee acceptable to all
sides would be difficult and take some time.


4. (C) Another problem, Lazar said, was that the ethnic groups
in Kirkuk suffered from internal division. The Kurds were the
best organized but even they were split between PUK and KDP. If
there could be one representative speaking authoritatively for
the Turkmen, Arabs, and Kurds a solution would be found
relatively quickly. Asked if there was any appeal to non-Kurds
to Kirkuk's joining the KRG because of improved security, Lazar
said the "Arabs will not be ruled by Kurds and will not think
about it any further than that." For others, continuing KDP-PUK
tension did not give confidence that incorporation into the KRG
would guarantee security. Turkmen might be more willing to
compromise. Their neighborhoods were geographically distinct
and perhaps they would accept some sort of special autonomous
status for their regions within the KRG or some other special
status arrangement. If they were to accept it, perhaps the
Arabs could be persuaded to accept something similar.


5. (C) Sako said he was optimistic about the Article 140
implementation process. People were tired of violence after 35
years. The Kurds, who were "now the majority," were smart
enough to manage the process though they were making mistakes.
They should be careful not to make provocative speeches, not to
say on TV that Kirkuk was Kurdish. They especially should not
talk about expelling anyone but rather offer more attractive
compensation packages. "They have the money. Everybody knows
the Kurds will do everything to win. It all depends on the
manner." The Coalition could help with public information
campaigns about the census and referendum. Winning over the
Arabs was the key element and most difficult. The Kurds were
already working privately with the shaykhs and Turkmen factions
to divide the opposition. The Turkmen Front had already changed
its position to favor the referendum.

Security
--------------


6. (SBU) Lazar said business life in Kirkuk had not yet fully
recovered from the series of VBIED attacks following the death
of al-Zarqawi. There were rumors of more VBIEDs being prepared
and many shop owners and markets were staying closed. Lazar
believed the VBIED activity was related to Article 140. "Why so
many here, why not Salah ad-Din?" Kirkuk was experiencing a
"security vacancy, no one is in charge, there is no loyalty of
the citizens to each other." Lazar said there were only 5,000 -
6,000 Assyrians left in Kirkuk, the majority having moved to
Europe, the U.S. and Australia. Any Assyrian who had the means
to do so would leave because of security and "no trust in a
government that does not represent them."

KIRKUK 00000121 002 OF 002




7. (SBU) Like Lazar, Sako said that business in Kirkuk had
slowed following the series of VBIED attacks but attributed the
upsurge of violence to terrorists who had been pushed out of
other areas. He noted that Kirkuk was suffering a brain drain
because of the security situation, especially kidnappings, with
30,000 USD being the average ransom price. Nonetheless Sako was
optimistic on the security front, saying the death of al-Zarqawi
was the beginning of the end of the insurgency and that he
expected terrorism in the Kirkuk area "will finish after one
more year."

Young Muslims Interested in Christianity
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Sako said the churches recently were being approached by
young Muslims asking for literature on Christianity and
sometimes asking to be baptized. These requests were refused so
as not to upset the Muslims. He thought many of these young
people were appalled by the violence done in the name of Islam
and were looking for alternative paths to spirituality. He
noted that a bumper sticker showing the shahada (profession of
the faith) with a sword, taken to be an endorsement of Muslim
religious violence, was becoming more popular in town. Muslims
needed more education about their own religion so as not to be
manipulated by extremist religious leaders.

Bio Notes
--------------


9. (SBU) Luis Sako is the archbishop of the Chaldonian Catholic
Church in Kirkuk. He has good relations with all the
communities of Kirkuk. He has a PhD in Philosophy and Theology
and is a specialist on Islam. He participates in academic
conferences abroad and in interfaith conferences with Muslim
religious leaders. He is editor-in-chief of Najmat-Al-Sharq
Magazine (Christian, cultural).


10. (SBU) Sargon Lazar is a leading member of the Assyrian
Democratic Movement. A political moderate, he has good
relations with all of Kirkuk's ethnicities. He was forced to
flee to Iran in the 1980s because of his role in opposition to
the Saddam Hussein regime.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) The Christian community works well and closely with the
Kurds and their views are colored accordingly. Both Lazar and
Sako saw the Kurdish takeover of Kirkuk as inevitable and not
necessarily a bad thing for the city as long as the Kurds
managed it properly and avoided violence. The idea of UN
participation in the Article 140 implementation process, however
unrealistic, is very popular with non-Kurd Kikukis. Sako is
optimistic by nature -- we do not know anyone else who expects
terrorism to end in Kirkuk after one year. We cannot judge to
what extent young Muslims are interested in Christianity but
Sako's comments come a few weeks after local press reported the
Bishop in Sulaymaniya said was "destabilizing" for people to
change their traditional religions. End Comment.
BIGUS